NFL 2005: Can Carr get protection he needs to lead Texans?

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By KRISTIE RIEKEN, Associated Press Writer
September 9, 2005

HOUSTON (AP) -- David Carr is finally embracing his role as leader of the Houston Texans.

But will the oft-sacked quarterback be able to stay upright long enough for his new attitude to make a difference?

``I know we will be better this year,'' said Carr, who was sacked a league-high 49 times last season. ``The line is jelling and that will make our team better.''

If the line can protect him, the offense has a chance to be explosive. Carr has Pro Bowl receiver Andre Johnson and 1,000-yard rusher Domanick Davis to rely on.

Davis' familiarity with Houston's zone blocking scheme should also help improve Carr's production.

``We've always had signs of being explosive, but we've never kept it up,'' Carr said. ``If we can be consistently explosive it would be great.''

Johnson agreed.

``As long as we're consistent, we're going to go out and win more games,'' he said.

Although coaches and players alike say the offensive line is better this season, it is virtually the same porous lineup from 2004.

Victor Riley, who played for New Orleans last season, is the only new starter on the unit. He's struggled with his weight and conditioning throughout his career, but coach Dom Capers is confident he'll strengthen the line.

Carr was sloppy in the second half of the preseason, throwing two interceptions each in the last two games, and completing only one pass in the last outing. It dampened the hopes of Texans fans who have their sights set on the playoffs in Year 4 of the expansion franchise. Carr, however, was not rattled by the lackluster performances.

``We're over that,'' he said. ``We just got to be concerned with what we're doing now. If we lost confidence in ourselves that we couldn't play anymore, then we'd be better off sitting at home watching the game. I don't think that's our guys at all.''

Capers, an expansion veteran, has brought his team along slowly and build for future success. He doesn't put too much focus on making the playoffs this year, but said he looks for improvement each year.

So far his expectations for steady improvement have been met. The Texans won seven games last season after winning five in 2003 and four in their first season.

``I believe we have our most talented group,'' Capers said. ``We have attempted to stay consistent in following the plan. We have improved each season and I think this will be the most competitive team we've had.''

While Houston left most of the offense as it was, it spent plenty of time tinkering with the defense.

And it's all about speed and youth. The Texans dropped four older defensive players who had been with the team since the first season. The team's leading tacklers in 2004, Jamie Sharper and Jay Foreman, were cut. Safety Eric Brown and cornerback Aaron Glenn were also released.

Their top draft pick, defensive end Travis Johnson, won't start, but will rotate into the defensive line in Capers beloved 3-4 scheme to push aging veterans Gary Walker and Seth Payne.

Phillip Buchanon, known more for his bad attitude than his playmaking abilities in Oakland, joins the secondary. Coaches are high on the player and he'll start at cornerback opposite Dunta Robinson.

Houston is expecting a lot out of Robinson after he started every game as a rookie and had 85 tackles and six interceptions.

``I've always been a confident guy,'' Robinson said. ``Now that I have experience it will show even more.''

The team ranked 23rd in defense last season, allowing more than 341 yards a game. It also had the NFL's least productive pass rush with only 24 sacks.

Houston has a new look in it's linebacking corps with the addition of inside linebacker Morlon Greenwood and the move of Kailee Wong to the inside. Capers hopes the linebacker shuffle will help the team create a legitimate pass rush.

``I think we've gotten some good pressure, but you are always working to try to get solid pressure out of the four-man rush,'' he said. ``I think we still need to work on that.''

Walker, an 11-year NFL veteran, knows the key to success won't be individual performances.

``I think the strength of the defense is not going to be one particular position, but how well we play together,'' Walker said, ``because a lot of this defense is people doing everything together. Our success this season will depend on how quick we can get on the same page and stay there.''

 

Prediction from ESPN NFL Insider:

Can Carr, Texans handle Bills?
By Scouts, Inc.

Why To Watch

Both teams have playoff aspirations and need to get off to a fast start in tough divisions. Expectations are high in Houston, and head coach Dom Capers could start feeling heat if the Texans start slow. QB David Carr has improved steadily each season, and the Texans believe he is poised to make big strides this year after the team simplified the offense.
For the Bills, it will be interesting to watch the changeover from pocket passer Drew Bledsoe to the more mobile and athletic J.P. Losman. The Bills have explosive offensive playmakers in RB Willis McGahee and WR Eric Moulds, and they ranked second overall defensively in yards allowed last season. If the defense can hold form and Losman can spark the offense, Buffalo could be an intriguing team to watch.

When the Texans have the ball -

Rushing: Texans offensive coordinator Chris Palmer is a firm believer that you must have balance in your offense in order to survive in this league -- especially with a young quarterback. With four of five starters returning on the offensive line and a year of experience in the zone-blocking schemes, the offense must be focused on attacking downhill against the Bills' front seven.

RB Domanick Davis is a versatile ballcarrier who plays in both regular and sub packages. He is a tough, downhill, zone runner with the ability to be effective on both inside and outside running plays. Davis has exceeded expectations and is developing into a frontline runner, but he must protect the ball in critical situations in this game. FB Moran Norris is the top blocker for Davis, and the Texans will utilize backup RB Jonathan Wells and TE Matt Murphy as Norris' backups, which gives them more versatility to attack the Bills' athletic linebackers.

Buffalo defensive coordinator Jerry Gray employs an attacking defense out of a 4-3 scheme. The Bills' run defense was stout last year, allowing 100.3 yards per game and improved from last in the league in takeaways in 2003 (1 to first in '04 (39).

The biggest concern facing the Bills in the front seven is the departure of DT Pat Williams to Minnesota. RDT Ron Edwards started all 16 games two seasons ago and registered 68 tackles; he is listed as the starter opposite LDT Sam Adams, who does an excellent job of clogging up the middle against the run. Edwards has good size, but he's still a little raw in his technique and needs to play with more consistency. The Bills linebacker corp starts its third consecutive season together and is led by MLB London Fletcher and WLB Takeo Spikes -- both very active players the Texans must slow down.

Passing: The Texans' goal this offseason was to keep developing as an offensive unit and to simplify the passing attack with shorter drops and quicker routes. No quarterback in the past three seasons has been sacked more than Carr (140 sacks). Carr must be patience and make good decisions with the ball against an aggressive defense that brings pressure from everywhere on the field. He must be strong in his progression reads, take what the defense is giving him and not force throws into double coverage. RB Davis -- a quality receiver out of the backfield -- could play a critical role in these situations.

Look for Buffalo's defensive staff to match DC Nate Clements on WR Andre Johnson due to Terrance McGee's height deficiency. In sub packages, FS Troy Vincent has the versatility to move down and cover the slot receiver, depending on Johnson's alignment. SS Lawyer Milloy is a smart, instinctive player who does his best work when matched up in short zones rather than deep zones. Buffalo's rise in takeaways from an NFL-low 18 to a league best 39 was triggered by an improved pass rush, led by second-round picks Chris Kelsay and Ryan Denney, who combined for 7.5 sacks to complement Aaron Schobel's 8 sacks.

When the Bills have the ball

Rushing: Head coach Mike Mularkey has molded the Bills into a power-running team. They will depend heavily on RB Willis McGahee and FB Daimon Shelton to take pressure off of first-year starting QB Losman, using the run to set up the pass against the Texans.

The Bills will attack behind RT Mike Williams, RG Chris Villarrial and OC Trey Teague to create run seams off front-side zones. They must also hold their blocks on the backside to insure possible cutbacks plays. Don't be surprised if McGahee carries the ball more than 30 times in this game and the Bills try and hammer away at an inexperienced linebacker corp.

The Texans 3-4 defensive front requires the linemen to stay square, hold the line of scrimmage and control their gap responsibilities, which allows the linebackers to get downhill and force the run. Expect the Texans to use some different alignments in their 3-4 and some run blitzes to force Buffalo to run east-west and not north-south.

Projected starting SS Glenn Earl has been sidelined during training camp with a separated shoulder, and though rookie sixth-round pick C.C. Brown has made a strong case for the starting position, this could be concern in the run defense.

Passing: Offensive coordinator Tom Clements and QB coach Sam Wyche must simplify things and limit the options in the passing game in order to get the best results out of Losman. The second-year QB brings less experience than Bledsoe, but he's a better athlete and has much more mobility outside the pocket. The Bills' offensive line has been a work in progress over the last few years but made strides last season under offensive line coach Jim McNally. The Bills allowed only 15 sacks over the final 10 games and 38 for the year.

Houston defensive coordinator Vic Fangio believes in an attacking 3-4 defense that keeps offenses off balance by bringing pressure from different areas of the field. The Texans are a zone-blitz team and do a very good job of mixing up coverages and personnel groupings in nickel situations. But they were 23rd in defense last season and at or near the bottom in two key categories: Percentage of QB sacks per opponent passing attempts, and TD passes allowed. The Texans must pick the right situations in which to get pressure on Losman and force him to make poor decisions they can capitalize on to gain good field position.

A critical mismatch Fangio will take advantage of in sub situations is either OLB Kailee Wong or OLB Jason Babin vs. Buffalo LT Mike Gandy. Also, look for first round pick Travis Johnson to be a force inside in passing situations. Gandy, the former Bears starter, replaces Jonas Jennings at tackle but would be a better fit at guard. DC Dunta Robinson has the ability to develop into a shutdown corner and could match up in the slot vs. Eric Moulds in sub situations. However, WR Lee Evans can make explosive plays in the passing game.

Take 2: Texans vs. Bills
By Scouts, Inc.

QB DL = Texans
RB WR OL LB DB ST Coach Overall = Bills

This will be an extremely difficult early test for the Texans to find out where they are mentally. The last time they took the field in a game with any meaning, they were booed off their home field after getting it handed to them by a Cleveland Browns team that was spiraling out of control and had absolutely nothing to play for. This is a must-win season for fourth year head coach Dom Capers. In watching tape of the last game of the 2004 season, it was very clear that his team quit on him. If the Texans struggle and there are any signs of quitting early on this season, Capers will be lucky to make it to the end of the season.
Despite ranking 29th in the NFL last season in sacks allowed (49 total), the Texans did very little to upgrade their offensive line this offseason. The only addition to the starting unit is UFA Victor Riley, a much better run blocker than pass blocker. Riley does not figure to be much of an upgrade in pass protection over Seth Wand, so give offensive coordinator Chris Palmer some credit for re-tooling their offensive system this past offseason. Expect to see David Carr taking shorter 3- and 5-step drops and getting rid of the ball a lot quicker. This should help Carr get in a better rhythm and improve his confidence and completion percentage.

The Bills defense finished the 2004 season ranked second overall (seventh vs. the run and third vs. the pass). Defensive coordinator Jerry Gray and the entire Bills defense are one of the more underrated units in the NFL. Expect this unit to pick up right where it left off in 2004. This is a blitz heavy, hard-hitting unit that will come after Carr the minute he steps between the numbers. Look for the Bills to blitz early and often as they try to disrupt the timing of the Texans quick pass offense. Blitzing will also make it very difficult for the Texans and their marginal offensive line to get into a flow in the run game.

The biggest concern for the Bills offense right now is the quarterback position. J.P. Losman will be the triggerman early on, but the Bills may not stay with him if he struggles. According to sources in the Bills camp, head coach Mike Mularkey would prefer to go with the veteran Kelly Holcomb, while the front office prefers playing their draft choice Losman. One thing is for certain -- Holcomb clearly outplayed Losman in the preseason, so expect Mularkey to have a short leash on Losman in this game. Nothing frustrates a good defense like ineptitude by an offense, and Mularkey may find the natives getting a little restless should the Bills offense struggle to move the ball through the air.

Houston's defense finished the 2004 season ranked a respectable 13th vs. the run. They will be put to the test in this one as they will get a heavy dose of RB Willis McGahee as the Bills offense attempts to take some pressure off of Losman. The Texans have undergone major changes to their linebacker unit this offseason and veterans Jay Foreman and Jamie Sharper are no longer with the team. This is going to be an extremely young unit that will struggle early in the season. The Texans will be geared up to stop the run, so look for Buffalo offensive coordinator Tom Clements to use a lot of different formations, shifts and motion in their run game as to confuse the young Texans linebacker core.

For the Texans to have any chance to pull an upset here, RB Domanick Davis is going to have to carry the load. While MLB London Fletcher is excellent in run support, he can be a liability at times in coverage. Look for Palmer to try to get Davis isolated on Fletcher in man coverage. Davis, who has soft hands and runs good routes, is an excellent safety valve receiver coming out of the backfield. He is shifty and can make the Bills linebackers miss in space. Davis needs 35-plus touches in this game if Houston is going to pull the upset.

The Texans know they don't have the offensive line to physically dominate the front 7 of the Bills. Look for the Texans to try to spread the field offensively and run out of three- and four-receiver packages. This will spread out the Bills linebackers and give Davis more room to operate between the tackles. If the Texans line up with standard personnel (2 RB/2 WR/1 TE), they will be playing right into the hands of the Buffalo fefense.

Texans defensive coordinator Vic Fangio is a big believer in zone blitz concepts. The Texans ranked dead last in 2004 in sacks with 24, and they did not have one player with more than six. That said, he knows he needs to get pressure on Losman in this game. Look for the Texans to bring extra pressure in this game via the safety blitz. Nothing bothers a young quarterback more than pressure coming right into his face. They must pick their spots and be disciplined though -- Losman is a good running quarterback capable of picking up first downs with his feet.

Special Teams

When you talk about special teams, nobody's are more "special" than the Buffalo Bills. They finished 2004 ranked second in kickoff returns, fifth in punt returns, and second in kickoff coverage. Kickoff return man Terrence McGee averaged 26.3 yards per return and had three touchdowns. The punt returning duo of Nate Clements and Jonathan Smith each scored a touchdown. Houston must contain their explosive return units if they have any chance of pulling an upset in this one.

Buffalo also has the advantage in the kicking game. Houston PK Kris Brown has been plagued by inconsistency and was only 10 of 17 last season outside of 30 yards. That is a poor percentage for a kicker that has the comforts of Reliant Stadium. Bills PK Rian Lindell was 24 of 28 last season. While his accuracy is solid, he does not have the big leg. That could be a factor if the wind is blowing in off the lake. PT Brian Moorman is one of the best young punters in the NFL and gets the nod over Houston's Chad Stanley.

Matchups

Buffalo MLB London Fletcher vs. Houston RB Domanick Davis

Houston LOT Victor Riley vs. Buffalo RDE Aaron Schobel

Buffalo DC Nate Clements vs. Houston WR Andre Johnson

Houston DC Dunta Robinson vs. Buffalo WR Eric Moulds

Houston OC Steve McKinney vs. NT Sam Adams

Scouts' Edge
In some ways this game has mismatch written all over it, but the one X-factor that keeps this game closer than maybe some would expect is that Buffalo has an unproven, young quarterback in Losman.
Carr on the other hand has shown steady improvement from year to year. He will face one of the best defenses in the NFL this week though, and he must take care of the ball and not give easy opportunities to an offensive unit that will be going through some growing pains. The outcome of this game will ride heavily on which team can run the football the most effectively against eight-man defensive fronts.

Buffalo gets the nod here with a more consistent offensive line. This has all the making of a defensive battle or offensive struggle depending on how you want to look at it.

Prediction: Bills 17, Texans 10