Here is my analysis of teams on the bubble: Almost defintely in: Ind Cinn Color. Auburn LSU ASU S. Illinios (a win by any of the teams in their turneys, if still to be played, would assure it, though they probably don't need it) Probably in: Oregon (but 1 turney victory would make them sleep a lot better) BC (ditto) Zaga (lost in their turney, but should be fine unless a lot of weak teams end up winning auto bids) Butler (should be fine, but early turney exit would make them sweat) Really marginal teams that probably must do well in their turneys to get a look.... NCState Seton Hall Central Mich Weber State Teams out that once looked solid: Coll of Char. (out period) Minn (barring a run in the turney at least to the finals) Bama (ditto) TTech (ditto) W Kent (must win turney) Kent (ditto) I think that is it.
Alabama? Excuse me? You think they WON'T be in? How do you come up with that? Sure they have stumbled mightily since being the AP no. 1, but you CANNOT expect, assume, or even remotely think that Auburn and LSU will get in and Bama won't. How many games has Auburn won against top 50 teams in the RPI? 1 How many games has Alabama won against top 50 teams in the RPI? 5 Sure the Tigers (Auburn) were 8-8 in the SEC, but both Bama and LSU were 7-9. Bama split both games with either team. LSU has only one quality win, that against the Wildcats (Arizona). Both Tigers teams must advance in the SEC tournament to get NCAA considerations. Alabama is almost certainly in with a win against Vanderbilt and a decent outing vs. Kentucky. Indiana, in my opinion, is not going to make the field.
lsu is 8-8 in conference, ahead of alabama. and lsu has won something like 5 or 6 straight games to end the year. How you finish has historistically placed a role in deciding bids. lsu is solidly in but bama is very much on the bubble even if they win against vandy
I feel like Bama is definitely in, though if I were them, I'd take care of Vandy just to be safe. Too many top 50 wins (5 of them), and that makes up for their marginal record in a great conference. If the committee has to pick between auburn and Bama, sorry tigers.... Also, I feel like Colorado is pretty much a lock as well. With tech falling off, i really don't see a scenario in which the buffs don't make it, short of lots of non-tourney teams taking automatic bids by winning their conference tourneys. Those home wins vs kansas, texas, OSU, mizzou and tech, plus that ONE road win over baylor that kept them over .500 in the conference, get them in, no questions asked. They are one of the biggest enigmas in the ncaa's by far, but i think they are in.
#1 Bama's damage was done early in the season. #2 Bama does not have a "marginal record in conference" they have a losing record in conference. I don't care if it is the SEC or even the Big 12--you are majorly penalized for not having a winning record in conference, even worse if you didn't even go 500 in conference. LSU and Auburn both went 8-8, those are the only two teams in the country I believe that will get in the NCAAs with a less than 500 conference record (unless Colorado is 8-8, but I think they are 9-7). #3 Though having Georgia out helps their chances a little, they are still the #7 team out of the SEC (#8 with Georgia included). No #8 from a conference has ever been accepted in the NCAAs. LSU & Auburn have better overall records, better conference record, & better turney seedings, Alabama's slightly better RPI (again built on the early season really) is not enough to make up that difference. For Alabama to feel good about their chances they must do more than beat Vandy, meaning they must at least win two games and the 2nd game if played will be Kentucky. They don't beat Kentucky--they are all but out IMO. St.Louis only has a 15-12 overall record and 47 RPI. I suppose if the get to the CUSA title they have a chance, nothing less. While losing Jones and some big people hurt the Ducks, the main difference in the Duckies from last year is the return of Arizona as a power. Last year they were 2-0 against them, this year they were 0-2, their 20-9 overall record isn't bad and I don't think much different than last year if you flip the Arizona games around. BTW Ridnour is very, very good.
Desert Scar- hey, I'm not necessarily saying that Bama SHOULD get in the tourney, I just think the committee will decide that they should. If any team can get in with a losing conference record, it would be a big 12 team or an SEC team. That said, if any big 12 or SEC team would get in, it's Bama because they have so many high profile wins, including non-conference wins over Oklahoma and Xavier. They have more top 50 wins than some bubble teams combined. They have a top 10 schedule in the nation as well. It would be very interesting to see if they get in if they were to lose to Vandy. I wouldn't be so sure about that. But, I think they will take care of Vanderbilt, and they'll find their way in. Especially the way other teams have floundered down the stretch, like BC, Seton Hall....and Auburn, who did lose 5 of 7 down the stretch. We'll see come Sunday, and I can't wait. Oregon- similar team in some ways to last year, but my god, I don't think I've seen a team weaker at rebounding. I mean, they weren't great at it last year, but if they are missing shots, it's one and out all night long. As painfully slow as Kristofferson was last year, I think he did at least give them an inside presence on offense, defense, and on the boards. Now, it seems they have no low post game at all. Freddie Jones was good, and among other things, he helped take pressure off of Ridnour and Luke Jackson. Jackson has really struggled of late, and although Ridnour is amazing, no one can expect him to carry that team all on his own. Especially if that team isn't good enough defensively to hold the score down. I think Oregon is squarely on the bubble, especially if they lose to ASU. I feel like they should get in the tourney, but I worry about them. If you look at those things, their RPI has dropped into the 50's. Dangerous territory. Even if they get in, I don't see them getting past the 2nd rd. Nice to FINALLY be talking college ball again on this board. I guess having March Madness in full effect doesn't hurt. What do y'all think of Louisville in the NCAA tourney? Dangerous 4 or 5 seed that can do some damage? Team that peaked too early, and will flame out in round one or two? Just wondering....
jr--I have no personal investment either way with Bama--just calling it like I see it. If they beat Vandy but lose to Kentucky the next game that isn't going to help their RPI nor conference record. Now if they lose to Kentucky at the buzzer or something like that maybe the committee will weigh that a little, but I would not count on that. Getting blown out by both Florida and blown out at home to Kentucky and losing at home to Georgia has to hurt them. They also got the advantage of playing each of these best teams from their conference only once, and two of three at home--couldn't have asked for a better SEC conference schedule. Butler losing yesterday in their final didn't help Bama and other marginal bubble teams either. Butler has about the same RPI but a much better record. The committe may have to face to you put Bama in over other 30s RPI teams like Butler, S. Illinios or Zaga--I don't think they will unless Bama impresses this weekend. Also, if teams like Setan Hall, BC, Oregon, Minnesotta or St Louis do well in their turney that really hurts their cause to. I'll stick to my guns that if Bama doesn't beat Kentucky in their turney they are out. I don't think they can gripe if they are left out of the turney either, they would have gone go 0-4 against the top teams from their conference with only 1 of such games on the road.
Oh, I think Indiana is probably in, although I would love it if they weren't. Low 40s RPI, 18-11 record, being the 5th eligible Big 10 team, traditional Big 10 power brokers on the selection comittee, nostalgia from the program and the fact they were runner ups last year--probably gets them in. 1 Big 10 turney victory seals it for them. Louiseville could be dangerous to others (threat to #1 or #2 seeds) or themselves (potentiall 1st round upset fodder). I will wait on Sundays brakets to make such calls. March Madness is awesume, heading up to SLC for a Western opening round game--counting on Arizona being there.
Just because they probably won't beat Kentucky doesn't mean they will not make it to the tourney. You can't expect ANY team (besides maybe Arizona, Texas) to beat arguably the top team in the nation. Kentucky was perfect in the SEC. Their losses came against Virginia, Louisville, and Michigan State. Regardless if Bama goes 0-4 against the top teams can't necessarily hurt them. THAT'S WHY THEY ARE THE TOP TEAMS. But if you don't think Bama won't make it, I just want to clarify that you still think both or either Auburn and LSU will make it and Alabama not. Now I need to point out some things: Alabama's damage was not done early in the season; that's how they got to be ranked no. 1. The major downfall started against Utah, then a pathetic loss to, none other than Vandy. The non-conference schedule was VERY strong. I'mnot sure what it was ranked, but the coach requested a tough non-conference schedule because two years ago, when Bama didn't make the NCAA (but made it to the finals of the NIT), it was because their non-conference schedule was pathetic. Those wins against Xavier and Oklahoma will definitely help them get in. It doesn't matter if both LSU and Auburn have slightly better records (1 win difference); their schedule strength was much worse than Bama's, same with their RPI. Just because Auburn and LSU (and Colorado) are 8-8 and Alabama is 7-9 won't factor in to the selection committee. Many will agree that the SEC is the toughest conference. If Alabama had beaten one other team, say scored 2 more points to beat Vandy, then no one would doubt their chances. 8-8 is not less than 500 conference record, btw. It IS .500.
Cool- we'll just agree to disagree. I have no personal investment either. I just feel like since the committee has harped on teams for poor non-conference records the past couple of yrs, Bama will be rewarded for playing some tough teams. I think they should have taken advantage of playing in the weaker side of the SEC. Regardless, they didn't. As of right now, i think they are in. Right now, if the committee has to choose between Auburn and Bama, I think they take the Tide. Lots can change though, over the next couple of days. The Zags and Butler losing certainly can't make them feel good right now, although we'll have to see what happens to teams like Oregon, NC State, Minnesota, and so forth. Have fun in the SLC, Desert scar. My friend and I are heading down to San Antonio for the South Regionals. We are hoping Texas is put in the South, and can rightfully advance to the sweet 16. Whatever happens, though, it'll be a blast seeing a team advance to the final 4 in person. Oh yeah, I'm not a big Indiana fan myself. I'd kinda like to see them go back, though, just to see if they can reclaim some of that magic they found last year in the tourney run.
But then again if they are 0-4 against their conference's best with only one of those games on the road they don't have a great argument for being a threat in the NCAAs. I realize this, though Florida and Georgia (and maybe some others) at least took Kentucky to the end. Bama was blown out at home, they at a minimum need to take their next game untill the final seconds. LSU is in, period. They have a better overall and conference record than Bama. Like Bama their RPI is in the 30s, even if 8 slots lower. They also are one of two teams to beat the #1 team in the country and have finished strong. RPI does not weigh recent performance, so a difference between 5 or 10 slots in the RPI is not going to weigh that high with the committee. I agree Bama has a case over Auburn, but I simply don't think the committee will take a team with a lower conference ranking and leave out a team with a higher conference rating. Conference performance is the major factor they rely on, and Auburn's RPI is also in the 30s and in the same ballpark as as Bama's (6 off). It may suck, but the basket difference between an 8-8 conference record from a 7-9 conference record just really gets weighted highly here. Now if Auburns RPI was in the 50s, or they really had a cake schedule maybe the difference in the conference record is overlooked--but that is not the case here. When I said "damage" I meant Bama putting a hurting on other top schools, not the damage they did to themselves, which was post January. I agree Bama's nonconference schedule was tough, but they did poorly in conference, that is the problem. Further they were in the SEC, but like Auburn and LSU they were in the weak sister division--they only had to play UK, UF & UG once each, and only 1 time among them on the road. Yes, I had meant to say LSU, Auburn (and Indiana) are probably the only teams with non-winning records that will be in the turney via selection. Just my opinion, but Bama needs to beat UK to secure a spot, a win over Vandy and a nail biting loss versus UK will get a decent chance, anything less and I think they are cooked.
Well two last thoughts about Bama. Regardless if LSU beat the #1 team, Alabama WAS the # 1 team. That doesn't help any, but it sounded nice when I thought of saying it, so that's why I just typed it. Second thought is that if they played in the "stronger" division (east), I think they would have a better than 7-9 record. I just don't think anyone can say that one division is stronger than the other. Obviously, Alabama had lots of trouble against intradivision teams. My theory is that Alabama had a schedule like Georgia's, Kentucky's, or heck, even South Carolina's, they would be much healthier in the SEC. If they played Georgia, Kentucky, or Florida a second time each, you have to believe that Alabama would be bound to win at least 1 of those games. Just my opposite opinion. I adamently believe LSU won't make it though.
For what it's worth, I also feel like LSU is pretty certain to be in. As long as they take a game in the conference tourney, i think they are in great shape.
I retract my pervious comments regarding Alabama. They suck. 2 losses versus Vandy. They double suck. Well, I'll go out on a limb and say they'll win the NIT.
Yeah, I don't think Bama deserves to be there. However, I'll believe they're not there when i SEE they are not there. Especially with other bubble teams flaming out today, like Minnesota, Wyoming, DePaul. I still think Bama needs a LOT of help to get in, but it wouldn't be the most surprising thing in the world. Hell, Florida St got in several yrs ago with a 6-10 conference record, and some analysts are still convinced the Tide will get in. Once again, I guess we'll see come Sunday, but I definitely won't be sad if they don't make it. No one to blame but themselves.
Bama is gone, gone, gone. With teams like Colorado, Setan Hall, BC, Oreg, Indiana and St.L winning 1 or more of their turney games and Zaga, S. Ill, Butler losing in theirs, it was going to be hard for Bama even if they beat Vandy. They have no chance now, bank on it. Further, if we get a couple more upsets or real low seeds winning major conference turneys (e.g., USC/UCLA winning the Pac 10 easily could happen)--you are going to get some teams that looked in--like ASU, Zaga, Tenn, Auburn, Butler--start to sweat. I think NCState must win at least 1 game, maybe 2, or they are out as well. Ciph, I agree Indiana will be dangerous to a 1st or 2nd seed in the 2nd round--which is what I assume where they will be in line with unless they move further up by winning the Big 10 turney. I hate em, but they are a lot more dangerous than their record and recent stretch of Ls indicates.
