Goal: build a championship caliber team Current state: the hated 9th seed. insufficient "chips" to make a "godfather" offer when a D Will type player becomes available. (if you think Morey wouldn't make a godfather offer or go "all in," you're not in the mind of morey). How can we achieve the goal? This is the part that everyone is going to freaking hate, and the part that I think caused the departure/firing of Adelman. - First, how can we create or develop or obtain better chips? In other words, set aside the likelihood of development, first consider only the possibility of development. Scola/Hayes/Miller - little, limited or no ability to become the one or two centerpieces of a mega deal to land the big star. If there is a medical possibility that yao can play, they'll bring him back and Chuck is gone. Martin - limited upside defensively. finished offensive product. Lowry - potential 2nd tier All Star. Could grow into a Billups-in-his-prime value player. Not obviously uber athletic, but young and on the rise. Heady and tough. Grow this asset. Next coach must feature and play him. Fortunately, playing Lowry coincides with winning. Budd and Courtney Lee - Potential non-star starter or 6th-7th man on a contender. Don't tell me that these guys could become all stars. The potential isn't there, not in my or Morey's assessment. If it were, he wouldn't be saying that the foundation isn't in place to build. PatPat - I'm biased b/c I love the guy. Objectively, he can become paul millsap, and would be valuable. And here comes the pain ----- Terrence Williams - Squid has the physical tools to become a legit All-Star, moreso than anyone else on this team. Let that sink in for a moment before you scream NOOO!. The next coach must play and develop him like he would a top 5 or top 10 pick in this coming draft. This will be a required criteria for the next coach, unless Squid is dealt before play resumes. They'll have to coddle, coach and get through growing pains. Remember, we need players that can be centerpieces of a blockbuster deal for a star, or to become a star himself. I bet this was perhaps the biggest issue in the Adelman situation (next to the likely departure of Hayes). Hasheem Thabeet - I don't see all star potential here, but the pure scarcity of true bigs of any quality dictates value. Thabeet has the tools to become a 10/10 center that defends the rim. That would have real value. Not as a centerpiece, but a valuable piece. After a developed Lowry and Williams, a developed Thabeet would have the highest value (yes, even more than a patpat turned to millsap.) Second, consider the likelihood of development (Literally, in this analysis, likelihood is secondary to potential when you're in the Rockets predicament. I mean, we're matt damon in rounders and we're drawing for an inside straight with KGB staring us down over a big stack of chips and time running out. It doesn't quite matter that it's unlikely. It's the only winning play). Lowry and PatPat are very good relative to their age and experience, and will develop. They're good, not elite trade chips. Terrence Williams - Is he a criminal type? no. Drug use? No. Does he have significant maturity issues? Yes, and he won't be the last kid to have them. Can he grow up? maybe. How likely is it that he fulfills his potential? 1 in 10 chance? 1 in 5? In either case, we have to try. We don't have enough assets to pull off a major deal. Sitting Williams on the bench to win 5 more games and land the 7th or 8th seed -- well it's damn clear now that Morey isn't going to stand for that. (See my sig). There are plenty of folks around here that seem to want that 7th or 8th seed and they'll hate this thread. Thabeet - somehow he forgot or never learned to play basketball. Like Squid, treat him like a top 5 pick and see what happens. The new coach will be required to play him 10-15 mins a night. Anything he earns beyond that is based on performance. Will it cost us a few games. Maybe. probably. But so what. So this is the future folks. Lee or Budd will be dealt to a playoff caliber team for a 2012 first round pick in the high teens or 20's. That's an asset that can be paired with our own pick and the Knicks pick to move as high as possible in a quality draft. I'd prefer to deal Budd. I think it will be tough to deal Scola for good value. Starters: Lowry, Martin, Lee, Scola, Thabeet. (If Thabeet grows as a player, Scola would pair well with him) Bench: Dragic, Squid (the swingman backup), PatPat, Yao And the finale - Yao. Yes, he will be back unless medically certain he cannot play. It's all about upside and Yao, under a reasonable contract, has upside. A functioning Yao can be the last piece for a contender and can be traded for a 2012 first rounder in the high teens/low 20's. A functioning Yao can be the last piece to a championship team. ------------ If you read this far, I'm sure you'll have something to say.
1) You don't mention Hill, but we get all that on Thabeet? I hope that's an oversight, 2) You put C Lee and Bud together? Not in my mind. Unlike the OP, though, I can't say what Morey thinks.
I'm on board with trading Budinger and half on board with trading Lee and not re-signing Hayes. In the ideal world I would trade Scola at half his actual value, because he's not going to be around or at least he won't be serviceably good by the time we can contend for a championship again. Anything we could get for him now would be more than what we would get out of him in two years or however long it would conceivably take for us to acquire championship-level talent and build chemistry with that roster. To me the benchmarks are as you say + 1. 1. Start Patterson, the sooner this happens the sooner we'll begin grooming him to be the bruiser role-playing PF he could be to get us to a championship. This role is recurrent throughout NBA history; in fact it's much better to have an enforcer rebounder PF than it is to have one as the focus of your offense if your goal is to win a championship. Really, Duncan's the only one in history who's done it, and he's probably the least 'traditional' PF out of the bunch. But think about guys like Horace Grant, Dennis Rodman, Charles Oakley, Rasheed Wallace, Otis Thorpe. Even Garnett when the Celtics won took a back seat on offense and put all his energy into becoming that mean fouling rebounding machine type. Another similarity most of these guys had was the ability to hit the mid-range jumper. The point is you don't want your PF to be a ballhogging constant posting-up kind of guy like Barkley, Malone, Kemp, Boozer, etc. Those guys get you close but they don't win championships. Patterson is in the mold of a guy that can, however, contribute to championship basketball. 2. Keep Kevin Martin and lock him up with another extension. History now has examples of many SG types with iffy defense but great scoring, and the results consistently show that these guys can get you far in the playoffs. Reggie Miller, Ray Allen, Rip Hamilton, these guys are rare to find in history but if you can get someone who trueshoots > .600 then you hold onto him for dear life because they DO help you win. Would you prefer a Jordan, Kobe Bryant, or Dwyane Wade? Absolutely; unfortunately those guys are even rarer. Stick with Martin. 3. Give Yao a chance but don't bank on him by any means. If he wants anything more than 3M (even if he wants a midlevel) let him go. Start looking for his replacement. Elite centers will always be the biggest piece to any championship puzzle, but as recent history has shown the league has been making it much tougher for these centers to thrive, with the lack of calls down low thanks to Shaq. Thus, the last few champions have been doing it with either defensive minded centers that took backseats to the PF (San Antonio, Boston) or the best imitations possible of an offensive center that isn't a superstar (LA). This is the linchpin to any chance the Rockets have at a title; we NEED a young, talented center and we'll have to do whatever it takes short of giving up Martin, Lowry, or Patterson to do it. 4. As previously stated, FIND THAT SUPERSTAR. The positions I'm looking at in order are 1. Center, 2. Small forward, 3. Point guard, 4. Shooting guard. Like I said I just don't believe in the power of a superstar PF to win it all. SF is easily replaceable at this point. PG we've got a keeper in Lowry but if you have a chance at Paul, Deron, Rose, Westbrook, you still have to make the upgrade no matter how small it might be relative to adding a superstar at other positions (to be fair, Rose and Westbrook have next to zero chance of leaving, so there are only two guys you would conceivably relinquish Lowry for, making PG below C and SF in the order of ranks). SG is sorta like PG except I would only give up Martin for Wade (Kobe's too old), making it absolutely impossible that we would find someone better at this point. It's a tall order to get to a championship level but I like that we're not handcuffed to sinking ships for the first time since 2006.
Sounds like a plan. I think it will go even further than that as Morey has more trades and free agency perhaps rolling around in his head that would constitute relatively large signings or trades to alter those plans slightly.
I'm not seeing why Budinger and Lee are likely to be traded....they may not have the potential to become impact players, but they are young and not only have the potential to be solid role players, but are almost there, especially Lee. You can't build a championship caliber team without solid role players. You can argue that they'll be easier to get than a star, but it's not guaranteed. In fact, we've been in that situation before. All-stars and not enough help around them. Both also have very reasonable contracts, especially Budinger. No need to push them out unless they're used to bring in better players, which is the case with anyone else as well.
If you're gonna rebuild, then start it immediately. First to go: Scola. I really like the guy, but he has no place on a rebuilding team that has Patterson on the roster. Second, don't invest a dime in a guy who can't play minutes and is always injured. You're not looking for a bench piece to put you over the top next season...you're rebuilding, so get on with rebuilding. Turn the page already. Third, it appears there's a lot of talent staying in school and waiting to come out in the next draft. Use that to your advantage. You're nowhere close to being a contender. I'm not sayin'...I'm just sayin'.
agree^ The way it normally works is to trade the older "stars" on the team...on this team it's Scola and Martin...You trade them for a young guys with potential and/or picks. Rockets have no business keeping yao, at any price, if they are truly rebuilding. However, i think Morey still wants to try and win now with martin, yao, and maybe even scola. The "development" angle he's throwing out there is to try and develop assets or simply more help for these guys. If he's truly rebuilding this team he'll trade scola to start patterson. Getting him more PT has to be a priority on a rebuilding team.
then he's an idiot, because that's essentially building around yao and that's building on sinking sand. the other two have already shown you what they are...they'd have been great complimentary pieces to a team with yao playing significant minutes. but pretending that's going to happen and planning for that...and not TRULY REBUILDING will absolutely, positively cost DM his job.
We have to convert some our guys into picks if we are in rebuild mode. 1 pick in the mid teens/year isnt going to help enough. We need those extra picks to increase our chances of landing someone either with all-star potential, or to add to other picks to move up. If we hold on to Lee and Bud, who is left (that are not part of the rebuild) that will bring 1st round picks?
I generally agree TW has the highest potential ceiling. I also agree that RA wasnt the type of coach to sacrifice wins to put in guys who wouldnt behave and play to his standards. I do feel Scola's value will never be higher than right now and should be traded. I like the guy plenty on a team on the cusp of going deep into the playoffs NOW. But looking 2-3 years into the future, a player(s) we get now in need of development for Scola could very well help us more then. Now is the time to get these type of players given that it will take some time to sort them out (see who can cut it) and give them time to mature. Lets face it, only a fraction of players chosen in the mid teens early 20's will work out to truly be helpful. We need to draft and/or trade for as many as possible as to increase the pool size. Not to mention give our "coach to be" and his system time to coalesce.
Scola, martin, maybe chuck...plus we already have three good picks this year. However, i made the mistake of browsing the OP and thought it said bud AND lee should/would be traded. Looking it again, it makes sense, to trade just one (preferably bud). That being said, i still think you gotta trade martin and scola first and see what you can squeeze out of them. A sign and trade with yao may be useful as well...might as well if we're really rebuilding, but like i said before, i don't believe thats the only option Morey has in mind.
If this is what the Rox are going to do, you can see why Adelman did not want to stick around, lol. Now, assuming the OP is correct, how bad is it that there will be a lockout and the players probably won't get a full season to develop? We can't win for losing....sigh. DD
Based on the interest at the trade deadline, Lee will bring more than Bud. Not sure Bud would net a 1st. But im with you as to prefering to move Bud. Yes, Scola should be the obvious guy to move. His value is high and his age is a deterent to keeping on a team that doesnt expect to contend again for 2-4 years. As far as whats on Morey's mind, what jumps out to me is that letting RA go telegraphed his intentions to keep moving pieces around and contend later, not now.
My worry is . . . For Instance .. Pat Patterson IMO will be a STAR! But . . he has to progress . . . . He will be a B Level Player next year I worry they will trade him before he reaches his A Level Potention . . . . . . . esp if he is in the last year of his contract before he gets to 'A' Level. Rocket River
Hopefully, the Rockets would only move such a player in a superstar trade. While theirs the appearance that anyone could get moved, im certain their are players on the roster now that are viewed as part of the rebuild and generally considered untouchable.
My point is. . I think Pat will be a Super Star Don't want to lose him before he reaches that platuea Don't wanna be sitting here in a few years thinking .. MAN . .IF ONLY WE HAD A PAT PATTERSON TYPE PLAYER Rocket River
Sadly I mostly agree with the original post, but maybe not all the details. I think Lowry is our best trade chip right now, even more so than Martin because of his age. I'd hate to see him go, but if he could be packaged for a star player or a high draft pick, I think the Rockets have to do it. At this point, as Morey has so often pointed out, no one on this team is untouchable. That's the sad reality.
