Netenyahu wins, but there may be a little good news too..

Netenyahu is probably the best current world leader.

Great win for Israel. Great win for the United States. Great win for the Middle East.

 

I concur. Great leader. A very admirable country built for survival.

 

Ok putting aside the Palestinian and settler questions, he's done a terrible job. Yair Lapid didn't win 18 seats on foreign policy, they won on the shoddy situation domestically.

Israel is facing the largest income inequality in its history with poverty levels rising every year. Housing is becoming more and more expensive and the government has cut back on subsidies that target the middle class and instead re-directed them towards the Orthodox religious community and the settler community.

Not to mention the shoddy state of Israel's education system and the lack of a water plan for the country as a whole. (Jerusalem in particular is a disaster waiting to happen when it comes to water)

Israel has had the amazing luxury of having the most educated immigration pool in the world. For years the country didn't even have to try and lure immigrants. Educated jews from around the world chose to come and helped build a very successful country.

Well that immigration and talent pool has dried up. Israel now has to produce the next generation of human capital on its own and so far its done a terrible job. Bankrupting and politicizing the education system has been standard practice for the Netanyahu government for years. And all the while, his right wing coalition allies have continually increased subsidies for the religious community and the settlers.

At some point something has to give. There is an ever growing divide between the secular community (which is responsible for producing wealth in the country) and the religious community (which just leaches off of government subsidies while avoiding military service) Yair Lapid's rise was a repudiation of this divide.

Bottom line, Netanyahu lost seats because his domestic policy blows and crying about terrorism and Iran over and over can't hide all of that forever.

So yes he's a god awful leader who is running his country into the ground. How you guys commend him is beyond me.

 

Good post.

As to why those two would commend him in spite of everything you have listed..I will keep it very simple. They are religious fundamentalist/right and they have their agendas, that is why.

It is a good sign that the moderates in Israel are waking up.

 

What religion am I?

Income inequality is meaningless and I couldn't care less about it. As for the rest of the crap you mention, It has existed long before Netenyahu came along. It has to do with being at war for decades. The question you should be asking is have things gotten better? Also almost everything you mention is kind of irrelevant when you are surrounded by enemies trying to wipe your country off the face of the Earth.

 

Far right Republican

 

exactly. The guy has no clue, yet somehow I am a 'religious fundamentalist'. Moronic.

 

No one likes Netanyahu except right-wing Americans with adolescent war fantasies. Most ISRAELIS don't like him, right, left or center.

His own party revolted against him in it's primary and kicked out the last of the sane people and nominated a list of all of the whackos well to the right of Bibi. Plus, 11 of the 31 seats belong to Lieberman's guys, who until very recently, were their own party and could defect as soon as Lieberman gets cleared of his corruption charges.

Then, many of the traditional religious / settler crowd (not ultra-Orthodox Haredi) went with the charismatic Naftali Bennet's new "Jewish Home" party that wants to annex 60% of the West Bank right now and kill any talk of Palestinian nationalism ever again.

What was Likud's base broke either to the nationalistic far-right or the center, and right now, the coalition-building that will be required leaves the Knesset with only a few scenarios.

Right now, outlets are reporting a 60-60 split of left and right, but it's not entirely accurate. You have 4 basic factions:

The Right: (42)
Likud-Beitenu 31
Jewish Home (Bennett's party) 11

The Ultra-Orthodox: (18)
Shas (Ultra-Orthodox Mizrachi) 11
United Torah Judaism (Ultra Orthodox Ashkenazi) 7

Arab Parties: (12)
United Arab List 5
Hadash (Communist) 4
Balad 3

Everyone Else: (Center with a sliver of Left) (48)
Yesh Atid (Yair Lapid's party, anti-Haredi) 19
Avoda (Labor - left but not really pro-peace) 15
Meretz ( left and pro-peace ) 6
Hatnua (Tzipi Livni's party, center & pro-peace) 6
Kadima (once center-right, and mostly Likud refugees -- no real identity) 2



You need 61 seats to form a government. Nettanyahu has the most seats still, but how will he get a coalition?

First, the Arab parties have NEVER been invited to join a coalition, nor have they ever asked to. Even if Lapid was willing (he isn't) and all the Left and Center parties were (they aren't) they would still need one of the religious parties in the mix to form a pro-peace majority, in theory. So forget about a pro-peace government.

Second, Bennett is absolutely against any negotiation or 2 state resolution, so that presumably, that means Meretz, Hatnua, and likely Avoda would not join any coalition with him in it.

Third, Yair Lapid is totally against continuing deferment for the religious to the draft or continuing their free payouts, and would be seen as a total sell-out if he agreed to sit in a government with either of the religious parties. He also said he's not interested in a coalition with Arabs or the Far Left.

Fourth, the religious parties are seen as the natural ally of the right, but they will go with any coalition that offers them more taxpayer money, so they have often been king maker's throughout the history of the Knesset.

Fifth, Hatnua and Meretz said they won't sit in a coalition with Bibi because he's too anti-peace.

Bibi's normal coalition of nationalists and Haredim gives him 60 seats. 1 seat short of a majority! They are still counting the votes of soldiers, so that could give Jewish Home a seat at the expense of United Arab List.

If Bibi CAN'T form a coalition in 28 days I think, then Lapid gets to try. I don't see how he can though. Even if he invited the Arab parties and all of the Left and Center, he's still at 60.



The likliest?

I think it could be a secular coalition, with Likud, Yesh Atid, and Jewish Home and maybe & some of the other center parties (Kadima at least). That would mean the status quo on the Occupation and peace, an emphasis on making the Religious get jobs and join the army, and some tax relief for the middle class. Bibi, Bennett and Lapid are all on the same page for these things.

Avoda is Likud's tradtional rival, but the party has been changed by Shelly Yachimovich. She regained seats by campaigning on bread and butter middle and working class issues and being mostly silent about the Occupation. I could see her joining a coalition if she got the right cabinet position.

Whomever gets the finance portfolio is the partner being thrown under the bus

The global recession got here late, but it's arriving now, and what better than to get the partner you like least to take the fall? I'll be looking to see who gets it. It'll be Bibi's tell of who he sees as the bigger threat, the Center or the Far-Right.

As for Yair Lapid...no one should get their hopes up. He's a talk show host without a high school diploma, and third-rate populist. He has no real agenda other than being "for the middle class" and against "handouts to the Haredim." That's about as vague and easy to get applause for as any politician can come up with.

He tempers every statement with wishy-washyness. He supports peace, BUT doesn't trust that Abbas. He hates theocrats BUT respects grand Jewish tradition. He's never taken a tough stand on ANYTHING and will either be the beard for Bibi as Foreign Minister, or the fall guy as Finance Minister. That's it.

Unless he manages to deliver on his promise to cut off the Ultra-Orthodox and get secular marriages, etc passed, he's also likely to be done in the next election.

His father was a Knesset member with a similar agenda, but Tommy Lapid was way more idealistic, militantly anti-religious, wonkish, and was a huge fan of Anglo-American style government.

He still managed to flame out and was soon out of a job after joining Bibi's cabinet years ago

I actually met both of them shortly before Tommy died...they drank in the same neighborhood bar I did, and Tommy was pretty candid. Yair was a posed pretty boy and seemed all fluff to me.


Nettanyahu will most likely build his coalition, and it will have domestic policies that make the majority happy. But building will continue in the settlements, the saber will continue to rattle, but barring some unforeseen miracle, his career is likely over after this term.

 

Great post, Deji. I'm hopeful that the anti-Haredi movement takes off. I think the rise of the ultra-orthodox is more threatening to Israel than any foreign country, and that - if there is ever peace- it will be because there is a secular government in both Palestine and Israel.

 

Netenyahu is a terrorist.

 

Thanks, but the "secular" in this hypothetical secular coalition is relative, since it's secular only in the sense that it's leaving out the ultra-orthodox parties. No one likes them since their only real agenda is, "give us money and we'll work really hard praying for the country!" They couldn't care less about the country as a whole and most collect benefits to study religion, a sort of institutional welfare. They've lasted forever this way because every coalition has always needed them and had to buy their cooperation to get them.

There are 18 ultra-orthodox seats, but within the Likud and Jewish Home there are 22 more that are religiously observant and either live in or support the settler movement.

That makes 40...the highest number ever in the Knesset. Naftali Bennett is extremely religious, ex-special forces, and very nationalistic and right wing. He's also a self-made millionaire, educated and very bright and scariest of all, he actually believes what he says...it isn't just to stoke populist favor.

The only parties that campaigned specifically for peace were the Arab parties (though technically Hadash is both Arab and Jewish), Hatnua, and Meretz. That's not very encouraging. The election is a win for the middle-class taxpayer, but little else.

 

But there is one thing to be cheery about.

Otzma LeYisrael didn't get the votes to even make it.

They were absolutely the worst party in the Knesset and were brazenly openly bigoted and pro-Kahane.

Michael Ben-Ari (a current member) is so bad the US denied him entry because he is listed as a terrorist.

 

Same breed. Irrational. Agenda driven.

See opening statement of Deji's (who actually resides in Israel) post. The description fits tallanwar and Roxran perfectly.

 

Btw Deji, fantastic post.

 

Wow..... well.... ok.....

 

Yes, Israel is the current beacon on the hilll for right wingers, the world over.

The ironic thing is that as Israel moves further and further right it will be doomed in its present arrangement.. Apartheid racist regimes tend to be unstable.

Gradually the focus of Judaism will shift from the failed apartheid state.

Younger American Jews are gradually starting to disengage from the embarrassing dilemna of supporting right wing, unjust Israel.

 

You are an uneducated idiot.

To the original poster: the good news is that Netanyahu held on to a majority

 

Irony

 

Glad to see Netanyahu hold power