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[Official] Astros Off Season

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Castor27, Nov 7, 2022.

  1. Landry's Tooth

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    Just looking at the books I don't think the Dodgers are serious on Verlander unless his number drops.

    Spotrac has about 98.5 million for:
    Freeman, Betts, Taylor, Muncy, Treinen, Hudson, Barnes, and Shelby Miller.

    They then have arbitration for:
    Urias, Buehler, Smith, Gonsolin, and May.

    I would ballpark those at about a total of 30 million based on performance and year of arb.

    If you figure another 10 million for non arb players and another 5 for minors portion of 40 man, then they are at about 145 million.

    Kershaw reupped for 20 but not official yet as far as i can tell. Anderson back at 13 million.

    So they are at 178 million with holes at shortstop, centerfield, and dh. Those are MAJOR holes too. If the season started today they would be using Trayce Thompson and rookies Michael Busch and Diego Cartaya in the everyday lineup. They could move Taylor to 2B and Lux to SS and plug in Andy Pages instead of Busch. It's just not something I see them going with to spend on Verlander.

    I'm guessing they go Swanson at 25 million and Benintendi in LF or a Nimmo or Kiermaier in centerfield. Then they gamble with Cartaya as a backup catcher and DH...

    I figure they are spending 50 million to fill holes.

    So figure they are at 228 million after.

    They did spend 280 last year with Bauer included. He's costing them 35 this year but nothing against the tax.

    So last year they spent about 245 on the active team. That leaves them about 17 million for Verlander.

    Also, looking at needs they have Urias, Gonsolin, Anderson, and Kershaw. Buehler is out for TJ. May is coming back and Bobby Miller likely ready. So they have 6 starters now already.

    So yes, they could sign him but then would likely be spending more than last year... possible but not sure if that's worth it to them. It also puts them in repeater tax when they could reset it by going with what they have.
     
  2. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

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    They have been over the largest CBT at least 4 years in a row. There are no additional penalties above what they keep paying each year

    Their CBT payroll was over $300M last year.

    Why would they even care or worry about adding Verlander hurting them in any way?
     
    Bregatron likes this.
  3. prospecthugger

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    That's fair, though I think it could help Dusty have a quicker leash on some of the Young guys like Brown or Whitley if he gets a start. Verlander averaged over 6 innings a start, but the Astros wont need that from their starters. If Brown is struggling with command and has the bases loaded with 1 out in the 5th, the Astros could use Abreu to limit the damage, knowing they'll have the arms to finish the game.
     
  4. Landry's Tooth

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    I understand, but dropping out of the tax for a year will save them money in future years.

    Verlander is a luxury for them, like us. The difference is that luxury will cost them more.

    He would bump May and Miller to AAA or bullpen without an injury. May has struggled to stay healthy but is 25 this year and has a career era of 3.26 in 25 starts. He's good value.

    So you're paying 40 million +tax to upgrade from a guy with upside to a better pitcher with less injury risk.

    I'm not saying they don't do it. I'm saying it would mean pushing their budget out further and blocking some of their own guys. There's also risk Bauer could return from suspension and then you have to cut him loose. His salary could suddenly count for tax purposes...

    I just see a lot of reasons for them not to and one reason for them to. No downside in doing a meeting though...
     
    everyday eddie and tehG l i d e like this.
  5. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Only if the other teams suck and can't score on the backend of the bullpen.
     
  6. the shark

    the shark Member

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    Anderson signed with the Angels
     
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  7. Landry's Tooth

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    I don't think this eliminates your point completely but 2019 they were 4th in total payroll behind Yankees, Red Sox, and Cubs. They were #1 in 2020 but the tax was suspended for covid year.

    2021 they were #1 again but they were behind the Mets last season including Bauer who only counted 4.5 million against the tax. If you adjust for the 30 ish they weren't taxed on they would be behind the Phillies and Yankees in tax bill.
     
  8. Landry's Tooth

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    That's right, my bad... the LA part threw me off...

    So they are 30 million under last year's spending pace, not 17.

    Thank you for catching....
     
  9. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    I'm not a big Dusty fan, and don't know how much credit he should get, but Javier threw 148 2/3 innings last year, and didn't have the endurance issues he had in the past (e.g., fastball velo dropping in the 3/4th innings). Garcia has handled 150 innings well (though not as well as some of this board give him credit).

    If Brown pitches well, I think Dusty is going to give him innings. Sure, he might get pulled with bases juiced in the 5th, but I don't see that happening much. I worry more about LMJ getting hurt and the guys after Brown going short more than Brown getting few innings.

    I'd say the Astros starters thrwing 900+ innings is a near sure thing without a lot of injuries.
     
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  10. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Is he suppose to be the long man? I thought he was a Roogy.
     
  11. awc713

    awc713 Member

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    One bat I like, who I suggested at the deadline for an Odo swap (he went on a tear in the 2nd half, too) is Lars Nootbaar on STL. Solid hitting OF’er. Price may be a tad high with how he ended the year. I believe he’s a switch hitter (I know he hits left at a minimum) but could be making that up.

    would also be a cool name reminiscent of Kirk Sarloos or Rockets’ Bostjan Nachbar

    edit: I also like the Kluber rumor. Good but low candidate. Maybe with his high floor he makes some of our other arms more tradeable.
     
    #2931 awc713, Dec 1, 2022
    Last edited: Dec 1, 2022
  12. Landry's Tooth

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    Urias
    Gonsolin
    Kershaw
    May
    Miller

    That would still push May or Miller. That might be ok with Miller in AAA getting callup if injuries.

    Just saying they could give Miller the job or sign someone like Syndergaard, Eovaldi, Greinke, Manaea, Kluber, or Walker to stay under tax for a year to reset repeater...
     
  13. rockbox

    rockbox Around before clutchcity.com

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    Tamarez has all the stuff but he has command issues. He threw like 6 no-hit innings during a game but gave up like 5 walks. He walks someone every other inning on average.
     
  14. xcrunner51

    xcrunner51 Contributing Member

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    He had basically as many > 1.0 IP outings as 1.0 IP or less.

    He's not a long man in the sense that he won't go 5IP but he was effectively the pen's long man for most of the season. He pitched up to 3.0IP in one game last year.

    Perusing the game logs, Abreu and Maton both got a decent number of 2 IP appearances as well.
     
    prospecthugger and Snake Diggit like this.
  15. eliefor3

    eliefor3 Member

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    This I think is the biggest cheating that is allowable in baseball. How can one team be financially secure enough to have a 300 million payroll and then have that team compete with teams like brewers and pirates.
    Yes the salary tax has made some teams hesitate to over spend but the top spending teams can always go over the tax and still turn profit.
    The Astros were at roughly 212 to dodgers 250+ can you imagine this team with Springer still on board? Or Cole? Or heck even of they let their agents walk, replacing them with a good cf and possibly lf, they would still prob be under dodgers salary.
     
  16. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    That and he's not on the 40 man roster...
     
  17. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    I will say I didn't notice that he got an extra out or 2 as often as he did. When I say long man, I'm typically thinking the 2-4 inning outings to keep the pen from having to use 5 relievers when the starter goes short, or having to use more than 1-2 relievers in a blowout. It just seemed like the Astros still had plenty of times with 2-3 relievers unavailable for as little as the bullpen was used.
     
  18. Landry's Tooth

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    I find those teams usually have trouble producing talent in their farm systems which is why they have to spend.

    The Dodgers have had a good farm system but still they silly things like flip Verdugo for Betts at his peak so they can give him crazy money.

    Seager, Lux, Buehler, Urias, Smith, Verdugo, Ryu, May, etc. is a decent return on the farm but too often they flip them or let them walk for pricier options.
     
  19. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    The Dodgers have one of the most stacked farm systems that they use appropriately to improve the MLB team (either via promotion or trades).

    Did you really say Verdugo for Betts was a "silly" decision? You must not have many Boston friends...

    Big market teams have the advantage due to more people living there which means bigger TV deals which means bigger payrolls. That doesn't automatically grant them a sound minor league system, a savvy front office, or a good scouting department. The Dodgers have used all their vast resources wisely throughout the organization... as opposed to some other big market teams that spend at the big league level, but don't apply the same scrutiny to the lower levels (or leave the same old guys in charge of everything, like the Yankees have for years).

    And in the end, anybody can win any short series... the fact that the Astros have avoided a first round upset all these years is amazing.
     
    #2939 Nick, Dec 1, 2022
    Last edited: Dec 1, 2022
  20. Nook

    Nook Member

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    There are limits though.... they clearly want the ability to plug in a better bat at the catcher spot when needed... and that is a big part of the appeal of Contreras.

    The jump in OPS from roughly 70 to 130 is massive.
     

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