NV, SC, and Super Tuesday (and FL, MI)

Well, now the races get more interesting, on both sides. First, there's much more time between races - so there's not going to be this 24/7 campaigning and political coverage.

On the Dem side, the original thinking was that Obama wins NV & SC, and goes for a dominant run through Super Tuesday. Hillary aims to win a few big states - NY, California, etc and solve her place on the delegate count. All of that now is blown out of the water.

Obama got an endorsement of Service Employees in Nevada today. At 2pm (Eastern? local? not sure), the Culinary Workers will make their announcement - if Obama gets that, it helps him a lot. Not sure who wins this race, but I suspect it's Obama due to the Demographics. I think whoever wins NV wins SC, again due to Demographics. Black voters need to believe Obama can win (not sure why, but that's the thinking) and a win in NV gets that back; lose that, and maybe Clinton gets the black vote back.

Regardless, nothing will be decided at either of these places. Too small states, not enough delegates, and the media coverage will not be as frenzied as this last week for a "bounce". So both sides will be targetting Super Tuesday states - this will get interesting. Apparently, about half are "closed primaries" where only Dems vote, meaning Hillary has an advantage. The rest are open so independents can join the fun. You figure Obama has strength in the southern states, but I'm not positive. Not sure how the west plays out.

On the GOP side, SC will split between McCain & Huckabee in some form. I don't know what happens in Nevada, but I imagine Guiliani does well finally. Thompson probably finally drops out after SC. Super Tuesday is the same there - except with even more intrigue. McCain, Guiliani, Huckabee each will appeal to some of these states. Romney is funded far more than any of the above. It'll also be interesting to see what the bigger story is - who wins more states or who wins more delegates. It's very possible one candidate wins a majority of the states but places 2nd or 3rd in total delegates.

All in all, for the first time in my memory, I don't think anything will be decided on Super Tuesday. States that have been long ignored will become important.

 

Here are the Super Tuesday states:

 

March 4th - Ohio is the same day. If this race isn't decided then (very possible), we're going to have candidates going crazy across the state because us and Ohioh will be the last big states left.

Here is the calendar, I think:

GOP: http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/primaries/republicanprimaries/index.html

Dem: http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/primaries/democraticprimaries/index.html

 

Also interesting here is that Obama/Edwards aren't on the Dem ticket. Obama's people are asking dems to go vote "Uncommitted" but that's no fun. It's an open primary, so apparently many are going to ask to vote in the Republican primary, which adds all sorts of new quirkiness to it!

 

Obama got the big Nevada endorsement, so that helps stabilize him there. Hopefully he can win that and springboard that to a win in SC.

http://www.reuters.com/article/poli...Type=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&rpc=22&sp=true

LAS VEGAS (Reuters) - Barack Obama rebounded from a close loss to Hillary Clinton and won the support of the heavily Hispanic union representing Las Vegas casino workers on Wednesday ahead of the next Democratic presidential contest.

The Obama endorsement by the Culinary Workers Union, whose 60,000 members service the famed hotels and casinos on the Las Vegas strip and is a major political force in Nevada, was a blow to Clinton, who had campaigned for its backing in the state's January 19 contest.

"We had a wonderful dilemma," D. Taylor, the union's secretary treasurer, told a noisy news conference. "It's been a very difficult decision."

"We understand we are going against the Democratic power establishment ... we are used to being underdogs," he added.

Clinton, the New York senator aiming to become the first woman president in the November election, had led in polls in Nevada and courted the union and Hispanics, which make up 45 percent of the union's membership.

The group's parent organization, UNITE HERE, with 460,000 food service, gaming and other workers nationwide, also expressed support for Obama, the Illinois senator who is hoping to become America's first black president.

"It's a little bit of a surprise," said David Damore, an associate professor of political science at the University of Nevada at Las Vegas. "A lot of people expected, especially after Clinton's turnaround in New Hampshire yesterday, that they would go for the establishment candidate."

Clinton, the former first lady, narrowly beat Obama in Tuesday's New Hampshire primary after trailing by double digits in public opinion polls leading up to the voting.

Democrats moved up the Nevada contest to third for 2008 because the Western state with its large Hispanic population and diverse mix of people was seen as more representative of the rest of the United States than Iowa and New Hampshire.

The Culinary Union endorsement is also a setback to former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, who worked hard to build labor support in the key primary states and finished third in New Hampshire, well behind Clinton and Obama.

Nevada is considered a political swing state that could go either Republican or Democrat in the general election in November, and it has backed the winner every year since President Richard Nixon in 1972.

"A union endorsement is important," Ken Fernandez, an assistant professor and expert on unions at the University of Nevada at Las Vegas.

Obama in a statement stressed his long time support for unions and plans to address the group on his trip to Las Vegas on Friday.

 

I suspect Edwards staying in hurts - he draws from male voters and those that don't want Clinton. Generally, these kinds of elections are mostly referendums on the "incumbent" which Clinton basically is. People first decide "do I like Clinton" and then if they say no, they pick from the various challengers. That's not 100% accurate of course, but I'd say the vast majority of Edwards votes would go to Obama before Clinton. You also saw this in Iowa where there was a need for 2nd place votes. Most people said that those who voted for Obama/Edwards had the other as their second place vote and Clinton 3rd.

Richardson and his 3-5% are more up in the air I think. He appeals to minorities, so that might help Obama. But he also plays up the experience card, so I think his support might lean more towards Clinton.

 

I think that's exactly where he is. Obama/McCain and he's definitely out. Hillary/Huckabee and he's definitely in. Some combo of Obama/someone else, my gut says he stays out. Some combo of Hillary/someone else, I suspect he jumps in.

He's moderate, but I think if he joins, his goal is to get the same voter base Obama has - moderates, independents, anti-Hillaries, and crossover Republicans.

 

Apparently, John Kerry will be endorsing Obama soon. I find this interesting - not sure if it's good or bad.

1. Kerry, like him or not, has a lot of connections within the Dem party. Obama may need some of that help down the line trying to get hard-core Dems away from Hillary.

2. It's interesting to see big names turning against Hillary; if Biden/Dodd do it also, it will help Obama in the NE on Super-Tuesday, especially in their two states. It takes a lot of guts to go against the Clinton machine, so it might be a sense that the party is ready for something different.

3. Voters are tired of Kerry - he represents a return to the past. Does that hurt Obama's change message?

 

More endorsements. I'm truly surprised people are openly willing to go against Hillary right now. They've got to know if she wins, they are screwed.

WASHINGTON (CNN) – South Dakota Sen. Tim Johnson will endorse Illinois Sen. Barack Obama for president, two sources tell CNN.

Rep. George Miller of California will also back Obama's presidential bid. Miller is a top advisor to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/

Hillary, despite being the only candidate on the ballot, apparently also has competition from "Uncommitted" in Michigan. State and local leaders are trying to get Edwards/Obama supporters to vote Uncommitted. It would be pretty funny to see Hillary lose to Uncommitted. They certainly have enough votes (Hillary's not going to get 50% if it was a real election), but whether they show up or not is another story.