http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/19/feb19.contests/index.html It looks like Obama has won and not only that has cut into Hillary's base. I'm still supporting Hillary but at this rate it looks like March 4th is her last stand.
I agree. She needs to win both TX/OH and by decent margins (at least 55/45) to even justify staying in the race beyond that at this point. That's certainly doable - I don't see her coming all the way back, but I think she can accomplish what she needs to to justify staying in through Pennsylvania, but it's definitely becoming an uphill climb. This was supposed to be her big test. Swing state, demographics that favored her, both campaigned heavily and she got blown out. I certainly didn't expect a 15+ point win, and though 10 (55-45) would have been pushing it.
Her negative attacks hurt her here. The contest where Hillary did best was her vulnerable tearing up before NH. That was what got the most results. If I was her I would go back to that tact, rather than the negativity which just hasn't been successful.
Totally agree - for whatever reason, she just hasn't been able to find a message that resonates with people so far. It might be worth trying simply focusing on herself and her message for the next two weeks - pretend Obama doesn't even exist and see what happens. She needs something radically different than what she's been doing.
Her message should be to appear human and compassionate. People know she's experienced. What people are afraid of is the lack of a soul or an intense personal passion that people can resonate with. She might've been better off looking a little vulnerable so males can rescue her and females can sympathize her plight. Her credentials are implied with her brand name recognition.
She got into some problems with that though appearing weak and playing too much with female stereotypes. The other problem with that is that only really works if you can do more intimate campaigning such as in NH and doesn't work so well heavily media driven campaigning.
Probably could have folded this thread into one of the many existing BHU threads. Didn't need to start a new topic for it
What people? Aside from her time in the Senate -- during which time she has sponsored/passed any significant bill -- what experience does she have? Her only administrative "experience" is looking over Bill's shoulder.
I don't think she has to actually tear up all the time as a strategy. But she could set up smaller townhall meetings, and just show her vulnerability, passion, desire to lead for the right reasons, and try to make it seem like she really cares about the country. She shouldn't rule out going negative, but wait until there's an opening before attacking. Trying to playoff some trumped up plagiarism charge, or pointing out that Obama is black, or used cocaine in the past, isn't going to sit well, and it isn't going to help her win. However if Obama really did have a major slip up then she could pounce having sat back and focused on herself for a while.
Did you folks see this? Downright embarrassing. Maybe a little preparation next time, Kirk? <object width="425" height="355"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/5d91jxghTnE&rel=1"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/5d91jxghTnE&rel=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="355"></embed></object>
Hillary Clinton co-sponsored the legislation to raise the minimum wage and also the last bill allowing for more federal funding for stem cell reseach. As the senator from NY during 9/11 she worked quite a bit on the legislation setting up the victims fund and the commission, she's also brought a lot of funding to upstate NY for ethanol and other business. While she's been taken to task in regard for her war vote two years ago she also brought up legislation to remove the Congressional authorization for Iraq.
Wisconsin voters are odd. http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#WIDEM Exit polls (page 4). Of the 17% of people who would be "extremely dissatisfied" if Hillary was the nominee, 5% voted for her anyway. Of the 8% that felt the same about Obama, 5% of those voted for him anyway.
It's certainly possible she gets 55% in TX and OH. But I don't think it's gonna happen. I think Obama is going to end up carrying Texas. I heard she needs more than 55% in those states though. That she needs closer to 65% in both to catch up. EDIT: http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/ Clinton needs to win 58% of all remaining pledged delegates simply to get the pledged delegate lead back. Forget 2025. And if you assume Obama wins Vermont, Wyoming, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota, then the magic percentage number in the states Clinton wins rises to 65% -- SIMPLY TO GET THE PLEDGED DELEGATE LEAD BACK...
From Electoral Vote .Com While it will take several days for the polls to reflect yesterday's results, the trading markets respond much faster. At www.intrade.com as of this morning stock in Obama was trading at $79 and stock in Clinton was trading at $19. This means you can buy 10 shares of Obama for $79. If he gets the nomination, you get $100. If he loses the nomination, you get zero. If you think Hillary Clinton is going to win the nomination, this is a good time to buy stock in her. For every $19 you invest, you get $100 if she is nominated. Here are the charts for the past 90 days. Clinton Obama In the general election market, 10 shares of Obama to win the Presidency cost $56, 10 shares of Clinton cost $12 and 10 shares of McCain cost $35. The political futures market thus thinks it likely that Barack Obama will not only win the Democratic nomination, but will also win the general election and gives Hillary Clinton hardly any chance to become President. McCain may think so, too, at least about the nomination part. In his speech yesterday, he began attacking Obama already. Nary a word about Clinton.
She does have a plan B: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0208/8583.html If this is true, she will have no political career even if she wins the nomination. Talk about disenfranchise. Would not be surprised if this is true. There's already that crap from Howard (?) Ickes about giving her the delegates from Michigan and Florida..
That's ridiculous. If she was always looking over Bill's shoulder his hobby wouldn't have gotten him in so much trouble. Clearly she was working when Bill was, eh, distracted. BTW I think Hillary is done as a Pres nominee, at least for this year (slight chance in 4 years if McCain somehow wins). But if she could keep from going super negative, I think it might be gracious and the correct move for Obama to offer up the VP spot. I understand her baggage on the ticket (potentially hurting the Indep draw), but the bottom line is both candidates agree on 95% of the same stuff and would generate so much support closing ranks (really futher improve the ticket's draw for women, Latinos, and those concerned about Obama's experience, particularly foreign). Either Clinton-Obama or Obama-Clinton (now more plausible) would probably be unstoppable. There are other benefits for Hillary as VP. One, the Republicans may waste a lot of attention on the Hillary side when voters really don't care that much about the VP, and two, a nice disincentive for some nut-job who has bad thoughts about Obama. So let's do it. Get the campaigns together to agree either way they will be the full ticket. Hillary can make her last stand at Ohio and Texas (without going too negative), if she loses either she stops spending and anything remotely negative while riding it out to the VP ticket. If she wins both, they ride out this thing for a delegate chase without either being negative or pursuing other's pledged delegates.
I don't want Hillary as VP....and i think Obama would want to distance himself from her, frankly. She doesn't poll well nationally at this point. He and Edwards both framed her as part of the establishment....he can't continue asserting that he's not part of the establishment if he invites her to the ticket.
If Hillary is on the ticket, I will return to the GOP. Granted, that's only one vote. But there are many, many others with the same reaction to Hillary.
