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NYT: Disenchanted Bush Voters Consider Crossing Over

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by Batman Jones, Feb 22, 2004.

  1. Batman Jones

    Batman Jones Member

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    http://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/22/politics/campaign/22VOTE.html?hp

    Disenchanted Bush Voters Consider Crossing Over
    By ELISABETH ROSENTHAL

    Published: February 22, 2004

    EACHWOOD, Ohio — In the 2000 presidential election, Bill Flanagan a semiretired newspaper worker, happily voted for George W. Bush. But now, shaking his head, he vows, "Never again."

    "The combination of lies and boys coming home in body bags is just too awful," Mr. Flanagan said, drinking coffee and reading newspapers at the local mall. "I could vote for Kerry. I could vote for any Democrat unless he's a real dummy."

    Mr. Flanagan is hardly alone, even though polls show that the overwhelming majority of Republicans who supported Mr. Bush in 2000 will do so again in November. In dozens of random interviews around the country, independents and Republicans who said they voted for Mr. Bush in 2000 say they intend to vote for the Democratic presidential candidate this year. Some polls are beginning to bolster the idea of those kind of stirrings among Republicans and independents.

    That could change, of course, once the Bush campaign begins pumping millions of dollars into advertising and making the case for his re-election.

    But even as Democratic and Republican strategists and pollsters warned that a shift could be transitory, they also said it could prove to be extraordinarily consequential in a year when each side is focused on turning out its most loyal voters.

    "The strong Republicans are with him," a senior aide to Senator John Kerry said of Mr. Bush. "But there are independent-minded Republicans among whom he is having serious problems."

    "With the nation so polarized," he added, "the defections of a few can make a big difference."

    In the interviews, many of those potential "crossover" voters said they supported the invasion of Iraq but had come to see the continuing involvement there as too costly and without clear objectives.

    Many also said they believed that the Bush administration had not been honest about its reasons for invading Iraq and were concerned about the failure to find unconventional weapons. Some of these people described themselves as fiscal conservatives who were alarmed by deficit spending, combined with job losses at home. Many are shocked to find themselves switching sides.

    While sharing a sandwich at the stylish Beachwood Mall in this Cleveland suburb, one older couple — a judge and a teacher — reluctantly divulged their secret: though they are stalwarts in the local Republican Party, they are planning to vote Democratic this year.

    "I feel like a complete traitor, and if you'd asked me four months ago, the answer would have been different," said the judge, after assurances of anonymity. "But we are really disgusted. It's the lies, the war, the economy. We have very good friends who are staunch Republicans, who don't even want to hear the name George Bush anymore."

    In 2000, Mr. Bush won here in Ohio with 50 percent of the popular vote, as against 46.5 percent for Al Gore.

    George Meagher, a Republican who founded and now runs the American Military Museum in Charleston, S.C., said he threw his "heart and soul" into the Bush campaign four years ago. He organized veterans to attend campaign events, including the campaign's kickoff speech at the Citadel. He even has photographs of himself and his wife with Mr. Bush.

    "Given the outcome and how dissatisfied I am with the administration, it's hard to think about now," he said. "People like me, we're all choking a bit at not supporting the president. But when I think about 500 people killed and what we've done to Iraq. And what we've done to our country. I mean, we're already $2 trillion in debt again."

    A nationwide CBS News poll released Feb. 16 found that 11 percent of people who voted for Mr. Bush in 2000 now say they will vote for the Democratic candidate this fall. But there was some falloff among those who voted against him as well. Five percent of people who said they voted for Mr. Gore in 2000 say this time they will back Mr. Bush.

    On individual issues, the poll found some discontent among Republicans but substantial discontent among independents. For instance, on handling the nation's economy, 19 percent of Republicans and 56 percent of independents said they disapproved of the job Mr. Bush was doing.

    "As the president's job rating has fallen, his Democratic supporters have pulled away first, then the independents and now we're starting to see a bit of erosion among the Republicans, who used to support him pretty unanimously," said Evans Witt, the chief executive of Princeton Survey Research Associates. "If 10 to 15 percent of Republicans do not support him anymore, that is not trivial for Bush's re-election."

    But Matthew Dowd, the Bush campaign's chief strategist, suggested that no one in the White House was worried about Mr. Bush's losing much of his base. He said polls continued to show that the president was enjoying the support of 90 percent of Republicans.

    Many of those interviewed said that they had experienced a growing disenchantment with the conflict in Iraq over many months, but that only recently had they decided to change their votes.

    A number said they had been deeply disturbed by recent statements of David A. Kay, the former United Nations weapons inspector, who said he was skeptical about administration claims that Iraq possessed unconventional weapons.

    "The lack of evidence on Iraq has really hurt him, and the economy here is bad — there's a lot of unemployment in the mills," said Phyllis Pierce, who is in the steel business in Cleveland and recently decided not to vote for Mr. Bush again.

    John Scarnado, a sales manager from Austin, Tex., who voted for Mr. Bush in 2000, said he would vote for Mr. Kerry if the senator won the Democratic nomination.

    "I'm upset about Iraq and the vice president and his affiliation with Halliburton," said Mr. Scarnado, a registered Republican who said that he had not always voted along party lines. "I think the Bush administration is coming out to look like old boy politics, and I don't have a good feel about that."

    Many of those wavering in their loyalty to Mr. Bush were middle-class voters who said that his tax relief programs had disproportionately helped the wealthy.

    "I voted for him, but it seems like he's just taking care of his rich buddies now," said Mike Cross, a farmer from Londonderry, N.H., adding, "I'm not a great fan of John Kerry, but I've had enough of President Bush."
     
  2. Deckard

    Deckard Blade Runner
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    I keep meeting Republicans who will not vote for Bush this time. For some, it's the deficit spending, for others, it's a feeling that they were mislead about the war, others are frightened by the far right tilt exemplified by Ashcroft, and there are those who feel the Bush tax cuts were aimed at his wealthiest backers and not them. But most of the people I talk to feel a mixture of those things, and it not something as specific as one issue... it's just adding up to, "I'm voting for the Democrat this time, as long as he's not completely off the wall. I can't vote for Bush again."

    These quotes give a bit of the feel. What hits home, though, is when I talk to close relatives who have been loyal, conservative Republicans here in Texas for over 20 years, since Reagan, who tell me they will vote against Bush without me bringing it up. I can tell you, this has shocked the hell out of me.

    And it gives me hope.
     
  3. basso

    basso Member
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    how interesting to compare the above quote from mr. meagher, with one from the times two weeks earlier:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/03/p...tml?ex=1077512400&en=d1f41dbeaab18901&ei=5070

    so two weeks ago mr. meagher was an independent, but now he's a republican? and people wonder why the times has credibility issues.
     
  4. Major

    Major Member

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    so two weeks ago mr. meagher was an independent, but now he's a republican? and people wonder why the times has credibility issues.

    Or perhaps he was a Republican when he founded that center and voted for Bush, and now he calls himself an independent since he doesn't like the Bush admin. That said, it's a little weird they are quoting the same random person in two articles a few weeks apart. They need more sources.

    Beyond that, I have had the same experience as Deckard. I know Republicans that I would never have thought would vote for a Democrat who are considering it. This election is going to be very interesting.
     
  5. basso

    basso Member
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    the larger problem is it's basically the same quote, reworded to fit the slant of the current article. at best, it's sloppy journalism, at worst it's clear bias. the two stories are by the same reporter.
     
  6. bigtexxx

    bigtexxx Member

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    Major, it is quite possible that these Republicans who you and Deckard have talked to are just telling you what you want to hear. Seriously. I'm sure they've heard you and Deckard bemoaning our President extensively, so to avoid an in-depth argument with you, they simply say they're not sure about who they're voting for. Perhaps they simply don't want to ruffle the feathers in an inappropriate setting such as work or in mixed political company. But come election time, they will vote Republican. I discount your anecdotal evidence.
     
  7. Major

    Major Member

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    Major, it is quite possible that these Republicans who you and Deckard have talked to are just telling you what you want to hear.

    Since these are close friends of mine, and we disagree on politics all the time, that's not the case. Since we actually discuss the issues and why we dislike certain candidates, that's also not the case. And since they are getting into arguments with other Republicans as a result, and it would have been far easier to simply support Bush, that again messes up your theory.

    I'm sure they've heard you and Deckard bemoaning our President extensively, so to avoid an in-depth argument with you, they simply say they're not sure about who they're voting for.

    I'm glad you're so sure about conversations you know nothing about. It clarifies the credibility of your other opinions throughout this board.

    I discount your anecdotal evidence.

    oh well, no big loss.
     
  8. MacBeth

    MacBeth Member

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    This would be, IMO,the smartest thing I've ever seen you post ( as individual experience case studies are the lowest form of support for an argument beyond the individual in question) were it not hard on the heels of your latest example of drawing far reaching conclusions based on limited evidence; in this case your incorrectly based conclusion that my alhohol/mj behaviour was a confirmation of your opinion of Democrats in general...
     
  9. bigtexxx

    bigtexxx Member

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    1) I was not being serious in the thread in which you announced you were a philosophical pothead and drunk.

    2) Your intellectual arrogance sickens me and many others on this board. If you were half as smart as you think you are, you'd already have a few Nobel prizes to your credit.
     
  10. MacBeth

    MacBeth Member

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    1) I was being equally serious here...

    2) Ok then. Once again, where's the beef?
     
  11. Deckard

    Deckard Blade Runner
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    I mentioned that I was most surprised by close relatives, that I have known for decades, by the way, who said they couldn't vote for Bush... without my asking their opinion. Of course, you may spin things in whatever way that makes you feel better.

    I've also talked to long-time Republican Texas state executives who say the same thing, although they are careful where they say it and to who. The current political climate in state government here makes open dissent dangerous to one's job.
     
  12. MacBeth

    MacBeth Member

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    Home of the brave, land of the free...
     
  13. Deckard

    Deckard Blade Runner
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    I wish I had been exaggerating.
    There are state agencies and commissions, some which work for the Legislature, that have been labeled "liberal!" by influential supporters of the leadership. This despite having Republican directors and non-partisan policies. It is that non-partisanship which is seen as damning in some circles. Some people here in high positions find themselves walking very carefully indeed.
     
  14. thadeus

    thadeus Member

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    [​IMG]

    Hmm...I'm getting a name...someone crossing over to the other side..it starts with a b. No wait, it starts with a t. Tecks? Texx? Someone said it's a nickname. Big? Yes, that's right...yes...you are considering what?...voting against something?
     
  15. No Worries

    No Worries Member

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    Kerry Republicans.
     
  16. Woofer

    Woofer Member

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    Heck, Orrin Hatch is being hounded by some Republicans because he dared to *not* toe the party line on "memogate" even though he's one of the most conservative guys in the Senate and usually a yes man.

    http://slate.msn.com/id/2095803/

    Sen. Orrin Hatch
    If this conservative senator isn't safe from conservative attacks, is anyone?
    By Michael Crowley
    Posted Friday, Feb. 20, 2004, at 10:00 AM PT



    Washington's conservative activists have found a traitor in their midst, Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch. The occasion is Memogate, the internal Senate investigation into whether Republican aides unethically (and perhaps illegally) tapped into Democratic computer files containing private judicial-nomination strategy memos and leaked them to the press. The more the story balloons in the media, embarrassing Republicans and distracting them from trying to confirm more judges, the more right-wing activists savage Hatch, the man they hold responsible for it. To them, the Utah Republican has done something "acutely damaging to the struggle to get conservative judges onto the federal bench," as one National Review writer put it this week, in a column widely e-mailed among disgusted activists. Another activist ominously warned in the Washington Post of a "thermonuclear" punishment for Hatch. Also in the Post, Gary Bauer fumed over a "demoralized Republican base around the country" and sounded about ready to stage a public hanging on Capitol Hill.

    No matter that Hatch has spent the past three years fighting nonstop to confirm George Bush's judicial nominees. After Hatch declared himself "mortified" by the file-stealing allegations and said he supported a formal investigation, angry GOP activists—who want to downplay down the scandal—accused him of being a weak-kneed appeaser of Democrats. The National Review's Timothy P. Carney even likened him to Neville Chamberlain.

    That's madness, of course. Under Bush, Hatch has fought bitterly with Democrats over judicial nominations, to the point of shattering an emerging reputation he'd gained for moderation and spoiling some of his old bipartisan friendships. If anything, the real story of Orrin Hatch's recent career is the way the Bush administration took a senator who had been growing mellower and more independent with age and reduced him to a crude partisan attack dog. Yet even Hatch's partisanship isn't enough for the Savonarolas of the right. The right-wing bile over Hatch's Memogate burst of conscience only shows how frighteningly militant Washington's church of conservatism has become.

    .
    .
    .
     
  17. Rockets10

    Rockets10 Member

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    Well I will say that I am one of those Republicans who is absolutely disgusted with Bush and will not be voting for him this time around. However, I can't bring myself to vote for Kerry or Edwards (especially Edwards due to his protectionist beliefs) so I plan on voting for a third party candidate, whomever that may be, or a write-in.

    oohh, the tragic state of American politics . . . :(
     
  18. goophers

    goophers Member

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    I think you'll see a lot of moderate and fiscally-conscious Republicans vote for the Dem candidate (or an independent, depending on how the Dem candidate turns out) in the next election. I know I'm not voting for Bush this time around and it's really up to the Dems to not run someone I really don't like. If I don't like the Dem guy, I'll stay home (which I hate to do) or vote for a third party. I know I'm not the only one that feels this way. Should make for an interesting November.
     
  19. Rocketman95

    Rocketman95 Hangout Boy

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    You're just saying that to appease Deckard and Major. :rolleyes:
     
  20. rrj_gamz

    rrj_gamz Member

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    Blah, Blah, Blah...:rolleyes:
     

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