one thread to rule them all... My predictions: -Kerry: wins, keeping his momentum, but it's closer than most people expect. He makes a cursory effort in S.C. concentrating on Super Tuesday and Missouri, which is now in play following Gephardt's withdrawal. -Dean: runs a strond second, repairing some of the damage from Iowa. His money and orgaization keep him in the race, but given he expected to win both Iowa and NH, the question becomes where can he win. Certainly not S.C., which becomes a two man race between Clark and... -Edwards: nips Clark and Lieberman for third, continuing his string of stronger than expected finishes. He takes S.C. the following week too, but with little national organization, can he really win the nomination, or does he become the consensus #2? -Lieberman: Does "better than expected" by edging Clark, but it's still fourth place. Realizes there's no way to win and honorably withdraws, which argueably should be the course of action for... -Clark: his campaign takes a major hit as voters begin to take his measure and realize there was something to the "character and integrity issues" that got him dismissed from his NATO post. His continued unwillingness to disavow Michael Moore's "deserter" comments hurt his as voters see him as a political opportunist, willing to traffic in wacky conspiracy theories as he scrounges for votes. The Clinton organization keeps him going through super Tuesday, but the campaign goes nowhere and he eventually withdraws, becoming provost at The Citadel, where he's relentlessly hazed for wearing argyle. By next week, it's a three man race, Kerry, Dean, and Edwards. Edwards has loads of charm, big, enthusiastic crowds, and the question becomes can he put together enough of an organization to beat Kerry in the trenches. A Kerry/Edwards ticket looks more and more likely, offering voters strong contrst to Bush/Chenet and a real choice in November.
I doubt you're right about a strong second for Dean. I think a weak second's more likely, but there's really no predicting it. If Lieberman bests Clark, there's no way he drops out. I know you Republicans like to ascribe honorable qualities to the only true Republican running in the Dem primary, but he hasn't shown anything so much as a strong will to act as spoiler. If he hits double digits and places fourth, he's staying in. I'm not a Clark fan, but you're dead wrong on him. Whether there are character issues or not (and I sincerely doubt there are), neither Shelton's weak-ass, unsubstantiated, cowardly hit and run accusations nor the deserter stuff will hurt him at all. At ALL. That's a Fox News fantasy. If he crashes it'll be because (A) Kerry's Clark plus and (B) he's a very weak politician. And it's highly likely he will crash, but not at all for the reasons the right would like to think he would. Meanwhile, you guys better hope against hope it's not Kerry-Edwards. The criticisms being floated against them are weaker than hell.
I agree with you for the most part, but I think (and hope) Edwards is closer to Kerry and Dean than Lieberman & Clark in the end - another late surprising surge. I think that gives him a huge boost for Feb 3rd, maybe allowing him to win 1 or 2 southern states besides SC. That might make the race really interesting. I'm not sure any of the states on Feb 3 are winnable by Dean - except maybe Delaware - so that might destroy any momentum he gets out of finishing a strong 2nd this tomorrow. Regardless, this is one of the most fun political contests I've seen in a long time.
I keep wondering why basso repeats what he hears on Fox, Rush and so on regarding Clark. The argument that he's a "weak" (I would say, "woefully inexperienced") politician is so much more on target. But you keep repeating the party line, basso... character assassination being more the style of the GOP these days. That's weak.
I'm very ambivalent about Dean's race. I still think he was done wrong by Lieberman, Kerry and the media consensus to attack Dean for rocking the oat on the unecessary war that the media wimped out on till after the fact. This makes me root for Dean and after all I'm still proud to have two of his bumper stickers on my car as I drive around Houston. If Dean can't beat Kerry , maybe it would be best if he loses momentum and fades fast so he doesn't become a Lieberman like spoiker, but from the left. On the other hand, it is Dean who has made the race interesting and generated additional attention. Dean has forced Kerry not to be so dull. At this point Dean is still setting the tone of the race. Otherwise it would be a bunch of dull guys hoping to quietly steal enough moderates away from Bush to squeak out a win. IMHO you can't quietly sneak over on Bush with his hundreds of millions, evangelical working class folk and his total control over right wing talk radio and Fox. At this point if not too much blood is spilt it is looking good for the Dems as Bush has lost his little bounce from the capture of Sadam and an increase in stock prices. Polls show Bush falling behind Kerry and it is unclear where he will get another bounce.
I've been trying to remember the last time a President's poll numbers went down after a State of the Union address. Not a lot has been made of it, but I bet Rove and company are sweating bullets over the thud that resounded. They would have expected a bounce from that, no question about it.
To be fair, basso's view of Clark does have some real substantation. Through school, I've been able to hear from people in the military both at the low levels and upper levels (including under Clark's command in Bosnia) and while many won't outright say anything about him, there's a clear level of distrust and dislike. Now, the reason for that, I don't really know. I believe part of it is that the Army is not thrilled with him because he went around Army leadership straight to the Clinton team to get his NATO commander post, against the Army recommendation.
glynch: Totally agree about Dean. The next president of the United States (be it Kerry or Edwards or even Clark) owes his job to Dean. He continues to define the race. He's Goldwater without having to be nominated and losing -- he moved the party during the primary and they should be grateful. Thanks to Dean, Kerry (or Edwards or even Clark) has a much better shot. As for where Bush will get another bounce? Easy. Osama. I will be shocked if he's not caught or killed before the election. If Dean was the nominee that would have been devastating to his chances. Any of the other guys aren't hurt that badly by it, but Bush will get a serious bounce.
I posted this in another thread, and it went over like a lead balloon, so I'll drop it here. For what it's worth, I seem to remember that Zogby is usually more accurate than most public polls (Zogby's got Dean trending to a close second to Kerry.). I've seen him nail stuff when his polls looked completely different from everyone else's. Watch, somebody's going to Google and come up with 37 examples of Zogby being off ... I tend to believe the trend lines on these things. In Iowa, Kerry was clearly trending up and Dean was trending down for weeks. The trend continued on Election Day, resulting in a pretty big Kerry victory. Although NH is pretty unpredictable and they love to send a "message" with their presidential primary vote (see McCain, John and Buchanan, Pat), I see the trend continuing on Election Day and Kerry only barely beating Dean. I don't see a clear-cut Dem nominee until late Feb, maybe early March.
Dean's done folks.... He NEEDED a huge win in both Iowa and New Hampshire to show that he can be viable as the nominee. BUt he finished a WEAK third in Iowa, and wont get a huge win or loss in New Hampshire. This race is between JOhn kErry and JOhn Edwards now as I see it. If Kerry were to lose tomorrow , the bounce wont go to Dean, it will go to JOhn Edwards as long as he finishes strong. John Kerry loses: John Edwards can seal it up in the south. John Kerry wins: Edwards and Kerry battle it out until March. Wes Clark can still be a wild card though...but not if he gets 4th or 5th .
Khan: Saw that other post. Doesn't actually matter that much if Zogby's right. If Dean pulls out a win, it only delays the inevitable. That said, I agree with you that the Zogby poll shouldn't be blown off. You can see the daily movement back towards Dean in other three-day tracking polls. That's consistent with the Zogby take that Dean's enjoying another small surge. Troy: Agree completely. And I'd be shocked if Clark pulled off third. As hard as it is to predict this sort of thing, it's a good bet it's Kerry, Dean, Edwards, Clark, Lieberman. I look forward to a surprise of some sort though. This election is a politics junkie's wet dream.
Zogby had Kerry beating Dean by 1 % , and Edwards in third last week. Also, dont forget McCain and Patty Patty Buch Buch are Republicans. the Dem primary in New Hampshire picked Al Gore (favorite) in 2000, Paul Tsongas (homeboy) in 1992 and Michael Dukakis (homeboy) in 1988.
Agreed. I just think it delays it for several weeks. I think even a strong second place finish gives his campaign another shot in the arm (maybe even allowing himself to call himself the "comeback kid"?) and will translate into an avalance of dough. That, plus his organization will keep him in the race for several weeks. Only Dean and Kerry can run national campaigns at this point, and after NH it's all about being able to wage war on multiple fronts. I see Dean and Kerry both picking up a couple of states in the coming weeks (Dean could do real well in MI) -- IF Dean finishes a strong second, which I think he will.
How did I forget that? I said that I thought Kerry (homeboy and favorite) would come in first. Just not in a blowout. Anyway, it's not even a D/R thing that made NH batty in 96 and 2000 on the Rep primary. It was the independent voters who are allowed to vote in either primary who put those guys over the top. Unclear who they might go with tomorrow in the Dem primary.
wrathokhan: Totally disagree with you here. The whole reason the Dean campaign (and the Clark one, for that matter) had legs is that Kerry and Edwards didn't exist yet. Now they do. I fancy myself a great example of a serious Democrat who's been seriously disappointed in the Democratic party. Dean got me excited again. He spoke to those things that make the party vital, to those values the party holds that are common to regular Americans -- the values that, in the era of the DLC and various types of handlers, had been forgotten or sublimated by the party, which is the number one reason that Gore lost even though he won and reasons one, two, three and all the rest that they got stomped in 02. But the Dean revolution worked and now we have Kerry and Edwards actually running as proud Democrats, who understand why this party exists and why it is crucial to the future of this country, on a platform that can and will win. And, as such, Dean's no longer necessary and neither is Clark. We needed them because we had no real, strong candidates. Now we do and their work is done. I'll understand if Dean loses NH and stays in through Feb. 3. But if he loses then and stays in anyway, he goes from being the savior of the party to being Nader. I respect the hell out of Dean and I don't think that's him for a minute. He's already won. If he doesn't understand that, somebody ought to explain it to him.
Bats, It's cool that you disagree. I figured I'd be flying solo with my take -- kind of like picking a dark horse to make the Final Four. By the way, I'm not a Deaniac. So I'm not making the "Dean is in this for at least another month" argument out of support for him. I've got my own opinions about the Dean "movement," but I'm going to keep them to myself in case Trippi is reading this board. Anyway, I mostly agree with what you said in the last post. But you're talking high-concept. I'm talking about having the resources to wage a nationwide campaign. (Something Edwards won't have unless he comes in 1st or 2nd tomorrow.) I think that a strong second from Dean will insure he has the resources to stay in it for a little longer. Look, AFSCME has dropped like $1.3 million for Dean already -- they're not going to go away at this point. Neither will SEIU. And Dean will still be able to raise gobs of money over the Internet if he finishes a couple points behind Kerry tomorrow. So, tactically, I think Dean lives on. The key is finishing a strong second so he looks like he as momentum -- otherwise, the money dries up. But he will have to win a state or two on Feb 3. I think we agree on everything except that I think he will win some states on 2/3 and then he lives to fight on -- with two winnable states (WI and MI) in the next couple weeks. Of course, I said all this before checking which states are on 2/3. Not sure which one of those ones I actually see him winning ...
Dark Roarke: We're almost in complete agreement. We differ on a major point though. I admit my point's high concept, but I think the whole race is high concept right now and so's the money that follows. No one that hasn't given Kerry or Edwards 2,000 yet is tapped out on giving. If they show momentum, they'll get that money. To be clear, we've never, ever seen a race like this. Dean broke fundraising records before a single vote was cast and crashed the minute they were. The pundits are wrong that he crashed of his own volition though -- he crashed because Kerry and Edwards (and, to an extent, Clark) caught on to the simple, right message he espoused. And they can carry that banner not just as well as Dean, but better. Pre-all that the unions and Gore and Bradley and Harkin and Ann Richards and Molly Ivins and the rest had every reason to cast their lots with Dean -- there was no one else. Now there is. The endorsers (individuals and unions) were right to endorse and their work is done. And they know it. I've no doubt the Dean campaign wants to go this one alone as the endorsements didn't help much in Iowa, but no one else should doubt that the unions and pols are grateful for not having to ride with Dean right now. They, and the money folk (big and small contributors), sense the sea change. Dean could finish first in NH, by a large margin, and he still wouldn't match his previous fundraising. Dean's success was never as much about him as it was about the rest of the field. And the rest of the field's adjusted. Give him first in NH and he still wouldn't win Michigan. Book that. Time for him to declare victory and move on down the line. He's earned it.
Looks like the Independents of Dixville Notch broke Clark's way: http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=514&e=1&u=/ap/20040127/ap_on_el_pr/first_votes Clark Wins Inital N.H. Primary Votes By STEPHEN FROTHINGHAM, Associated Press Writer DIXVILLE NOTCH, N.H. - Wesley Clark (news - web sites) won the initial votes cast Tuesday morning in New Hampshire's Democratic presidential primary, the first be counted in a state primary this year. Clark had been the only major candidate to visit two of the state's smallest hamlets — Dixville Notch and Hart's Location — where residents cast and count their votes in the early minutes of Election Day. Clark won Dixville with 8 votes. Sen. John Kerry (news - web sites) had 3, Sen. John Edwards (news - web sites) 2 and Howard Dean (news - web sites) and Sen. Joe Lieberman (news - web sites) 1 each. Clark received 6 votes in Hart's Location. Kerry had 5, Dean 3 and Edwards 2. Clark was on hand in Dixville at the Balsam's hotel as the ballots were counted minutes after midnight. Officials and voters in both far northern towns had predicted the retired four-star general likely would be rewarded. "I'm predicting a win for the general," Michael Pearson, a Dixville Notch selectman, said before the vote. There are no registered Democrats in Dixville Notch, population 33, and just five in Hart's Location, which has 39 residents. But state law allows independents to register with a party at the polling place and vote in its primary. Most of Dixville Notch's 16 independents and Hart's 14 were expected to vote in the Democratic primary. Dixville marked a milestone, the first presidential primary since town patriarch Neil Tillotson died two years ago at 102. Tillotson was the moderator at Town Meeting and owner of the Balsams and an adjacent latex factory. From 1960 to 2000, he marked midnight on his wristwatch and cast the first vote. This year the hour was marked by Tillotson's son, Tom, the new moderator. The name of the first voter was drawn from a hat.
Clark is in the lead by a commanding 6 votes over Kerry after Dixville Notch and Hart's whatever. Dean and Edwards are struggling.
