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[Official] Astros Off-Season

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Castor27, Nov 3, 2021.

  1. Redfish81

    Redfish81 Member

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    People are just looking at the numbers. Fangraphs already updated their payroll page by adding Neris. The current luxury tax payroll right now is estimated at 192ish million. That also doesn't include the extra 4.75 million the Astros have to leave open in case Odorizzi reaches his incentives. Including the incentives, that leaves the Astros with about 11-12 million to spend to get back to last year's payroll.

    Nobody knows what the luxury tax will be with the CBA negotiations. If last year's payroll is as high as they are willing to go then people are right in saying they can't afford Correa without dumping a bunch of salary.....
     
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  2. DVauthrin

    DVauthrin Contributing Member

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    From a payroll perspective, Jim Crane is running his organization much closer to the Dodgers’ model, and I commend him for it. He’s a great owner. I also don’t expect him to go over the luxury tax threshold every year.

    However, if he continues with his stance of not offering contracts longer than six years to elite players, the Astros will struggle to retain their elite talent once they hit free agency, and that will eventually catch up to the organization.

    You win championships in professional sports with elite players. If you are unwilling to pay the going market rate for elite players, you will eventually struggle to compete for and win championships. The Astros will still be good enough in 2022 to win the American League whether Correa returns or not, but you can’t keep letting your elite players walk because you are unwilling to pay market value for their services and reasonably expect to compete at the highest level. It eventually takes its toll.

    A seven-year, $250 million contract essentially covers Correa’s age 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32 and 33 seasons since his birthday is in late September. It’s not like it takes him until age 40 like the Pujols contract did for the Angels or Cabrera’s does for the Tigers. I agree with you that the Dodgers will regret giving Betts 13 years down the road, but they also won a World Series with him. I’m pretty sure they are alright with that trade off. Also, the Astros are more than capable of having a top-10 payroll in the sport every year, which Crane has done. They can afford such a contract.

    Furthermore, this trend of elite players in their primes looking for long contracts isn’t going away. Those players are also incredibly difficult to replace, and signing an above-average player to fill the hole isn’t going to do it. Eventually, if you keep letting your elite players leave as free agents, your organization’s talent level declines, and you aren’t competing for pennants and World Series anymore.
     
    #1222 DVauthrin, Nov 27, 2021
    Last edited: Nov 27, 2021
  3. DVauthrin

    DVauthrin Contributing Member

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    I understand why the comments are being made. My perspective is James Click should have deals lined up or in the works so the Astros can afford either Correa or a suitable replacement (moving Odorizzi should be a top priority now). Signing Hector Neris should not stop Crane and Click from addressing a much bigger need.
     
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  4. Jeremy Williams

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    absolutely
     
  5. Jeremy Williams

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    The Astros FO has done remarkably well at managing contracts.
     
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  6. Jeremy Williams

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    I think it’s a false assumption that there is a much bigger need than our pitching staff. We’ve added two important pieces to the pitching staff for that reason.
     
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  7. Jeremy Williams

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    It isn’t simply Carlos’ age that makes that a bad deal. It’s guaranteed $ that impacts our budget for every one of those years. The risk outweighs the reward.
     
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  8. DVauthrin

    DVauthrin Contributing Member

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    Signing a potential ace in Justin Verlander was an important signing. Signing Hector Neris to a contract with an AAV of $8.5M does not belong in the same category. He’s not an elite reliever and a reliever’s performance fluctuates too much.
     
    #1228 DVauthrin, Nov 27, 2021
    Last edited: Nov 27, 2021
  9. Jeremy Williams

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    There are so many options available. It Tucker or Alvarez opt to not take an extension, we will have $ to shop for other players. This approach is exactly how we keep relevant. Just look at the Cardinals over the past 2 decades. That is Crane’s vision.
     
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  10. DVauthrin

    DVauthrin Contributing Member

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    The Astros can afford a contract with an AAV of $35M. Jose Altuve currently makes $29M. Verlander was making $33M each of the past two seasons.
     
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  11. DVauthrin

    DVauthrin Contributing Member

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    If Tucker and Alvarez are unwilling to take extensions, what caliber of player do you expect to sign at an equal or cheaper cost in free agency to adequately replace their performance? You aren’t going to get elite hitters in their prime to take less, so you are left taking chances on older veterans that may decline at any time, or hoping your farm system produces the next Alvarez or Tucker. You can trade for a short-term rental (Byron Buxton comes to mind now), but you have to pay them or they will leave a season or two after they are acquired. In Buxton’s case, he is a free agent after this season.

    I don’t want to be a slightly above-average team like the Cardinals have morphed into. It took a miracle 19-game winning streak for them to make the playoffs this year as a wildcard, and they were barely above .500 in the shortened season. They were fortunate they drew a young Braves team in 2019 and made it to the NLCS, where they were steamrolled by a hot Nationals team. Before that, they missed the playoffs in three straight seasons.

    They are not a real threat to win the National League or World Series right now because they have far too many holes throughout their roster.
     
    #1231 DVauthrin, Nov 27, 2021
    Last edited: Nov 27, 2021
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  12. HTown2017Champs

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    Spotrac has us at $21.6M in tax space after the Neris signing.

    Non-tender Montero to save about $3.1M.
    Package Taylor Jones or someone with Pedro Baez for a PTBNL as a salary dump to clear his $6.25M.

    Astros get: SS Paul DeJong
    Cardinals get: RHP Jake Odorizzi

    In DeJong, we get a stopgap SS. Low OBP but great glove and good pop. Buys time for Pena. Trading Odo sheds salary, in STL he can be their #4, after Flaherty, Waino, and Matz. Per Spotrac, this is a net savings of $3.50M against the tax (we pay about the same ). Maybe one or both sides add a PTBNL or two to make ends meet.

    Astros get: RHP Chris Bassitt
    Athletics get: RHP Bryan Abreu, OF Chas McCormick

    Astros get another ace. Athletics get a high-upside arm and a plug and play OF with great defensive stats and potential if he cuts his strikeouts. Per Spotrac estimates, it's a $7.65M net increase in payroll.

    Astros get: OF Byron Buxton, LHP Taylor Rogers
    Twins get: RHP Jose Urquidy, RHP Forrest Whitley, RHP Peter Solomon, 3B Joe Perez

    Reluctantly trading Whitley for a duo of a stud 5 tool CF (and gambling on his health) and a great lefty reliever. Joe Perez, who I've grown to lie, is tough to lose but I think the Twins will be looking for a Donaldson successor at 3B. Urquidy also fits right into their rotation that lost Berrios and can help the Twins try to make a quick turnaround in the weak AL Central. Net increase of $11.45M in payroll.

    1. Buxton CF
    2. Brantley LF
    3. Tucker RF
    4. Altuve 2B
    5. Alvarez DH
    6. Bregman 3B
    7. DeJong SS
    8. Gurriel 1B
    9. Maldonado C

    Bench: Castro/Diaz/Siri/reserve LHH on minimum

    Rotation: LMJ/Verlander/Bassitt/Valdez/Garcia
    Pen: Pressly/Stanek/Neris/Maton/Rogers/Taylor/Javier/Dubin

    Balanced lineup, everyone except 7 and 9 has high OBP. Six guys have 30+ HR potential. Moved Altuve back to an "RBI spot," Buxton leads off.
    Still have about $15.35M in luxury tax room at the deadline, and still some ammo. Korey Lee, Jeremy Pena, Pedro Leon, and Hunter Brown are afforded time to develop and get ready. Also should have a few open spots on the 40 man for when guys do get called up, removing an immediate need to DFA someone.
     
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  13. Jeremy Williams

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    They have 1 more ring that we do in the last 2 decades. They've been very reliable to be a competitive team year in and year out. As far as who you get to replace their performances? If it comes to that, there are always options. Great franchises learn how to solve these problems.
     
  14. Jeremy Williams

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    Look at our projected team salary. We do not have 35M available.
     
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  15. Redfish81

    Redfish81 Member

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    I wouldn't use Spotrac

    Just a quick glance shows Framber being in "arb 1" but has a salary as only 575k. Your number doesn't include an extra 4.75 million for Odorizzi's incentives. Gurriel also has 2 million in incentives for plate appearances that he easily reaches if healthy. Castro's salary isn't 3.5 next year. It is 4.25 after incentives he reached in 2021. So in 30 seconds I just knocked off about 9 million from your number.
     
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  16. DVauthrin

    DVauthrin Contributing Member

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    At the moment, you are correct. Unless Crane is willing to pay the luxury tax this season, the Astros would have to trade some contracts to free up space for Correa or a replacement hitter signed in free agency. That’s precisely why the Neris’ signing at the reported annual salary surprises me.

    However, that wasn’t my point. My point was the Astros have the revenue stream to afford one contract in the AAV range of $30-35M seven years from now. They have maintained a payroll between $180-$200M during most of this run, and the other big contracts currently on the roster will have expired by that time. They had two contracts with similar AAV’s (Altuve and Verlander) for the 2019 and 2020 seasons, and Greinke was also making $24.7M last season.
     
    #1236 DVauthrin, Nov 27, 2021
    Last edited: Nov 27, 2021
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  17. J.R.

    J.R. Contributing Member

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  18. raining threes

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    You might want to checkout how Luhnow built his team and how he went about retaining players.

    It's nothing like what Click has done.
     
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  19. jiggyfly

    jiggyfly Member

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    It's amazing how fast the hot takes are with minimal facts to back them up.

    Everybody wants to focus on Baez and ignore Stanek.
     
  20. Major

    Major Member

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    But Stanek only made $1.1MM. If the Astros had signed Neris to that kind of deal, I don't think anyone would complain. But middle relievers are notoriously fickle. There are few that are consistently elite, and those are the ones that can command $8MM+/yr. Outside of 2019, Neris hasn't been exceptional at all, let alone consistently great. It just seems unnecessary and a poor allocation of resources when you talk about payroll constraints for your team. There's a good chance you could sign someone for $2 or $3MM or pull someone from the minors and get equivalent performance.
     

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