I like the approach Ryan Parker takes here to generating a list of top clutch players: http://offthedribble.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/12/22/how-do-you-determine-clutch/ Instead of just looking at FG% in clutch time, he first orders the players based on how involved they are offensively in clutch time. Then he take those top players, and orders them by an adjusted efficiency measure -- points produced per possessions used, adjusted for usage%. He finds the following players to be the top clutch performers: Code: [B]Player O-Rating[/B] LeBron James 151 Brandon Roy 145 Chris Paul 138 Kobe Bryant 135 Dwyane Wade 133 Joe Johnson 132 Nate Robinson 132 Paul Pierce 126 Dirk Nowitzki 123 Devin Harris 119 That's a pretty good list (though Nate Robinson is a surprise inclusion). LA fans may not like that Kobe isn't at the top, but as Parker observes the difference between Kobe's "clutch" rating and the top player on the list isn't statistically significant. In other words, its not totally improbable that Kobe is in fact the most effective clutch-time player but the data as of yet just doesn't bare that out. Still, he'd take LeBron. I don't blame him. I do know that, for me, there isn't a player I fear more down the stretch than Kobe Bryant.
I don't like the idea of determining how clutch a player is based on observation and reputation. That seems more flawed than a statistical approach because everyone always forgets the mistakes and remembers the game winners.
True. But we have all seen that commercial that states how many losing shots Jordan took. Was he not clutch? Game winners equates to clutch in my book.
I think the method is interesting, but that the definition of clutch is still problematic. He's not counting anything on the defensive side of the ball -- should defense have anything to do with how clutch a player is? What if Nate Robinson is a clutch finisher on offense, but is getting posterized by a big SG in the post on the other side?
Is there such a thing as "clutch" defense? That's an interesting concept. Haven't really thought about that. Ziggy, I think the stats can inform the debate on who's "clutch" and who isn't. Check out the response to that blog. One guy said that LeBron isn't clutch, and that's been proven in the playoffs. That's a classic example of how total ignorance of facts (i.e., "stats") is clouding a fan's judgment. That said, I do agree that there is no singly way to quantify "clutchness". There are too many aspects to it: - ability to get yourself (or teammates) good shots at the end of a game - cool under pressure -- do you hit open shots / free throws in pressure moments? - team success with you on the floor -- a player might be less efficient in the clutch because he's depended on the to create more offense. But what is his impact on the team in clutch situations? So there are a number of dimensions to look at, and I think the stats can play a big role in illuminating the discussion.
Game winners are clutch of course, but is the player really that clutch if his team was only in that position because he had missed multiple opportunities to put the game away earlier? A good recent example (discussed in another thread), is the game between the Lakers and Milwaukee. I agree that Kobe has been clutch throughout his career, but was he really clutch in that game? He hit the game winner in OT, but he missed his last three shots of regulation, including a potential game winner at the buzzer, and had a couple of turnovers down the stretch. I would say that was not a very clutch performance from him, but most people only remember that final shot in OT. Jordan may have missed a lot of game winners, but he made more than he missed and that was with the defense always focused on him. I bet if you look at it statistically, he would still come out on top (or really close).
How is Kobe not #1? The guy already has two buzzer beaters this season. Buzzer beaters should count for more 'clutch' points than a FG or free throws (LeBron) in the last minute of the 4th quarter.
<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/wfhhBN9L8Sg&hl=en_US&fs=1&"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/wfhhBN9L8Sg&hl=en_US&fs=1&" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object> <object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/oSPDDpyoIKo&hl=en_US&fs=1&"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/oSPDDpyoIKo&hl=en_US&fs=1&" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object> So many of those guys made incredible plays in the playoffs that helped make them two time champions.
Kobe's reputation for being a clutch player comes from his uncanny ability to nail contested jumpshots and finish games at the free throw line. He does the same thing throughout the rest of the game. That is why so many people would want to have him with the game on the line. In the event that there is no driving lane or good offensive option no one in the nba...ever...has shot contested jumpers as well as Kobe. Now, that doesn't mean he's the best player in clutch situations, he's just most likely to make a very low percentage shot.
Yeah, I think that's a very good way to put it. We want to give him extra credit as a clutch performer (perhaps justifiably) because he's so damn good at converting on the shots he takes. But a player like LeBron James, from sheer physical dominance and will-power, is able to manufacture better shots for himself (and his teammates) more consistently down the stretch of close games.
Its trying to find the best of the best, but clutchness isnt restricted to just a handful of players. Kobe doesnt have exclusive rights to take all the clutch in the league. Hundreds of games, hundreds of players. Nate Robinson's team isnt good enough to GET him in position to be clutch like the other guys. It shows once he's in position he does well in those situations. The top 5 is legit, and this is a solid list. Paul Pierce has always been known as ballsy down the stretch and the stats show it. Oddly Joe Johnson and Nowitzki have been considered chokers. But that could be part Lebron and Kobe lovers wanting to knock contenders off the pedestal. Dirk is the only non-guard/swingman on the list.
I can only describe clutch based on primary actions. Shaking his genitals at opposing teams, referees, and fans.
For all intents and purposes, he is #1. The author said that there is no statistically significant difference from Lebron James down through Dirk Nowitzki. That is, the top 9 guys are all #1, and his analysis isn't fine enough to make real decisions among those 9 guys. But, Lebron James is more clutch than Devin Harris.
As someone that follows the Hawks it's nice to see JJ get some props and recognition for how he literally carries that team in every way imaginable -- including his stellar play in crunch-time.
Having Nate Robinson on that list immediately invlidates it. The Knicks can't give him away for free and he's an expiring deal.
kind of new to clutchfans, already read but have only replied a couple of times. But if I remember correctly, didn't Lebron hit his first game winning shot at almost the end of this past regular season, how is that clutch?!?!?!?!? If I am wrong please let me know.
