Two things about this rumor: 1. It seems way, way out there to be basing it on domain name data. I imagine most of these would have been registered by the campaign long ago anyway. You wouldn't wait until this week when you know your pick to register it. 2. If the Obama campaign were to accidentally leak their pick, this is probably the type of mistake that would cause it. Something totally outside of and out of the control of the main campaign players (I can't imagine David Axelrod is doing the domain name registering).
I agree with Major. I don't put any stock in the domain name thing. And I think that the Obama campaign can wait to paint names on planes and such just one more day. They worked hard to keep this thing secret. I don't think it's gonna leak.
That's not how I feel -- you know me, and I'm firmly in Obama's corner, just like I always said I would be when Hillary was eliminated. With that said... I do have a lot of Clinton friends and contacts, and on this, the opinion is pretty universal. They're generally in Obama's camp -- not enthusiastic, but there -- with the only caveat that picking another woman would send them running to McCain. I wouldn't say this if this were a just a handful... but it's seriously almost everyone I know, which makes me think it might be a fair representation. Now, given a cooling off period, is it possible or even likely that they'd go back to Obama, just like after the emotions of the primary season? Sure. But it would definitely incite a lot of anger in the meantime, and given how surprisingly close the polls are at this point, I'd be surprised if Obama took that chance. (Again, please don't shoot the messenger -- I'm fine with Obama/Sebelius. Much prefer her to Bayh, when it comes to the apparent final four. But from my experience, this might really piss off a lot of folks.)
Yeah, it doesn't seem like this is legit either. If you go to the actual link, and read the comments... http://www.tribbleagency.com/?p=1747
Would it be that big of a deal if it was leaked one day early? I guess it is one more day the media can talk about something besides the daily "gotcha" or the latest McCain attack ad.
This is interesting - I think there are two camps here. There are the people that supported Hillary because she's Hillary. And there are the ones that supported Hillary because they really were excited by a woman. Apparently, the recent polls show one of Obama's weaknesses w/ the Dem party to be middle-aged, white women - I assumed that was the Hillary group that Sebelius would help win over. But you might have a point in that it might turn off other Hillary supporters who's support was more specific to her. On a separate note, one reason I'm a big supporter of Sebelius from an electoral perspective is that I think Obama has only a few ways to lose the election. One of the biggest is if he picks a guy and McCain swoops in and picks a woman. I don't think McCain is leaning that way and his choices of women seem to be narrowing (Palin has a scandal issue - she would have been the most likely). But this would be Obama's way to consolidate his strength with women and maybe even expand the gender gap with some GOP women that have always wanted to break that "glass ceiling".
The Cat, Okay, I won't shoot the messenger then. But can you please explain to me why the **** they would feel that way? I can completely understand if they'd be offended by ANYONE but Hillary, but any WOMAN but Hillary? That is the most pathetic, shallow, sexist thing I've ever heard. Sebelius wouldn't be picked because of her +/- as a woman; she'd be picked because he's very comfortable with her, she's a Washington outsider and a true "change" candidate and because she has a solid track record of appealing to red state voters with progressive values and positions. All qualities Hillary lacks. The only things they have in common is that they're D's and they're women. While Hillary was chipping that glass ceiling, did she (or her supporters) install a new one under her feet?
Yes, okay, okay, but then why are they okay with a man that isn't Hillary? I swear to god this argument just totally puts the lie to the idea that some of her supporters care about gender equality. It makes me want to vomit all over them.
So, IOW, they're a bunch of babies who only care about themselves as opposed to what is best for the country. Gotcha.
I think the idea would be that they would take it as Obama insulting Hillary (yet again, in their opinion) by taking what they see as a less-qualified woman to make Hillary even less relevant. I've seen the sentiment out there a bit in blog comments and the like. I think it's weird, but it does exist.
That's pretty much how I view it. I know some Democrats who were ardent Hillary supporters during the primaries and they told me that they would feel blatantly pandered to were Sebelius the pick. I've mentioned that before. Partly because of that, and partly because of her lack (unless I missed something) of foreign policy experience (which Clinton is seen as having by many, fair or not), that pick would surprise me. I'm hoping for Biden, although I'd prefer Gore as a surprise, or Warner, who would also be a surprise. Warner may not have that foreign policy experience either, but he would help tremendously in Virginia, IMO, and is a heck of a campaigner. I also don't think his selection would be as micro-analyzed as much as Sebelius. Who knows who he'll pick at this point? I just hope it isn't anyone boring, a non-entity, ala Dan Quayle. Impeach Bush/Cheney.
That's what The Cat, I think, and I were talking about. That feeling exists, based on my personal experience. Widespread? I can't answer that. Impeach Bush.
