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One piece away from a championship - and shot clock trouble explained

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by trugoy, May 23, 2009.

  1. trugoy

    trugoy Member

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    I really think the rockets are just one piece away from a championship.

    Without a doubt the rockets have the best defense in the league, the reason is that everyone is a very good team defender, with the new rule changes i feel that on the ball defense is overrated, there is really nothing one person can do on the ball against most elite scorers, what determines how good defense is played is team defense, defensive rotations etc... and we have by far the best team defense. Without a doubt our defense is good enough to win a championship.

    On offense, there are 2 major problems, shot clock running down and someone has to create something, and fronting against Yao Ming. These two problems are linked together, usually what happens is that it takes so long to try to establish Yao that once that option has been taken away, there is not enough clock to go to a secondary play. Even when Yao does get the ball, it's usually through some tough fronting attempts where he has usually been pushed far enough away from the basket that he needs to kick out and repost(again shot clock issues) or his rhythm has been disrupted so his moves are not as high percentage.

    If you look at all those ugly bricks artest and brooks throws up at the end of the shot clock, you will usually find that before that happened, there was precious seconds run off the clock trying to get the ball inside to Yao.

    Even though we won the Portland series with Yao essentially rendered a decoy, we can't win a championship that way, Yao has to be established in the post. I think Yao has taken a huge step this year, from what I have seen, double teams do not phase him anymore, his turnovers are down huge because he is keeping cool and making good decisions with double teams, and really, fronting is the ONLY thing making him unstoppable.

    Which leads me to the one piece the rockets are missing - someone who is above 6'8 and can drive to the basket. For those of you who noticed, a few times Ron Artest when he couldn't pass it to Yao decided to use the fronted Yao as a screen and basically drive to the basket. Now usually he would pull up for a baseline J, because a) he is too slow and therefore can't beat the rotating Power forward b) he can't finish well enough at the basket and gets blocked a lot.

    But his instincts are spot on, you can consistently beat the front everytime with this move, what's more, you are getting layups at the rim with a rotating power forward in a one on one situation, basically this is instant foul trouble for the other team. We don't even need a kobe or brandon roy, all we need is a good driving wing, like rudy gay, or hedo turkoglu, or even corey magette, and teams just cannot afford to front Yao anymore, else they are giving up free throws or layups everytime.

    And once fronting Yao becomes unacceptable defensive option, shot clock problems become a problem of the past and Rockets offense become championship caliber.

    Btw- mcgrady 3 years ago would be perfect, unfortunately he will never play that way again.

    I think that if Rockets were to trade Ron Artest for a Hedo or a Magette, no doubt in my mind that they become championship contenders.
     
    5 people like this.
  2. RyanB

    RyanB Member

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    I agree with you; i see NO BETTER DEFENSE THAN HOUSTON.
    We have actually the best perimeter defenders (Battier) and Ron.
    and with Yao and Scola if they improve their defense, and even w/o, we can stop any team,and we proved that all year long and also in the playoffs; we could stop Lebron James(Battier and Ron made him a poor little guy), Kobe Bryant also had big problems that he doesn't have against Denver by the way :)
    the lack is our offense:
    1) we need good passers: remember the 1994,1995 rockets: Cassel,Smith,Maxwell,Horry.. everyone was able to pass the ball to Hakeem even when doubleteamed and fronted. So Brooks and Lowry have to work a lot on that.
    2) we need players like Tmac who can drive to the basket, shoot..unfortunately, TMac couldn't make his role all over this years. He is surely overrated, because guys like Kobe or Lebron made their team better in early stage, TMac never did.This leads us to the next point
    3) TMac is no longer a player that we need an that we can lean on, his career is over, we will never get back like he was in his healthy days, and even with that, it would break our team heart, because of his lazy mind and less agressive play.He costs a lot for this team with no benefit, and we proved that we can go far w/o him.SO...
    4) Trading Tmac for 3 or 4 athletic finishing players including a back up center would be great and can give us a strong team to win the champ.
     
  3. BrooksBall

    BrooksBall Member

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    trugoy, that was a really, really good post. I particularly like the point about what type of player we need to take advantage of the Yao fronting issue and how that will open things up for Yao and solve some of the shot clock issues.

    You should post more often, dude.
     
  4. wkaplan888

    wkaplan888 Member

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    I completely agree. Slightly off topic, but I'd really like to discuss this. Bill Simmons came up with this:
    "Rumors are flying that New Orleans might gut the roster this summer and that, as crazy as this sounds, Chris Paul could be had if you can save them a boatload of money in the process. For instance, let's say they were offered the following "Godfather" package from Houston: T-Mac's expiring deal and Brent Barry's expiring deal ($24 million combined), Aaron Brooks, Carl Landry, Shane Battier and Luis Scola for Paul, Peja Stojakovic, James Posey and Tyson Chandler. That trade works even before Paul's extension kicks in, meaning it would save New Orleans $10 million next season and $4 million to $5 million more if they bought out T-Mac. Over the next three years, it saves them $45 million to $50 million potentially, keeps the team afloat in New Orleans, and might even keep them decent with the right moves. Wouldn't that make more sense than gutting the franchise like a fish (which they will), saddling Paul with a terrible team and eventually pushing him to demand a trade?"
    I think the prospect of trading for Paul would be interesting. Now i seriously doubt that we'd do a trade THAT big, we'd be giving yup way too much for too little. But trading say Tracy, Brent, Luis, Shane or a resigned Ron and Brooks for CP3, Peja and Chandler...Thoughts?
     
  5. meh

    meh Member

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    Don't disagree with the theory, although Turgolu is a really bad example. He's pretty much a jump shooter. And although he's a better finisher than Artest, he's not anywhere near what you're proposing.

    People have been raving about Magette for years now. Of course, we've never had the money, and he's never been healthy.

    I don't know if there are any good fits. Wing player who fits the description usually either can't spread the floor or they're simply too good. For example, I think Gerald Wallace would be such a player, except he can't shoot.
     
  6. DaDakota

    DaDakota Balance wins
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    Great post, and what I have been saying for over a year....this is exactly why I like Corey Maggette, because of his game and his fit for this team

    Not to mention the guy scores nearly 20ppg on only 11 or so shots....he is uber efficient.

    DD
     
  7. Pest_Ctrl

    Pest_Ctrl Member

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    I was never high on Corey Maggette. He seemed like someone who only cares to get his numbers. And he is injury prone. Wasn't he called "bad p*rn" by the Warrior fans?
     
  8. trugoy

    trugoy Member

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    New Orleans would not trade Chris Paul, and if they did, they would get much better packages than from us.
     
  9. trugoy

    trugoy Member

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    I disagree with Hedo, I think he's much more than a jump shooter, he's great off the dribble because he is such a mismatch, remember that he is a crunch time guy in Orlando and they give him an iso on last second shots.
     
  10. trugoy

    trugoy Member

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    thanks, i'll try.
     
  11. blender

    blender Member

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    I think you're spot on regarding the team's need for a tall scoring wing with penetrating ability. But I think that in addition to scoring and driving, that player also has to be ideally a superior playmaker, or at the very least an above-average passer. If not, we're left with only the small forward (Battier or Artest) to make the safe entry passes to Yao in the starting lineup.

    I think that mixture of scoring and playmaking ability is what makes (made?) McGrady so valuable to this offense. I'm not familiar enough with Turkoglu or Maggette to know if they can come close to satisfying those both those needs.
     
  12. meh

    meh Member

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    Yes. And when he isos he usually just dribble and put up a jumper. Nothing wrong with that of course, as Artest and T-Mac both do the same thing. But that's the thing. Hedo is just like them. In fact, Hedo's jumper vs. in the paint ratio this year is almost identical to Artests, ~3:1(from 82games).

    Of course, he is a lot better finisher than Artest in the paint. And his lack of drives may have something to do with Orlando's offense. But in terms of what he currently does, it's definitely mostly jump shooting.
     
  13. roxstarz

    roxstarz Member

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    tmac has 1 bad season and everyone hops on the hate bandwaggon. this year we can't trade tmac because he just had surgery and might not even be able to play ever again. why do you want to change our team if we just made it out of the first round in 12 years? the only thing we were missing this year was a healthy tmac and a true backup center.
     
  14. roxstarz

    roxstarz Member

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    tmac doesn't dribble for 10 seconds then take the worst looking shot I have ever seen, artest just isn't a scorer. He's a beastly defender.
     
  15. trugoy

    trugoy Member

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    Could have something to do with the fact that dwight howard can't command a double team and jameer nelson does the dribble drive duties on that team.

    Here are the stats backing that up;

    shooting % at the basket

    Hedo- 49.8%

    Ron -45.1%

    I don't have the data to back this up, but watching orlando's offense, hedo's getting to the basket much more in the playoffs, that's a combination of the defenses they are facing but also because jameer nelson is out, and SVG basically found out what a brick machine skip is when going to the basket.
     
  16. Luckyazn

    Luckyazn Member

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    one piece:



    D W A D E
     
  17. trugoy

    trugoy Member

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    Tmac didn't have one bad season, his game has been in decline for 3 years now, what's worse is that his game is so predicated on his athleticism, the falloff is huge.

    Artest is not a beastly defender, in fact, his team defense is below average on this team, he really is a ball watcher on defense and is late on a lot of rotations and closeouts.
     
  18. redao

    redao Member

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    one biggest piece away.

    one superstar away from contending.
     
  19. arif1127

    arif1127 Member
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    I completely agree. Artest is a great one on one defender when playing against wings that not of elite level athleticism, but use their size or strength to overpower people. Artest is a mediocre defender against quicker players, he couldn't guard Kobe at all. Artest even had trouble staying in front of Trevor Ariza.

    What Artest does well defensively is gamble and play the passing lanes, also if he cheats off his man and gets a hand on the ball, his hands are so strong he routinely strips the dribbler and knocks the ball free.

    Artest is not a "smart" defender either, as we all saw, every time he crowded Kobe on the perimeter he allowed Kobe to drive around him. The "smart" defender backs one step off Kobe hoping he shoots the jumper, and in case he drives the defender has some recovery room. Ron just didn't do that because he knows his advantage defensively is to use his body to over power an offensive player, but Kobe continually took advantage of that move by driving around him.

    I like Ron b/c of the toughness he gives the team, but his defensive abilities are definitely overhyped at this point. He needs to lose 15 lbs over the summer in order to gain some more lateral quickness, that will help his man to man defense tremendously. Ron is strong enough, his feet have slowed over the years and the only way to gain quickness at this point is to become lighter on his feet.
     
    #19 arif1127, May 23, 2009
    Last edited: May 23, 2009
  20. desihooper

    desihooper Member
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    The other great thing about Maggette is that because he gets to the line so often, he's going to get the Rockets into the bonus earlier in pretty much every quarter he plays. This will be key for the Rox because of how good Yao (and Brooks if he stays) is at the stripe. These two can get an extra 4-6 points a game from the stripe if they have someone who can drive, create contact, and get to the line.
     

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