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[Official] Astros Off Season

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Castor27, Oct 24, 2023.

  1. Wulaw Horn

    Wulaw Horn Member

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    5 years and 140M. Like the Correa offer. Designed to get turned down. Hope I’m wrong.
     
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  2. Marshall Bryant

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    I put making an offer and wanting a gazillion Dollars in the same starting place. Talking is better than not, but just barely.
     
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  3. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    I made an offer to Elon to take over Tesla, we'll see how it goes.
     
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  4. Marshall Bryant

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    Other reports are of a 6 year $180M offer which Correa MAY NOT have received from his Agent. But the only offers over 6 years by Crane have included arbitration years.
     
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  5. Tomstro

    Tomstro Member

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    I agree it will be a token offer
     
  6. J.R.

    J.R. Member

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    Time to go win one more and cement our dynasty

     
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  7. Marshall Bryant

    Supporting Member

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    Good Luck.
     
  8. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

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    Let's look at a Bregman extension from a different angle.

    Alex is one of the most driven, goal oriented guys in MLB and all of them are driven goal oriented guys so that's saying something.

    So let's say Alex has identified 2 goals: make the HOF and $400M total in career earnings.

    To make the HOF it will likely take about 70 WAR (69.4 is avg HOF 3b / Scott Rolen finished w/ 70.1) assuming the avg of his 2022-23 seasons in 2024 = 4.7 bWAR and puts him at 40.1.

    After this contract, his age 30 season he will be at $108.2M in earnings so needs another $291.8M.

    Let's say Alex expects to regress by 0.4 WAR per year starting at age 32.
    Age 31: 4.7 = 44.8
    Age 32: 4.3 = 49.1
    Age 33: 3.9 = 53.0
    Age 34: 3.5 = 56.5
    Age 35: 3.1 = 59.6
    Age 36: 2.7 = 62.3
    Age 37: 2.3 = 64.6
    Age 38: 1.9 = 66.5
    Age 39: 1.5 = 68.0
    Age 40: 1.1 = 69.1
    Age 41: 0.7 = 69.8
    Age 42: 0.3 = 70.1

    That means he will need 12 yrs to get to 70 WAR, so if he expects to play through age 42 season to get his $291.2M = $9.7M per WAR:

    6 yr deal = $215.3M ($35.88 AAV)
    7 yr deal = $237.6M ($33.94 AAV)
    8 yr deal = $256.0M ($32.0 AAV)
    9 yr deal = $270.6M ($30.07 AAV)
    10 yr deal = $281.3M ($28.13 AAV)
    11 yr deal = $288.1M ($26.29 AAV)
    12 yr deal = $291.2M ($24.27 AAV)

    Now I have no idea if those are really his goals, but they seam reasonable which makes this quite sobering.

    This is why it's so important to lock up players before they hit FA.
     
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  9. Major

    Major Member

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    So IF his goal is something you made up, and IF his WAR/yr is what you made up, and IF he plays to the age you made up, then what he would want from a contract (which is unrelated to what the market will actually give him), is really high. And that is why it's so important to lock up players? "made up" sounds harsh, but I don't mean it that way - just that it's guesswork. If any of those assumptions are wrong, all the math falls apart.
     
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  10. The Beard

    The Beard Contributing Member

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    I really think we do also. Alex is different than most and I think it's more important to him to be a lifelong Astro than it is to squeeze out every dollar that he can. Now for sure he isn't going to take a deal that isn't fair, but I think it gets done
     
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  11. The Beard

    The Beard Contributing Member

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    Lol, ok bud, I was just quoting what you said

    You don't need to make things simple for me, I understand baseball very well. I also understand fans like you who don't really seem to understand the game but just think get another bat don't worry about defense or roster construction. Don't even worry about platoon splits just get another guy who mashes LHP lol
     
  12. The Beard

    The Beard Contributing Member

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    1B is actually harder on the lower extremities than the OF. Yordan to 1B simply isn't going to happen
     
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  13. The Beard

    The Beard Contributing Member

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    I'm assuming you mean Seattle here?

    Before the past year I would agree, but the RSN deal there has really put a strain on them financially

    In fact how the whole TV situation plays out over the next couple of years is going to go a long way towards defining what baseball finances look like moving forward. The huge contracts we see are only possible because of mega TV money. Like it or not, cable TV is going away. MLB is going to have to figure out how to keep the mega money coming from broadcasting games somehow.

    While baseball is far and away my favorite sport to follow, reality is it is nowhere near as popular as the NFL and nationally it lags behind the NBA also. MLB can't count on the huge profits simply from their playoffs to carry the load, there has to be huge money for local teams regular season broadcasting rights or they simply can't continue down the financial path they are on. I have no idea what the answer is or how it will play out, but it's gonna be pretty fascinating to see
     
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  14. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    Lol okay Dusty.

    I get that you think you are brilliant justifying awful hitters based on loose arguments about defense, but the reality of baseball is that you can't win if you can't score and the best way to take advantage of elite 7th, 8th, and 9th inning pitcher is by getting guys who can get them a lead.

    There's simply a more direct benefit from guys who can hit than guys who are marginally better in the field.
     
  15. The Beard

    The Beard Contributing Member

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    That's one of the things though...most fans think of Chapman as power and think he has much more power than Alex

    Alex has had a higher slugging percentage for each of the past 3 years

    If 2019 would have never happened for Alex and his numbers there were more in line with the rest of his career, Astros fans would have a much higher respect for how good he is. He was so good in 19 though that now that those numbers aren't his norm, most fans are kind of disappointed in what he is. Truth is, Alex is a stud. I'll be shocked if he doesn't get a LOT more than whatever Chapman ends up signing for
     
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  16. The Beard

    The Beard Contributing Member

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    Yankees were damn good, but i'll take out 7 straight ALCS over their 4 straight and 5 out of 6. We went to the WS 4 times so far, they went 5. So yes, their playoff success was very good, but 7 straight ALCS (and counting) trumps that run

    The Giants of the 10's? Come on man. They made the NLCS in 2010, 2012 and 2014 and won. So 3 CS appearances and 3 WS appearances vs 7 straight and 4. This one isn't close

    The Braves of the 90's can make a strong argument. 8 Straight NLCS and 5 World Series, so they are 1 up on us in both. We have 1 more Championship so far. I'll give you that this one could go either way but personally i'll take the side that has an extra ring!

    Either way, my post was in reply to the guy saying we need to make a big signing or we will continue to have playoff failures, which is asinine.
     
  17. The Beard

    The Beard Contributing Member

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    He doesn't come across as the guy that is counting dollars. I mean none of us really know what makes these guys tick, but that certainly isn't how Alex comes across

    As far as the HOF goes, I really hope i'm wrong, but I think all of these guys including Altuve are going to have a hard time getting in.

    Problem is the only ones with a say in it is the media. They are keeping Bonds/Clemens and the rest of the steroid guys out of the HOF. Now compare the hatred from the media towards those steroid guys and the hatred from the media towards the Astros for the scandal. There is a significant portion of the writers who will simply never vote for anyone associated with the 2017 Astros. I hope i'm wrong here, but I don't think I am. The writers can do what they want, and they went all in on Astro hate, and many of them still do. Hell our own new beat writer is on record saying she has no respect for Altuve.

    Altuve/Bregman are likely gonna have to count their success in rings, not caps
     
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  18. The Beard

    The Beard Contributing Member

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    Lol, ok man. You can go FK yourself with the Dusty comment

    Funny thing is, you are the one thinking about the game more like Dusty. Like him, you could care less about platoon splits and how good Meyers has been against LHP, you just want to sign another guy who also rips LHP because he had a big season last year.

    In any case, I won't waste my time replying to you anymore so you can have the last word regardless of how stupid it will be
     
  19. The Beard

    The Beard Contributing Member

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    I don't think they will make that kind of offer to Kyle. With Carlos and his injury history, they knew they were not going to sign him. With Kyle, I don't think they will get to where Kyle would have to be to sign him, cause Kyle has been clear he wants to get to free agency. But I do think they would prefer to keep him if possible so I don't think they will make an offer that would be likely to insult him
     
  20. Wulaw Horn

    Wulaw Horn Member

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    Yes- meant Seattle. not sure if you ever listen to our pod but we did a deep dive into the RSN conundrum at the beginning of the offseason that a lot of people thought was pretty good. I learned a lot about the finances of baseball, but was pretty conversant before hand on the TV money thing.
    bottom line- baseball on TV is a hugely valuable product (more so than the NBA by a lot) on the local level and routinely kills all other programming on a day in and day out basis. But, even in the best of markets it’s 10% of the population that they get as a share, and that’s basically watching for “free” not over the air obviously but cable wise. I’m bullish on baseball TV economics long term because it commands a lot of attention locally, but it is a changing environment for sure.
    Also- I wouldn’t bet on cable and satellite becoming extinct. Streaming devices are expensive and you see consumers complaining that it is too much and that there isn’t enough content on the streamers. things get unbundled and they then get rebundled- it’s a thing.
     

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