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[nbcsports/82games.com]Chucky getting some love from statistics

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by kingkow, Dec 4, 2006.

  1. kingkow

    kingkow Member

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    http://www.nbcsports.com/nba/501280/detail.html

    See the effiency graph via website please

    Making a Difference: On court vs. off court numbers
    By Roland Beech

    Special to NBCSports.com
    Posted: Nov.29, 2006, 2:17 pm EST

    It's early in the season but the storylines are already starting to take shape. At this juncture it's worthwhile to review the current on court versus off court numbers for players to see which guys are boosting their teams up, and likewise which guys are bringing them down!

    Why look at plus/minus numbers? Well, the easiest explanation is that just because a given player's stats in a game look nice does not mean the team fared well when he was on the court.

    The on court/off court stat is the simple logical next step on the straightforward concept of a "plus/minus" rating for a player. While the raw +/- tells you how the team has fared with a player on the court in the net points (points for minus points against) for the team, the on/off goes further to evaluate a player's overall team influence.

    Leaders in on/off rating (Through 11/27 games) On court = net points per 48 minutes for the team with the player Off court = net points per 48 minutes for the team with the player off the court

    Any discussion of plus/minus type data must also include some mention of the flaws to the raw read of these numbers. Most significantly the raw on/off ratings do not account for the other players on the court at the same time, both on the player's own team and the five opposing players.

    As you might expect, it can make a big difference if you're on the Cavaliers and typically get to play at the same time LeBron's in the game, or conversely if you're a center whose only minutes in a game are spent guarding Yao Ming!

    We do have adjusted ratings that take the other players into account, and indeed notable NBA analysts like Winston/Sagarin and Dan Rosenbaum have taken adjusted plus/minus numbers to seriously advanced levels. Still these shortcomings and additional issues like garbage time and so forth, the on/off numbers do give you a good indication of how well a player is fitting in with his current team.

    So it's no shock to find that the top 25 so far has a fair representation of NBA superstars (Nash, Wade, Nowitzki, Duncan, etc.). In fact it's Gilbert Arenas topping the charts at the moment, despite some very ugly shooting nights. The Wizards are roughly +3 points per 48 minutes with him on court, but a horrible -31 points per 48 when he's on the bench. Ouch!

    The guys who are perhaps more interesting though are the "unsung difference makers" and here you get the likes of the epitome of hardworkers in Houston's Chuck Hayes, who makes his limited minutes count. It's also worth mentioning that Ron Artest, who always makes his team play better when he's on court despite the headaches, his already showing huge on/off influence again at #5 in the league.

    The Warriors have to be very pleased with young Monta Ellis (and Andris Biedrins is just off the leaderboard at +14.3 on/off). Toronto's Euroleague star Anthony Parker is showing he knows how to play in the NBA too, with the 4-9 Raptors actually outscoring opponents when Parker is in the game.

    Finally the other name that leaps off the list at me is Steve Francis of the reeling 5-10 Knicks, who has an amazing +7.4 'on court' plus/minus per 48 minutes - the Knicks are +48 with him in the game, -74 with him on the bench.

    Hmmm, you say, what about the guys on the other end of the table?

    Now to be fair, a number of these players are in the extremes of the on/off issues camp: eg Anthony Johnson of the Mavs plays a lot of minutes without Nowitzki or Terry on the court and not surprisingly has a hard time matching the performance of the team when those guys are in the game.

    Likewise it's remarkable that the strong starting Utah Jazz place three starters in the bottom twenty-five. If you look closely though you'll see all three have positive "on court" plus/minus..so they are keeping the Jazz right there against the opposing starters, but the hidden story in Utah is that it's the second unit players who are really crushing opponents.

    Similarly Joe Johnson of the Hawks is squaring off against the opposing starters and often gets the best defender guarding him!

    Still we do find a number of the "players in the news" front and center: Ben Wallace is clearly not working out for the Bulls at this point (although Chicago has had a tough schedule so far) with the team -60 net points with Big Ben on court, +53 without him!

    Boris Diaw has been labeled as out of shape coming into the season and the Suns certainly have struggled at times with him in the game. That does appear to be coming around now though as Phoenix gets back on track.

    What list of "in turmoil players" though would be complete without Stephon Marbury who has the 8th worst on/off in the league right now. It should be said though that despite the public view, Marbury isn't always a negative influence, and actually had a tremendous on/off rating in 2004-05. It does appear though that Marbury along with Isiah Thomas is on shaky ground in the big apple.

    Finally Mo Peterson isn't enjoying life in Toronto right now, and has been suspected as the source for some very negative "anonymous" comments about his coach Sam Mitchell of late. If Mo wants to talk trash though, he would make a better case for more playing time if the team actually was even halfway respectable when he was in the game. We track the plus/minus numbers on a game by game basis, and give a player a plus/minus "Win" when the team is +1 or better with him in a game, a "Loss" when the team is -1 or worse with him in a specific game. Peterson's game by game WL? 0-10!

    The core strength of any "team influence" numbers is that they at some level account for all of the little things that are part of basketball - setting a screen, blocking out an opponent on the boards, denying the ball to a prolific scorer, taking a charge, making the smart pass - as well as big, big things that are currently unmeasured for the most part, such as playing strong shot defense!

    Some teams and coaches put more stock in these kind of things than others. The San Antonio Spurs for example have a reputation as being stats users…perhaps offering insight into how Francisco Elson has gone from playing over twenty minutes per game in the first few weeks to less than ten per game in the last week.

    Of course it's worth ending with the disclaimer: these numbers are based on very small samples at this point, are unadjusted by important factors which can significantly influence the perspective they provide, and particularly for players on new teams or with new coaches can be skewed by the "getting used to the new situation" curve.

    Nevertheless, basketball is a highly interactive team game, so a player's influence on team performance shouldn't be overlooked!

    Roland Beech is the founder of 82games.com and is a regular NBA contributor to NBCSports.com
     

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