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Objectively Speaking...

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Zboy, Sep 1, 2020.

  1. Zboy

    Zboy Contributing Member

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    Things have panned out as we would expect given what we have watched from both teams throughout the season and given what we knew going into the series.

    In last couple days I have seen several folks here saying things such as, "We should be beating this OKC team", or "If OKC wins this then Rockets dont deserve to be in Game 7."

    Seriously?

    Let's take the homer glasses off for a second.

    Where is this arrogance and self-entitlement coming from exactly? Last I checked both these teams ended with a similar regular season record, 44-28. They also have a lineup that does very well against the league. Not a fluke over a handful of games. That's over an entire season. The record comparison is with Westbrook making major contributions during the season. A hobbled Westbrook has played only 2 games this entire series and the Rockets fans were expecting a walk in the park to the second round? That's some Lakers fan level self-entitlement.

    OKC is the best finishing team in the league. When the game is close in the final minutes, they have a good chance of pulling out a win? Why? Because they have CP3 who 1) takes care of the ball 2) and makes good decision with it during that span. Conversely, during those situations we have a tendency to make dumb plays and turn it over. The disparity in Ball IQ becomes even more glaring during crunch time. Again, no surprise there. OKC has won three close games.

    This one should come as a no surprise to anyone: We are not a great 3 point shooting team. We take a lot of 3s, sure, but we dont make most of them. We knew one of our best 3 point shooters and spacers, Eric Gordon, was struggling going into the series from long range. And that hasnt changed. Our other best 3 point shooter, Ben, is not even in some of the games. We dont have great 3 point shooting and yet we have taken 42% more 3 point shots than the OKC team. And I would wager, our 3 point shooting sucks even more in big game situations. Honestly other than a James 3, I am not very confident without anyone on the team shooting a 3 with things on the line. Our unreliable 3 point shooting can win us some games but it can also shoot us out of it. Rockets love to gamble.

    Lastly, the Rockets had HCA which would have given them a edge,, but even that is meaningless with no crowd impact.

    With a healthy RW and one that was firing on all cylinders before the league shutdown, you could have had a case that Rockets should beat the Thunder.

    Having watched a limited RW in last two games ( with his timing, explosiveness, rhythm, everything all off), realistically, even if the Rockets win past the Thunder, it will take a miracle for them to beat the Lakers.

    There just isnt time for RW to get back to his pre-pandemic form and given how limited this team is after JH + RW, you should not really expect much.

    And even if RW was 100% and Rockets played and lost to the Lakers, who are the #1 seed, again, no surprise. Objectively speaking #1 seed should win against a #4 seed.

    With a hobbled RW, you are asking for a miracle.

    Just enjoy the rest of the ride.
     
    #1 Zboy, Sep 1, 2020
    Last edited: Sep 1, 2020
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  2. Giant9erRocket

    Giant9erRocket Hakeem Olajuwon Status
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    Objectively speaking, if we lose game 7 can we just blame Danuel House for bricking that 1 FT at the end of game 3? This changed the entire series had we been up 3-0 we close this out in 5 games instead of fighting for our lives in 7.
     
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  3. apollo33

    apollo33 Member
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    a good team should not worry about 1 free throw. This series has been awfully close despite us being up 2-0 at one point.

    Every game we won, we made some kind of run in like a 3 minute stretch, the rest of the series is more or less even with OKC out performing us in the clutch every game we lost.

    If we can't stretch a lead in game 7, it might as well be game over before going into the 4th quarter.
     
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  4. Giant9erRocket

    Giant9erRocket Hakeem Olajuwon Status
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    How the hell has these games been awfully close? What games have you been watching?

    Game 1: 15 point beatdown
    Game 2: 13 point beatdown
    Game 3: OT win by Thunder / Harden fouled out
    Game 4: 3 point win by Thunder
    Game 5: 34 point thrashing
    Game 6: 4 point win by Thunder

    Houston had 62 additional points in 3 of their wins compared to 7 for the Thunder (not counting their OT 1 FT missed win) is a HUGE disparity. Not to mention Westbrook who was injured for the first 4 games but wait good teams shouldn't have injured players right?
     
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  5. Zboy

    Zboy Contributing Member

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    Again, this further proves that OKC is the better closing team.

    The Rockets need to build a nice cushion to beat the Thunder.

    Their 3s have to be falling to build that cushion.

    Unfortunately 3 point shooters tend to struggle even more in game 7s.

    So objectively speaking, with no true HCA, and with a good possibility that we will be clanking the 3s as a team, it stays close, and OKC squeezes out another close win.
     
  6. Chamillionaire

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    Good point.
    I predicted us in 7.
    So, I'm not really that surprised.
    We still could have swept them.
    That is what frustrates me about this team.
     
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  7. apollo33

    apollo33 Member
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    I watch games, I don't watch box scores. The only game where we had a consistent lead was game 1.

    Game 2 we were tied 80-80 going into the 4th and our bench made some miracle run that blew the game open. We were up by 3 in game 5 at the half and went on a crazy 3 minute run that blew the game open.

    We lost every other game that we we were close. We simply cannot win against this team in a close contest, we need a crazy run that pushes the lead to at least 15-17. Hell we had a 15 point lead in game 4 and we still blew it.
     
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  8. Giant9erRocket

    Giant9erRocket Hakeem Olajuwon Status
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    This makes no sense.. So you rather have 35 year old CP3 instead of Harden in a closing situation? I would take Harden 10 out of 10 in those situations. Any real fan or expert would do the same. Also I take RoCo on CP3 all day vs Dort on Harden even though people are calling Dort the "Harden Stopper". RoCo did his job and you guys make like shooting over someone with a 7'2 wingspan is easy. Sometimes you just have to tip your hat and every dog has its day.

    The chances of CP3 repeating this bullshit again in game 7 is extremely small which is why Vegas has the Rockets giving 5 points once again for game 7. I'll take this bet and make my money.
     
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  9. Giant9erRocket

    Giant9erRocket Hakeem Olajuwon Status
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    I watched the games and when Danuel House blew a simple FT I knew it changed the series forever especially when Mr. CLUTCH CP3 missed a gimme layup.

    Since then, you guys make like we are not a closing team since Danuel Hoise missed one FT. How dumb does this sound if we were up 3-0??? Makes no gd sense.
     
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  10. Zboy

    Zboy Contributing Member

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    Would I rather have 35 year old Chris Paul handling the ball in the closing minutes when he has shown all season he can still do it?

    Sure.

    Harden is the better scorer but there is no shame in admitting that in closing minutes of the game, Chris Paul is a better manager of the game and is better at taking care of the ball.

    We are talking about an all time great here, not some chopped liver lol.

    I dont think it takes anything away from Harden.
     
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  11. Giant9erRocket

    Giant9erRocket Hakeem Olajuwon Status
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    I agree he does manage the crunch time better however him scoring is an entirely different ball game. If your goal is to score then you go with Harden. If your goal is to dribble/eat clock/flop when someone barely touches you/which gets to the line/throw up prayers and hope they go in then CP3 is your man. We've all seen him do this **** time and time again for us and the Clips. It's just this year and these playoffs against us hes been the luckiest dog **** ever which is astonishing for a 35 year old (should be washed up) player.
     
  12. Kim

    Kim Contributing Member

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    It is fair to say OKC has some members with better clutch IQ and execution than the Rockets. It is also fair to say you cannot expect and should not accept the game 3 meltdown as just "oh, that happens in basketball." Sadly, that epic meltdown has happened before (Knicks last year) where the collective brains of the players and coaching staff can't pull off a win that's already 95% there. Up 2, with the ball, less than 24 seconds left, pressured full-court, with 2 timeouts in the pocket, and no timeout called to advance the ball for better passing angles.

    There are some grains of truth in your argument though - the Rockets play dumb a lot. Zack Lowe said in his podcast today that from a scheme and talent standpoint, the Rockets "should" beat the Lakers if they play a series, but he cannot trust them to do that. It's just a nice way of saying the collective IQ of the Rockets (including coaching staff) is not great, or not consistently good enough.

    In regards to the Thunder though, the reason I argue that the Rockets should have won already is that even accepting the IQ disadvantage to a CP3 team and accepting the talent advantage in other areas, overall, the Rockets playing hard was enough to win most possessions vs the Thunder. When they played lazy (bad shots, lazy passes, no force), then they still could win, but would mostly lose. This is unrelated to whether they could hit the 3 well enough - unrelated in impact, but maybe related to psyche. Against the Lakers, they'd have to play hard and shoot well to win in my opinion.

    That stated, I'm scared as crap that OKC keeps it close and wins Wednesday if the Rockets play too dumb and lazy. For the love of basketball, please don't commit 10 unforced turnovers like this game 6. What the hell was that?
     
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  13. bilaal14

    bilaal14 Member

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    thanks for this, no really, thank you makes me feel much better.
     
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  14. mfastx

    mfastx Member

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    I can understand this view coming into the series (I originally picked Thunder in 7) but given the first two games and the finish to games 3 and 6, this series should be over already. The Rockets just completely unraveled at the end of those two games inexplicably, fans have a right to be mad.
     
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  15. jcmoon

    jcmoon Contributing Member

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    i never took the thunder for granted. they were the last team i wanted to face in the first round. i knew that their 3 guards and perimter defense was going to be a problem. i never expected to win the first two games without westbrook. With him injured and at 75 percent and recovering from coronavirus, i knew we had to outscore them.

    our switching defense is good but when you have 3 good guards who can drive like they can, they are a problem. Schroeder always scared me and he has played like an all star at times. its hard to guard all three of those guards. if they hit their 3s they are a big problem. you can't guard the drive and their shot well.

    we had our chance to take them out, but what do you expect? house has played good enough but made rookie mistakes...what do you expect from 3 million a year.

    The rockets always get fouled and no call. tired of this ****. NBA is rigged. The bookies and TV stations control the refs with their money.
     
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  16. napalm06

    napalm06 John Lucas University™
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    Wonderful. Westbrook has a built in excuse now, in spite of his career as a non shooting turnover frenzy. His quad made him throw 7 passes 5 feet away from defenders. Objectively speaking.
     
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  17. Zboy

    Zboy Contributing Member

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    Eh... a healthy RW for the entire series with his relentless drives to the basket, putting a lot of pressure on the defense, and helping Harden with scoring easily outweigh his turnovers and gets us at least 1 extra win in the series.

    Not far fetch to say that if he was not injured he would have played all the games, would have been better when he played, and would have helped the team lol.
     
  18. Nook

    Nook Member

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    Objectively speak this series should have been over a long time ago.

    The Rockets have the best player in the world..... the Rockets are outscoring the Thunder by 25 points per 100 possessions with Harden on the floor in this series.

    The Rockets have lost the free throw battle by -50 and still have outscored the Thunder by +44.

    The Rockets have done all that without their second best player in 4 of the games.

    The Rockets have blown leads late in 3 games in this series to make it 3-3.

    Realistically the Rockets should be 5-1 if not 6-0 in these 6 games.

    Statistically the odds of this series currently being 3-3 are very low, but here we are.

    So while this looked like a fairly even match up coming into the series, it really hasn't been.

    The only reason this series wasn't 4-0 or 4-1 is because of poor execution by the Rockets, inconsistent coaching/focus and the free throw difference.
     
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  19. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member
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    I was not overly optimistic about our chances heading into this series. I think on a poll posted here, I selected Thunder game 7 win. Not that I strongly felt the Rockets wouldn't win, but it was a toss up and the teams seemed pretty evenly matched to me.

    I'd probably lean towards a Rockets win tomorrow, actually, but neither result would surprise me. These playoffs are weird, and I'm honestly not stressing about the outcome.
     
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  20. MorningZippo

    MorningZippo Member

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    You should watch the box score AND the game, since apparently you can’t count high enough to know what a big or small lead is.
     

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