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Offseason pipedream, Big Three

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by valorita, Feb 18, 2016.

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  1. SemisolidSnake

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    If we don't manage to get the very best head coach (and not just a Moreyball sycophant) and coaching staff we can get, it won't matter if we miraculously signed a Big 5 AND the league's best bench.

    Also, Durant is not coming. Why would the hottest person on the market who will be paid the same everywhere, is already enormously rich, but DOES NOT have a Ring come to this city with its ever-present uncertainty and after the season we're having this year? He can go anywhere he wants, and, honestly, he'd be a damn idiot to come here. There are much better options out there where his addition might increase the level to Championship-caliber.

    It doesn't even need in-depth analysis. It doesn't pass a simple smell test from a mile away.
     
  2. Deuce

    Deuce Context & Nuance

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    [TL;DR: Rockets (with Harden) and the ability to generate cap room for 2 max free agents, makes sense for Kevin Durant and Al Horford, especially since Durant wants to play with Horford and be on a title contending team.]

    Count me in as one that believes that Morey & the Rockets will go full force for FA Kevin Durant. With the lure being his friendship and familiarity with James Harden and the ability to add a 2nd MAX impact player to the roster to be competitive for an NBA championship. Being a part of choosing a new coach could also be a key component. Either someone that is familiar like Scott Brooks or a defensive first coach like Jeff Van Gundy/Thibs.

    Why would Kevin Durant choose the Rockets? What is Durant thinking as he heads into free agency?


    WHY/BACKDROP
    WOJ on FoxSporsRadio regarding Kevin Durant….
    http://thebiglead.com/2016/02/20/kevin-durant-lakers-free-agency-warriors/

    Kevin Durant wants to win a Championship right away. Either he wants to do that in Oklahoma City, with the group they have, or he’s going to go somewhere he can win a title right away.

    If Kevin Durant leaves Oklahoma – if he leaves – he wants to be ready to win a Championship right away. He’s at a point in his career [where] he can’t wait 2-3 years or wait for a team to build or hope that it happens.

    Part of his criteria, sources tell me: Is that team good enough to beat Golden State with me on it? Or is it Golden State? Or can I stay in Oklahoma and continue to compete for a Championship?


    Zach Lowe LowePost podcast with David Thorpe (Kevin Durant & Al Horford)
    http://espn.go.com/espnradio/play?id=14808166

    Zach drops a bomb at the ~32 min mark and says: "I have heard from 2 really powerful guys in the league that normally don't BS around say they have heard that Horford is on the short list of guys Durant really wants to play with."

    If KD wants to play WITH Horford, AND be on a roster that is ready to compete NOW for a championship, then the Houston Rockets "with Harden already on the roster" is THE team to get it done. (as opposed to Washington, Orlando who have young guys/coaches that might not appeal to Durant.).


    THE BIG 3 MODEL
    The "Big 3 Heat scenario." The Heat have star Dwyane Wade and attract Lebron James and Chris Bosh. The Heat have money for 2 MAX contracts and make it work. Lebron & Bosh join up with Wade to win a championship.

    The "Big 3 Rockets scenario." The Rockets have star James Harden and attract Kevin Durant and Al Horford. The Rockets have money for 2 MAX contracts and make it work. KD & Horford join up with Harden for a chance to win a championship together, knowing that alone it will be difficult with the Warriors, Spurs, Cavs at the top.

    To get KD, the Rockets have to have buy in from Horford. And that also means Dwight Howard is renounced.


    THE CONTRACTS
    It's obvious that Horford is going to want a 4yr max contract. He could take the 5yr max from Atlanta IF they offer that. Just like Bosh did with the Heat. But if Horford is chasing a ring, he might be ok with the 4yr max from Houston.

    KD could clearly do a 1+1 deal with OKC, but it is unclear if KD wants the long term "security" of a 4yr deal much like LaMarcus Aldridge took. LMA spurned the 1+1 from Portland because he wanted the security AND the chance at a title with the Spurs. Houston gives KD that. Sure KD could sign a 4 or 5 year deal with OKC, but will Westbrook and Ibaka bolt (LA?) when their deals are up next year? Does KD want to be stuck there? How committed is small market OKC to spending money over the next few seasons? These are all factors KD has to consider and ones where the Rockets/Harden situation clearly could be part of the discussion.


    KD's MOTIVATIONS
    If KD does not think OKC, now, with Westbrook and Ibaka can win the title, what does he do? What are his options? He could join the Warriors (be a 3rd wheel but with a great chance of winning the championship as a role player) or he could join the Rockets to help elevate them (be the REASON) they win the tile. We know he wants the title, but the question is does it matter to him "how" he wins the title.

    For KD, if the choice is stay in OKC or go to Houston he would have to evaluate which tandem Westbrook+Ibaka or Harden+Horford would elevate his game to help win a title. And evaluate which organization, Houston/OKC, can add the sufficient role players and coaches to augment the core.


    THE ROSTER
    The Rockets trading DMO for that 1st round pick is a clue to setting up the team for the 2 Max scenario. The Rockets want the cost controlled asset of a cheap 1st round pick versus a more expensive veteran. To get to 2 Max they are going to have to let Ty Lawson (non guaranteed) go, renounce Dwight Howard and let TJones walk in FA. They would have to have done the same for DMO (but instead get the pick). Further, the Rockets will have to trade either Corey Brewer or Trevor Ariza (or Beverley). Obviously we would rather move Brewer but that might be difficult. Ariza could easily be moved because he has value and the Rockets could even get an asset in return (draft pick etc).

    PG: Beverley / Terry (vet min)
    SG: Harden / McDaneils
    SF: Durant / Brewer / Dekker
    PF: Horford / Smith (vet min) / Harrell
    C: Capela /
    + 2016 1st round pick.

    Morey would have to massage the role players a bit, hopefully finding a way to keep Ariza. Or maybe trading McDaniels for a Jared Dudley type gritty role player and adding another PG and Big. Not sure how much cap room is left after adding 2 max players. I'll let the cap guru's punch those numbers. But a Harden/Durant/Horford core would be rock solid and would allow the team to play a fast pace or a defensive slow down pace. Half court offense would immediately get better. Horford probably would play C for much of the time and his ability to space the floor with shooting (including 3pt shooting range) would be huge for the Rockets. Horford would be a decent matchup for Draymond Green.

    People can chalk this up as a pipe dream, but it could happen. It has happened before. And we know Morey would gamble for this.
     
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  3. MrButtocks

    MrButtocks Contributing Member

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    Why would Durant ever come here? We have Harden, but OKC has Westbrook who is at least on Harden's level and IMO actually superior. Is Harden's friendship with Durant that much stronger that he would consider Houston a draw over OKC's superior supporting cast? I don't think so. We're not that deep and Howard can be frustrating to play with, if the reports about Kobe, Gasol, Nash, and Harden are to be believed.

    But if we bring in someone like Horford, who is really underrated, it sounds like something that might actually appeal to Durant. It would be a hell of a trio to build around. We'd just to have Horford's interest as well and he'll be chased as hard as anyone this summer.
     
  4. Deuce

    Deuce Context & Nuance

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    Soooo, DMo is back, but he won't get in the way of Morey going after 2 Max FAs like I previously outlined. Just 1 less asset (Detroit 1st round pick) to help augment the role players.

     
  5. ThatBoyNick

    ThatBoyNick Member

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    Not exactly, we are about 3 mill off of being able to offer two 25% max contracts (Durant, Horford, Conley) even if we dump Brewer and KJ, renounce TJ, Howard + all other expiring's besides Dmo.

    This is what it would look like

    16.8 - Harden
    7.8 - Ariza
    6 - Beverley
    Dmo cap hold - 5.8
    Dekker - 1.7
    Capela - 1.3
    Harrell 1
    roster cap holds - 2.5

    That adds up to roughly 43 million in salary, which leaves 49 million in cap space if we are working with a 92 million dollar salary cap. The max for 25% players will be roughly 26 million starting salary, meaning we are 3 million short of being able to offer 2 full max contracts this summer without dumping one of Bev, Ariza or waiving Dmo.

    Although, we will be fully capable of being able to offer one 25% max (26 mill) and one 20% max (22 mill).

    Another problem could be, will Dmo give us time to chase to 2 max players before he signs a offer sheet? Then will we even want to re-sign him with his problems? Will he sign for a fair contract? Who knows. I think their is a good chance we sign and trade him, or simply waive him if we do indeed hit the lotto and sign two 25% max players.
     
  6. JoeBarelyCares

    JoeBarelyCares Contributing Member

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    Maybe he signs his one year qualifying offer at $3,278,997 to reestablish his value and become an unrestricted FA in 2017.
     
  7. Deuce

    Deuce Context & Nuance

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    What i was trying to allude to is that even though DMo has returned, he won't get in the way of going after 2 max FAs. They will just renounce him, like with TJ. It just sucks that the Rockets won't have the Pistons 1st rounder.

     
  8. Nimo

    Nimo Member

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    They need shooters
     
  9. malakas

    malakas Member

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    I would like to see what team will take on Sewer with only the sweetener of KJ. Especially at the beginning of FA when every team will go after their own targets.
     
  10. OTMax

    OTMax Member

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    Why anyone thinks this team will compete with 2 max players is beyond me. We have a thin bench as is, you want an even thinner one and lose possibly Bev / Ariza on top of it?
     
  11. T FOR 3!!!

    T FOR 3!!! Member

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    It's a different scenario when you have the star power. Same as when the heat and Celtics did it. Players sign for cheap. Guys are attracted to teams with big potential. Sets them up for playoff success to possibly get their own payday.
     
  12. Rileydog

    Rileydog Contributing Member

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    You should post more. Improves things around here.
     
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  13. Deuce

    Deuce Context & Nuance

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    Kevin Durant is a shooter. Al Horford has mid-range and 3pt range. They are pretty good!
     
  14. Deuce

    Deuce Context & Nuance

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    The Miami Heat didn't seem to share that opinion when they took on LeBron and Bosh. Worked out fine for them. Much easier to get role players than top flight difference making stars.

    Just this year Morey was able to add Thornton and Josh Smith as minimum vet role players. Not bad bench guys. And probably would be even better surrounded by a troika of Harden/Durant/Horford.
     
  15. larsv8

    larsv8 Contributing Member

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    If we signed Horford and Durant, we would still have Bev, Harden and Capella to round out the starting five.

    We would still have Ariza, Brewer, Dekker, McDaniels and Harrell under contract for the bench.

    Thornton, Terry and Smith are vet minimum options.

    Gentile and whomever we draft with our 2nd round pick are also options.
     
  16. Rocket River

    Rocket River Member

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    I can see this happening

    Rocket River
     
  17. malakas

    malakas Member

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    You can't sign Durant and Horford and have Brewer and Ariza in the bench.
     
  18. larsv8

    larsv8 Contributing Member

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    Why not.
     
  19. FTW Rockets FTW

    FTW Rockets FTW Contributing Member

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    My ideal starting 5 next year:

    Bev
    Harden
    Ariza
    Durant
    Horford / Dwight
     
  20. malakas

    malakas Member

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    look at the posts above. You must dump one or the other to clear enough capspace. And Kj.
     

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