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[Official] Astros Off-Season

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Castor27, Nov 3, 2021.

  1. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Agree for the most part. I think Leon hitting is a lot more important than Lee as I expect Astros can find someone they like in free agency at catcher cheap and still have money for pitching and 1B.
     
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  2. J.R.

    J.R. Contributing Member

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    https://theathletic.com/3231273/2022/04/06/aces-project-rankings-mlb-starting-pitchers/

    26. Lance McCullers
    42. Luis Garcia
    49. Framber Valdez

    For the past three years, we’ve engaged in an exercise to determine who are the aces in baseball. Once again we surveyed a collection of 20 executives, analysts and scouts to determine the best of the best. We contacted general managers, assistant general managers and special assistants to the general manager. We contacted scouts with decades of experience and former players who segued into front office roles. We contacted analysts who entered the game through the world of numbers. From this diverse pool, we are trying to find a consensus.

    Each member of the panel filled out a survey featuring 75 pitchers. The list included the top 60 in FanGraphs’ version of wins above replacement in 2021, plus a collection of 15 others we thought merited consideration. (We left off several highly touted pitchers who have logged minimal innings in recent years, which is why you won’t see Justin Verlander, Noah Syndergaard, Stephen Strasburg or Luis Severino on this list.)

    For each player, the panelist provided a scouting grade, from a No. 1 pitcher to a No. 5. This is the present-day grade on these pitchers: Who they are right now. If a respondent wanted to denote that the pitcher could one day become an ace, the grade included an asterisk, classifying status as an “applicant.”

    The grading system is also straightforward. A No. 1 grade nets five points, a No. 2 grade nets four, No. 3 nets three, No. 4 nets two and No. 5 nets one. An asterisk adds a half point to the score. As we did last year, we culled the list down to a top 50, split into five tiers:

    Tier 1 (100) — The Inner Circle: The unanimous No. 1s.

    Tier 2 (99.5 to 90) — Aces: The pitchers you can trust all regular season and again in October.

    Tier 3 (89.5 to 80) — The Pool of Applicants: The men who might one day call themselves aces.

    Tier 4 (79.5 to 60) — No. 2s and No. 3s: Those with lower ceilings, but still elevated floors. It should be noted — these guys are awesome at baseball.

    Tier 5 (59.5 and below) — Guys: Everyone else. Or, in the parlance of the scouting world, “just a guy.”

    Spoiler alert: There were no unanimous No. 1s this year. Two men came very close, and three were within shouting distance. But there still were enough questions about health and performance and the fickleness of the profession to prevent any perfect scores. With that in mind, let’s get to it.

    Who are the aces in baseball? This is our best attempt at telling you.

    Tier 2 (99.5 — 90) — Aces

    1. Corbin Burnes, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers
    Rating: 99.5
    Ace votes: 19
    Applicant votes: 1
    Age: 27
    2021 stats: 11-5, 2.43 ERA, 167 IP, 12.6 K/9, 1.63 FIP
    2021 rating: 71

    2. Jacob deGrom, RHP, New York Mets

    Rating: 98
    Ace votes: 19
    Age: 33
    2021 stats: 7-2, 1.08 ERA, 92 IP, 14.3 K/9, 1.24 FIP
    2021 rating: 100

    3. Walker Buehler, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers

    Rating: 97.5
    Ace votes: 16
    Applicant votes: 3
    Age: 27
    2021 stats: 16-4, 2.47 ERA, 207.2 IP, 9.2 K/9, 3.16 FIP
    2021 rating: 98.5

    4. Gerrit Cole, RHP, New York Yankees

    Rating: 97.5
    Ace votes: 17
    Applicant votes: 1
    Age: 31
    2021 stats: 16-8, 3.23 ERA, 181.1 IP, 12.1 K/9, 2.92 FIP
    2021 rating: 100

    5. Max Scherzer, RHP, New York Mets

    Rating: 96
    Ace votes: 17
    Age: 37
    2021 stats: 15-4, 2.46 ERA, 179.1 IP, 11.7 K/9, 1.96 FIP
    2021 rating: 92

    6. Brandon Woodruff, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers

    Rating: 92.5
    Ace votes: 10
    Applicant votes: 5
    Age: 29
    2021 stats: 9-10, 2.56 ERA, 179.1 IP, 10.6 K/9, 2.96 FIP
    2021 rating: 76.5

    7. Shane Bieber, RHP, Cleveland Guardians

    Rating: 92
    Ace votes: 10
    Applicant votes: 4
    Age: 26
    2021 stats: 7-4, 3.17 ERA, 96.2 IP, 12.5 K/9, 3.03 FIP
    2021 rating: 97

    Tier 3 (89.5 to 80) — The Pool of Applicants

    8. Zack Wheeler, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies

    Rating: 88.5
    Ace votes: 9
    Applicant votes: 1
    Age: 31
    2021 stats: 14-10, 2.78 ERA, 213.1 IP, 10.4 K/9, 2.59 FIP
    2021 rating: 63.5

    9. Shohei Ohtani, RHP, Los Angeles Angels

    Rating: 85.5
    Ace votes: 4
    Applicant votes: 7
    Age: 27
    2021 stats: 9-2, 3.18 ERA, 130.1 IP, 10.8 K/9, 3.52 FIP
    2021 rating: Not ranked

    10. Julio Urías, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers

    Rating: 84
    Ace votes: 5
    Applicant votes: 6
    Age: 25
    2021 stats: 20-3, 2.96 ERA, 185.2 IP, 9.5 K/9, 3.13 FIP
    2021 rating: 62

    11. Sandy Alcantara, RHP, Miami Marlins

    Rating: 82.5
    Ace votes: 2
    Applicant votes: 10
    Age: 26
    2021 stats: 9-15, 3.19 ERA, 205.2 IP, 8.8 K/9, 3.42 FIP
    2021 rating: Not ranked

    12. Trevor Bauer, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers

    Rating: 81.5
    Ace votes: 3
    Applicant votes: 5
    Age: 31
    2021 stats: 8-5, 2.59 ERA, 107.2 IP, 11.5 K/9, 4.03 FIP
    2021 rating: 86.5

    13. Jack Flaherty, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals

    Rating: 80
    Applicant votes: 8
    Age: 26
    2021 stats: 9-2, 3.22 ERA, 78.1 IP, 9.8 K/9, 4.22 FIP
    2021 rating: 88.5

    14. Aaron Nola, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies

    Rating: 80
    Ace votes: 2
    Applicant votes: 3
    Age: 28
    2021 stats: 9-9, 4.63 ERA, 180.2 IP, 11.1 K/9, 3.37 FIP
    2021 rating: 82.5

    Tier 4 (79.5 to 60) — No. 2s and No. 3s

    15. Robbie Ray, LHP, Seattle Mariners

    Rating: 78.5
    Ace votes: 2
    Applicant votes: 3
    Age: 30
    2021 stats: 13-7, 2.84 ERA, 193.1 IP, 11.5 K/9, 3.69 FIP
    2021 rating: Not ranked

    16. Max Fried, LHP, Atlanta Braves

    Rating: 77
    Ace votes: 1
    Applicant votes: 4
    Age: 28
    2021 stats: 14-7, 3.04 ERA, 165.2 IP, 8.6 K/9, 3.31 FIP
    2021 rating: 78.5

    17. Nathan Eovaldi, RHP, Boston Red Sox

    Rating: 76
    Age: 32
    2021 stats: 11-9, 3.75 ERA, 182.1 IP, 9.6 K/9, 2.79 FIP
    2021 rating: Not ranked

    18. Lucas Giolito, RHP, Chicago White Sox

    Rating: 76
    Applicant votes: 6
    Age: 27
    2021 stats: 11-9, 3.53 ERA, 178.2 IP, 10.1 K/9, 3.79 FIP
    2021 rating: 84.5

    19. Charlie Morton, RHP, Atlanta Braves

    Rating: 76
    Ace votes: 3
    Age: 38
    2021 stats: 14-6, 3.34 ERA, 185.2 IP, 10.5 K/9, 3.18 FIP
    2021 rating: 60

    20. Yu Darvish, RHP, San Diego Padres

    Rating: 74.5
    Ace votes: 2
    Applicant votes: 1
    Age: 35
    2021 stats: 8-11, 4.22 ERA, 166.1 IP, 10.8 K/9, 3.90 FIP
    2021 rating: 86

    21. Trevor Rogers, LHP, Miami Marlins

    Rating: 74.5
    Ace votes: 1
    Applicant votes: 7
    Age: 24
    2021 stats: 7-8, 2.64 ERA, 133 IP, 10.6 K/9, 2.55 FIP
    2021 rating: Not ranked

    22. Luis Castillo, RHP, Cincinnati Reds

    Rating: 74
    Applicant votes: 3
    Age: 29
    2021 stats: 8-16, 3.98 ERA, 187.2 IP, 9.2 K/9, 3.75 FIP
    2021 rating: 83

    23. José Berríos, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays

    Rating: 73.5
    Applicant votes: 5
    Age: 27
    2021 stats: 12-9, 3.52 ERA, 192 IP, 10.0 K/9, 3.28 FIP
    2021 rating: 72

    24. Kevin Gausman, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays

    Rating: 72
    Ace votes: 1
    Age: 31
    2021 stats: 14-6, 2.81 ERA, 192 IP, 10.6 K/9, 3.00 FIP
    2021 rating: 49

    25. Lance Lynn, RHP, Chicago White Sox

    Rating: 72
    Ace votes: 1
    Age: 34
    2021 stats: 11-6, 2.69 ERA, 157 IP, 10.1 K/9, 3.32 FIP
    2021 rating: 65
     
    Snake Diggit likes this.
  3. J.R.

    J.R. Contributing Member

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    26. Lance McCullers Jr., RHP, Houston Astros

    Rating: 71.5
    Ace votes: 1
    Applicant votes: 3
    Age: 28
    2021 stats: 13-5, 3.15 ERA, 162.1 IP, 10.3 K/9, 3.52 FIP
    2021 rating: 57

    “How many starts do you have to make to be a No. 1?” one scout asked. It is a relevant question for McCullers, who is quite good when he takes the mound, but too often sidetracked by health problems. A flexor injury knocked him out of the 2021 playoffs and will keep him from joining the Astros on Opening Day this week. It’s a shame, evaluators said, because McCullers has plenty of weapons and moxie. “No. 1 production,” one scout said, “but maybe not No. 1 innings?”

    27. Carlos Rodón, LHP, San Francisco Giants

    Rating: 70.5
    Applicant votes: 5
    Age: 29
    2021 stats: 13-5, 2.37 ERA, 132.2 IP, 12.6 K/9, 2.65 FIP
    2021 rating: Not ranked

    28. Logan Webb, RHP, San Francisco Giants

    Rating: 70.5
    Applicant votes: 7
    Age: 25
    2021 stats: 11-3, 3.03 ERA, 148.1 IP, 9.6 K/9, 2.72 FIP
    2021 rating: Not ranked

    29. Chris Sale, LHP, Boston Red Sox

    Rating: 69.5
    Ace votes: 2
    Applicant votes: 1
    Age: 33
    2021 stats: 5-1, 3.16 ERA, 42.2 IP, 11.0 K/9, 3.69 FIP
    2021 rating: Not ranked

    30. Shane Baz, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays

    Rating: 68
    Applicant votes: 11
    Age: 22
    2021 stats: 2-0, 2.03 ERA, 13.1 IP, 12.2 K/9, 4.07 FIP
    2021 rating: Not ranked

    31. Shane McClanahan, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays

    Rating: 65.5
    Applicant votes: 7
    Age: 24
    2021 stats: 10-6, 3.43 ERA, 123.1 IP, 10.3 K/9, 3.31 FIP
    2021 rating: Not ranked

    32. Frankie Montas, RHP, Oakland Athletics

    Rating: 65
    Applicant votes: 2
    Age: 29
    2021 stats: 13-9, 3.37 ERA, 187 IP, 10.0 K/9, 3.37 FIP
    2021 rating: Not ranked

    33. Dylan Cease, RHP, Chicago White Sox

    Rating: 64
    Applicant votes: 5
    Age: 26
    2021 stats: 13-7, 3.91 ERA, 165.2 IP, 12.3 K/9, 3.41 FIP
    2021 rating: Not ranked

    34. Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers

    Rating: 63.5
    Applicant votes: 1
    Age: 34
    2021 stats: 10-8, 3.55 ERA, 121.2 IP, 10.7 K/9, 3.00 FIP
    2021 rating: 72.5

    35. Zac Gallen, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks

    Rating: 63
    Applicant votes: 4
    Age: 26
    2021 stats: 4-10, 4.30 ERA, 121.1 IP, 10.3 K/9, 4.25 FIP
    2021 rating: 73

    36. Pablo López, RHP, Miami Marlins

    Rating: 63
    Applicant votes: 2
    Age: 26
    2021 stats: 5-5, 3.07 ERA, 102.2 IP, 10.1 K/9, 3.29 FIP
    2021 rating: 46.5

    37. Freddy Peralta, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers

    Rating: 63
    Applicant votes: 2
    Age: 25
    2021 stats: 10-5, 2.81 ERA, 144.1 IP, 12.2 K/9, 3.12 FIP
    2021 rating: Not ranked

    38. Joe Musgrove, RHP, San Diego Padres

    Rating: 62
    Age: 29
    2021 stats: 11-9, 3.18 ERA, 181.1 IP, 10.1 K/9, 3.70 FIP
    2021 rating: Not ranked

    39. Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Detroit Tigers

    Rating: 62
    Age: 28
    2021 stats: 13-8, 4.74 ERA, 157.2 IP, 10.6 K/9, 3.32 FIP
    2021 rating: Not ranked

    40. Blake Snell, LHP, San Diego Padres

    Rating: 61
    Applicant votes: 2
    Age: 29
    2021 stats: 7-6, 4.20 ERA, 128.2 IP, 11.9 K/9, 3.82 FIP
    2021 rating: 87

    41. Germán Márquez, RHP, Colorado Rockies

    Rating: 60
    Age: 27
    2021 stats: 12-11, 4.40 ERA, 180 IP, 8.8 K/9, 3.86 FIP
    2021 rating: 67

    Tier 5 (59.5 and below) — Guys

    42. Luis Garcia, RHP, Houston Astros

    Rating: 59.5
    Applicant votes: 1
    Age: 25
    2021 stats: 11-8, 3.48 ERA, 155.1 IP, 9.7 K/9, 3.63 FIP
    2021 rating: Not ranked

    Garcia wields an intricate, rhythmic delivery, which can be mesmerizing. As one scout put it, “He comes to the mound, and you’re like ‘This guy’s a reliever. This guy’s not even a starter. The delivery . . .’” The results, at least so far, suggest otherwise.

    43. John Means, LHP, Baltimore Orioles

    Rating: 59
    Ace votes: 1
    Age: 28
    2021 stats: 6-9, 3.62 ERA, 146.2 IP, 8.2 K/9, 4.62 FIP
    2021 rating: Not ranked

    44. Hyun Jin Ryu, LHP, Toronto Blue Jays

    Rating: 59
    Age: 34
    2021 stats: 14-10, 4.37 ERA, 169 IP, 7.6 K/9, 4.02 FIP
    2021 rating: 69

    45. Alek Manoah, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays

    Rating: 58.5
    Applicant votes: 3
    Age: 24
    2021 stats: 9-2, 3.22 ERA, 111.2 IP, 10.2 K/9, 3.80 FIP
    2021 rating: Not ranked

    46. Marcus Stroman, RHP, Chicago Cubs

    Rating: 58.5
    Applicant votes: 1
    Age: 30
    2021 stats: 10-13, 3.02 ERA, 179 IP, 7.9 K/9, 3.49 FIP
    2021 rating: 51

    47. Chris Bassitt, RHP, New York Mets

    Rating: 57
    Age: 33
    2021 stats: 12-4, 3.15 ERA, 157.1 IP, 9.1 K/9, 3.34 FIP
    2021 rating: Not ranked

    48. Tyler Mahle, RHP, Cincinnati Reds

    Rating: 57
    Age: 27
    2021 stats: 13-6, 3.75 ERA, 180 IP, 10.5 K/9, 3.80 FIP
    2021 rating: Not ranked

    49. Framber Valdez, LHP, Houston Astros

    Rating: 57
    Age: 28
    2021 stats: 11-6, 3.14 ERA, 134.2 IP, 8.4 K/9, 4.01 FIP
    2021 rating: 56.5

    Valdez had excellent numbers for the Astros last season, but got rocked a few times in October.

    50. Ian Anderson, RHP, Atlanta Braves

    Rating: 55.5
    Applicant votes: 1
    Age: 23
    2021 stats: 9-5, 3.58 ERA, 128.1 IP, 8.7 K/9, 4.12 FIP
    2021 rating: 61.5

    Honorable Mention (The Kyle Hendricks Award For Outstanding Performance In Upsetting The Commenters)

    Adam Wainwright, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals

    Rating: 52
    Ace votes: 1
    Age: 40
    2021 stats: 17-7, 3.05 ERA, 206.1 IP, 7.6 K/9, 3.66 FIP
    2021 rating: Not ranked
     
  4. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    Framber still underrated. He can very much be the 2020 version, beginning of 2021 version, and game 5 ALCS version more often than not.
     
    desihooper likes this.
  5. Mr.Pringles

    Mr.Pringles Member

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    Finding a top 5 closer for cheap. Good luck
     
  6. Mr.Pringles

    Mr.Pringles Member

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    Pressly would easily get $14/mil a year on the open market
     
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  7. SuraGotMadHops

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    I remember how frustrated people were when Click didn't sign a closer before the 2021 season and thought it was risky and dumb to roll with Pressly as the full time closer. Now look.
     
  8. Redfish81

    Redfish81 Member

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    Depends how he does this season....

    Injuries or bad peformance and you get crushed in free agency. That's why I'm a little surprised the Astros got very little or no discount for taking away his injury risk this season.
     
  9. RunninRaven

    RunninRaven Contributing Member
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    I don't understand this comment. What about Luis' windup/delivery makes one think he is a reliever instead of a starter?
     
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  10. Mr.Pringles

    Mr.Pringles Member

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    Not so sure $14 mil a year isn’t a discount in today’s baseball. Hader, Hendricks might make $20/a year
     
  11. Redfish81

    Redfish81 Member

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    Hendricks was the best reliever in baseball when he signed his deal. Raisel Iglesias is a year younger than Pressly and got 14.5 million a year. It seems very close to market value and Pressly has earned it. Like Snake said.. not much upside value which is something the Astros used to be pretty good at getting. Also, it guarantees him 15 million a year if they don't pick up the option. The little value is it only being a 2 year deal.
     
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  12. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

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    It's nearly impossible to get "upside value" for a veteran all star level player.

    That player will command a higher AAV and be less willing to settle or give home town discount due to limited years remaining in career to get paid.

    Upside value is for players signed to extensions before free agency and/or breakout candidates.

    Those contracts allow a team to sign these deals.

    Ex: Bregman signed 5yrs $100 mil contract that started his age 26 season after back to back seasons in top 5 MVP voting.

    What would 5yrs cost if he had been on the open market?

    How much value will he produce during the 5 years? ( granted a slow first 2 years )
     
  13. Redfish81

    Redfish81 Member

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    Pressly was a season away from free agency...

    Can't compare it to Bregman who had 4 years of team control at the time he signed his contract.

    The other question I have is the structure of the deal. Why not wipe out his 10 million dollar deal this season and make it a 3 year 38 million dollar deal with the 2 million dollar buyout on the 14 million dollar option for 2025? That is the same money but lowers the AAV for 2023 and 2024. The Astros are 12 million under last year's payroll and 34 million under the luxury tax. Makes sense to me to pay him a little more this season....
     
  14. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

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    I understand

    But my point is that the Bregmans of the baseball world allow a team to sign the Pressly's without becoming payroll bloated.
     
  15. Redfish81

    Redfish81 Member

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    Yea I understand your point. This isn't a horrible deal by any stretch. It's pretty much market value except for not having to guarantee a 3rd year.
     
  16. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

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    Furthermore.

    What are the odds of this happening in Correa was still an Astro at 10 yrs and $350 million?
     
  17. J.R.

    J.R. Contributing Member

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  18. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    What time is the pre-game show? 9am?

    Jeez... there are English premier league games that start later than this.
     
  19. Buck Turgidson

    Buck Turgidson Mineshaft Enthusiast

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    I think we can deal with 1 Sunday game at 11.

    For whatever reason, a lot of Eastern TZ Sunday games start around 11:30 local time...too bad for you, church crowd.
     
  20. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

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    That's 10:30 for me
     

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