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[Official] Astros Off Season Thread

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Castor27, Oct 2, 2024.

  1. raining threes

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    Then trade Framber if you need to clear up money, because even with Framber you aren't winning crap with this lineup. They need to add 2 or really 3 bats if they want to be true contenders for another championship. I've been saying this since the all star break and what would come to fruition when Dana decided not to add even one bat at the deadline.

    Gotta move on from McCormick and Meyers as well as continue the yearly hunt for a competent first baseman.

    I'm not worried about Hader. He got beat on a pitch. I'm more worried about Pressly as an 8th inning guy.
     
    #41 raining threes, Oct 3, 2024
    Last edited: Oct 3, 2024
  2. Landry's Tooth

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    I ran the numbers off spotrac...

    They are basically around 175 million after arbitration estimates including Jose Abreu's last year.

    Figure they trim payroll... they were at 255 this year all in.... assume 240...

    So they have roughly 65 million in free agency budget...

    I think that's good enough to bring back Bregman, Kikuchi, and Verlander...

    I would still flip Valdez for a young CF and or 1B that's under control and save that salary....

    I mentioned before Braves have need for pitching... they have a couple older guys and guys coming off injuries... Michael Harris could be a good get if they can...
     
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  3. Landry's Tooth

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    Framber should get you a quality young CF and 1B. Save money and fill 2 holes from a position of strength.

    Brown
    Kikuchi
    Blanco
    Verlander
    Arrighetti
    Garcia / McCullers

    That's good enough.... especially if Pena is the worst hitter in the lineup....
     
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  4. Kemahkeith

    Kemahkeith Member
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    I have been advocating for this since the beginning of the season.

    If ya aint gonna pay him, get something in return.
     
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  5. Kemahkeith

    Kemahkeith Member
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    I thought he would be nails THIS year
     
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  6. Kemahkeith

    Kemahkeith Member
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    Settle down Horshack
     
  7. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

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    When I looked over this a couple of weeks ago, they were over $200. I didn't look at arbitration estimates, just did my own. I did try to error on the high side to be sure I wasn't lower than it ends up.

    Now that there are actual estimates out I will look again.
     
  8. Stephen66

    Stephen66 Member
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    His eyes sure are close together
     
  9. Landry's Tooth

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    I did my own and rounded up. Spotrac will post some but it should be no higher... just using rough numbers for now...

    From my math with Tucker at 20, Valdez at 16, and Pena at 2.5 for 1st year arb...

    Including Jose Abreu and no one off the main roster (rest of 40 man) should run about 185... so I may be off about 10-15... probably was thinking from what they spent this year (255).
     
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  10. Landry's Tooth

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    Verlander for 14
    Bregman for 26
    Kikuchi for 18

    That gets them about 240.

    If they can unload Framber for someone like Michael Harris or Colton Cowser it could save money... a deal like that may be dependent on Framber getting extended like the Braves did with Olson...
     
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  11. STR8Thugg

    STR8Thugg STR8Thugg Member

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    Not necessarily. Also depends on what else is done this offseason, but it's not necessarily the worst idea to just ride it out for another year and see if we can make a run at it. Better chance to win with Tucker than without him.

    Trading him is a fair enough idea too, but really is going to depend on other moves that are made.

    I'll say this though, outside of 2021 and one WS game that we lost, he's been a snore fest in the playoffs, and that's been really disappointing. He was as much to blame as anyone for that loss yesterday, with his GBDP bullshit when we had a chance to open it up on them. That was such a killer.
     
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  12. SuraGotMadHops

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    I want to address coaching as well, I feel like for years the quality of our pitching coaching is way ahead of the quality of our hitting coaching. I feel like offensively our approach or game plan was rarely effective, and a lot of our guys were undisciplined at the plate.

    I never cared for Cintron and I would welcome a change there.
     
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  13. STR8Thugg

    STR8Thugg STR8Thugg Member

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    Defensively, he's a liability. Offensively, I mean he should still be pretty damn good, well above average for a second baseman.
     
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  14. Wulaw Horn

    Wulaw Horn Member

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    think the offseason (at least the start of it) is a good time to talk about the context with which this organization is operating and compare it to where we entered the season. Many times the season is instructive in forming opinions for what the future of the organization holds, but sometimes we can miss the forest for the trees or be unduly influenced by the results of the season. Was the 2024 Astros season great? No. Was it fun to watch? Absolutely not. Did we like the outcome in the playoffs? Of course not. But, I think that big ball of suck hides something pretty important to note, and that is this: What happened in the 2024 season probably makes the Astros an organization better prepared to capitalize on the next 5 years than we previously were heading into the season.

    Salaries and FA walk years (the year I use will be the last year with the Astros team- so Tucker will be '25 as that's his last year we can guarantee he's playing for us. I'm going to talk luxury tax dollars not actual dollars- b/c we have to make some sort of decision on what we talk about and that makes the most sense to me. For guys with arbitration I'm projecting what I think the number will be. I'm only talking about guys I think matter and will be the core of Astros teams going forward.

    Player Contract Status FA Walk year (age at walk year)

    Altuve 5 years/ 125M 2029 (39 YO)

    Alvarez 4 years/ 77M 2028 (31)

    Yainer Diaz 4 years $30M 2028 (29)

    Pena- 3 years- 30M 2027 (29)

    Meyers- 3 years- 15M 2027 (31) - I'm not sure Jake is an Astro all that time- I'm guessing he gets like 3M in arb 1 and they bring him back- candidate to dfa if no breakthrough after 25

    McCormick 2 years- 13M 2026 (31)- Chas has been good most of his career. He was terrible last year. I think they offer him something like $4M and bring him back. he made 2.8 never goes down- even after a bad year- candidate to dfa if bad again

    Caratini- 1 year - 6M 2025 (31)

    Tucker- 1 year- 18M 2025 (28)- he made 12M this last year- 18M would be a normal type ARB raise for someone of his caliber.

    Dubon- 2 years- 12M 2026 (31)- He made 3.5M this year in arb 2- I'm guessing 5M in arb 3 and 7M in arb 4- he's a super 2 guy. Candidate to dfa after 25

    Singleton- 4 years of club control 2028 (36)- I would think they bring him back as a minimum wage guy you can do worse than him on the bench. Upside of productive guy in platoon situation- I suspect the plan is to upgrade as everyday 1B

    Lost from this years team: Bregman, Heyward, Gamel,

    Waiting in the wings- roster fodder (25 edition): Whitcomb, Dezenzo, Melton, Mathews, Kessinger, Leon, Corona, Barber -

    Keep an eye on- long term guys: Ochoa, Janek, Baez (one of these guys needs to hit in a big way- or Matthews be a star)

    Prognosis: That's 10 of your 13 guys (likely) coming back. you get 3 more guys on your roster. You are set in stone at C, 2b, SS, RF, DH(LF). You have a really nice utility player in Dubon. You have a great defensive CF in Meyers. You have a candidate to really bounce back and be a good player in Chas (though that's not a certainty). Order of necessity to fill a position/improve- 1B, 3B, LF, CF.

    What I'd do- reasonable edition: Sign Christian Walker- 3 years- 60M (ESPN predicted 40-80M) (astros have been interested in him at deadline for years allegedly). 120 OPS plus guy last year and more or less for his career. Good defense. No signs of slowing down- but at 33 figure 3/60 is maximum that makes sense.

    sign Michael Conforto to play LF and platoon with Chas- he's a lifetime 838 ops guys against RHP and Chas is a lifetime 866 OPS guys against (LHP- and yes- I know Chas was bad last year- small sample blah blah blah). 1 year- 10M or something like that. I'd go up to 2/24 or 2/30 as an absolute max- if he won't take that then another LHH LF that's good against RHP.

    I'd turn 3b over to Dezenzo (I think he might actually be good). I'd tell Whitcomb he's a LF or a 1B now in case chas sucks or someone gets injured. I'd trot Jake out there in CF every day until Melton or Corona or Barber or someone like that supplanted him b/c again- Jake was worth 1.5 or 2.0 war depending upon who you believe as between BR and Fangraphs so him playing CF and hitting 9th is a good thing- not a bad thing- if the rest of the lineup is solid. And- he's a cheap placeholder until someone from the minors can beat him out. Lets hope Melton is better than I think he is.

    Proposed lineup:

    Altuve (25)

    Yordan (20)
    Diaz (1)

    Tucker (18)

    Walker (20)

    Chas/Conforto (20)

    Dezenzo (1)

    Pena (5)

    Meyers (3)

    Bench- Caratini, Singleton, Dubon, Chas/Confoto. (12M)

    That's a really solid squad. That would cost you something like 125M for the position player segment not bad.

    And yes- I know there is some dead money- will talk about that in installment 3
     
  15. raining threes

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    Attach prospects if you have too, to dump Montero, Pressly, LMJ. Free up money and buy a could of bats like Walker and Conforto.

    BTW, I've heard the Cards are going to have a fire sale. That's another place I would look for trades
     
  16. Htown Stros

    Htown Stros Member

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    I think there is a 4th option similar to what the Padres did when they traded Soto this past off-season. Trade Tucker and/or Framber then make other deals/moves to keep this team competitive. If you sign Kikuchi and another SP flyer, you trade Framber for prospects or a MLB ready bat. Dump Pressly even if you have to pay part of his salary. Trade for Willson Contreras. If the Dbacks really sign Bregman, trade/sign Eugenio Suarez. At the deadline, add an elite RP like the Padres did with Scott and Adam.

    I can promise you this team isn't doing your option 2 though.
     
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  17. Radricky

    Radricky Member

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  18. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    They either need to spend more than they ever have to fill holes at 1B, 3B, and SP, or trade Framber and Tucker.
     
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  19. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    The Padres seemed to have really threaded a needle there. I wouldn’t want to bank on replicating that. But they did show it is possible.
     
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  20. raining threes

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    I never want to see Meyers get regular time in CF as an Astro. I would let him walk and trade for Robert

    I probably would let Chas walk too and go with a Comforto type guy and one of Baez, Melton, Cole etc..as the 4th OF.
     
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