I'd stick with your current job. You're already comfortable there with your duties and the people you work with, plus there is more stability which is important since you have a family. And you just got a nice fat raise out of it.
Well it definitely sounds like a no-brainer - staying with people you know at a more established firm for a better package than what you were on. But the way you spoke about it perhaps you have to wonder.... could this be the "tipping point" (I know I'm mis-using this Gladwellian ) in your career as a trader by outperforming at a place where you're essentially (a) more visible to other funds/desks as opposed to a part of a trading desk at a bigger house (b) your comp is essentially unlimited if you can perform. One cynical thought - not that this should ever be a deciding factor - is that when markets turn, most banks do let go of staff indiscriminately (even if they are well regarded among their peers) e.g. post dot-com years Stability is not really a redeeming feature of a bank - but I can see where you're coming from comparing a bank to a hedge fund (I'm guessing you mean a boutique rather than the larger, more established hedge funds) Nevertheless - to save yourself the pain of a new job and a new baby - stick to your old place. Maybe another hedge fund will come along and offer you a better package than your new super-sized package!
Mateo, If you need some more professional advice in your considerations, feel free to email me over the weekend, and I would glady try and give you some insight. Getting a counter-counteroffer, could start a bidding war, which in turn could be good, because if your company now believes you to be a keeper, they will match. Honestly, money is not an issue to a company, if you believe yourself to be worth the money, then they will give it to you. The biggest issue to them is losing incredibly productive personell, which in turn it sounds like you might be an valuable asset to them. But, weight the options I said earlier, and of course your family is a HUGGGGE factor in choosing jobs, transition is not comfortable at all, but some transitions and risks can be the best and worst thing that ever happened to you, nothing in between!
I don't know what it's like in your line of work, but one thing I've always been told in my industry (IT/software) is that once you make it known you want to leave, don't turn back for any counteroffer even if it's greater. Why? Because the moment you tell them you want to leave they know you aren't "loyal" and will already put the gears in motion to have you replaced. In the meantime they'll give you a bit more salary while they look for your replacement...
My wife and I hemmed and hawwed over this for a while and I decided to stick with stability. Mostly because my wife was really sketchy about the new place and new boss, and when you have a two week old baby, you may not want to rock the boat. Plus I am a freaking basketcase from lack of sleep and I needed to hit the ground running at the new place. No regrets, the firm I work for is great...and there will be other opportunities if I ever choose to seek them out. It was a nice learning experience.
Thats probably for the best, being that the other offer was a hedge fund. With changing regulations over the next few years, it will start to limit the flexibility and regulations regarding these funds, which could hurt newer employees profitibility. I would stick with the I-Bank till I see some direction on where hedge funds are going.
