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National Geographic: Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by basso, Mar 2, 2007.

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  1. basso

    basso Member
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    http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/02/070228-mars-warming.html

    [rquoter]Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says
    Kate Ravilious
    for National Geographic News
    February 28, 2007

    Simultaneous warming on Earth and Mars suggests that our planet's recent climate changes have a natural—and not a human- induced—cause, according to one scientist's controversial theory.

    Earth is currently experiencing rapid warming, which the vast majority of climate scientists says is due to humans pumping huge amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. (Get an overview: "Global Warming Fast Facts".)

    Mars, too, appears to be enjoying more mild and balmy temperatures.

    In 2005 data from NASA's Mars Global Surveyor and Odyssey missions revealed that the carbon dioxide "ice caps" near Mars's south pole had been diminishing for three summers in a row.

    Habibullo Abdussamatov, head of the St. Petersburg's Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory in Russia, says the Mars data is evidence that the current global warming on Earth is being caused by changes in the sun.

    "The long-term increase in solar irradiance is heating both Earth and Mars," he said.

    Solar Cycles

    Abdussamatov believes that changes in the sun's heat output can account for almost all the climate changes we see on both planets.

    Mars and Earth, for instance, have experienced periodic ice ages throughout their histories.

    "Man-made greenhouse warming has made a small contribution to the warming seen on Earth in recent years, but it cannot compete with the increase in solar irradiance," Abdussamatov said.

    By studying fluctuations in the warmth of the sun, Abdussamatov believes he can see a pattern that fits with the ups and downs in climate we see on Earth and Mars.

    Abdussamatov's work, however, has not been well received by other climate scientists.

    "His views are completely at odds with the mainstream scientific opinion," said Colin Wilson, a planetary physicist at England's Oxford University.

    "And they contradict the extensive evidence presented in the most recent IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] report." (Related: "Global Warming 'Very Likely' Caused by Humans, World Climate Experts Say" [February 2, 2007].)



    Amato Evan, a climate scientist at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, added that "the idea just isn't supported by the theory or by the observations."

    Planets' Wobbles

    The conventional theory is that climate changes on Mars can be explained primarily by small alterations in the planet's orbit and tilt, not by changes in the sun.

    "Wobbles in the orbit of Mars are the main cause of its climate change in the current era," Oxford's Wilson explained. (Related: "Don't Blame Sun for Global Warming, Study Says" [September 13, 2006].)

    All planets experience a few wobbles as they make their journey around the sun. Earth's wobbles are known as Milankovitch cycles and occur on time scales of between 20,000 and 100,000 years.

    These fluctuations change the tilt of Earth's axis and its distance from the sun and are thought to be responsible for the waxing and waning of ice ages on Earth.

    Mars and Earth wobble in different ways, and most scientists think it is pure coincidence that both planets are between ice ages right now.

    "Mars has no [large] moon, which makes its wobbles much larger, and hence the swings in climate are greater too," Wilson said.

    No Greenhouse

    Perhaps the biggest stumbling block in Abdussamatov's theory is his dismissal of the greenhouse effect, in which atmospheric gases such as carbon dioxide help keep heat trapped near the planet's surface.

    He claims that carbon dioxide has only a small influence on Earth's climate and virtually no influence on Mars.

    But "without the greenhouse effect there would be very little, if any, life on Earth, since our planet would pretty much be a big ball of ice," said Evan, of the University of Wisconsin.

    Most scientists now fear that the massive amount of carbon dioxide humans are pumping into the air will lead to a catastrophic rise in Earth's temperatures, dramatically raising sea levels as glaciers melt and leading to extreme weather worldwide.

    Abdussamatov remains contrarian, however, suggesting that the sun holds something quite different in store.

    "The solar irradiance began to drop in the 1990s, and a minimum will be reached by approximately 2040," Abdussamatov said. "It will cause a steep cooling of the climate on Earth in 15 to 20 years." [/rquoter]
     
    #1 basso, Mar 2, 2007
  2. rhester

    rhester Member

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    So Al Gore needs to get on this Mars problem, pronto. :D
     
    #2 rhester, Mar 2, 2007
  3. rimrocker

    rimrocker Member

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    I can't figure out why there's an article about this, much less why it deserves posting...
    Basso, I can't help but notice you often post junk like this without any comment. Are we to infer that you actually believe this? Or perhaps you want to believe it because it fits with your politics, but deep down you know it's crap and so don't want to expose yourself to ridicule... after all, you can always come back and say "I never said I supported that!" Or perhaps it's some other reason. Regardless, it's borderline pathetic.
     
    #3 rimrocker, Mar 2, 2007
  4. SamFisher

    SamFisher Member

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    No basso is just a fan of science, particularly the work of Habibullo Abdussamatov, any dovetailing with right wing GW denial views is purely coincidental, I can assure you.
     
    #4 SamFisher, Mar 2, 2007
  5. thegary

    thegary Member

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    this thread = huge smelly turd
     
    #5 thegary, Mar 2, 2007
  6. hotballa

    hotballa Contributing Member

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    I agree with your view about the article. In basso's defense, this was reported by National Geographic, not some right wing website. The ehadline is extremely misleading since the other half of the article is devoted to debunking the headline itself.
     
    #6 hotballa, Mar 2, 2007
  7. SamFisher

    SamFisher Member

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    Actually the headline is not that misleading, but basso's editorial modification of it is.
     
    #7 SamFisher, Mar 2, 2007
  8. Sishir Chang

    Sishir Chang Member

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    I believe global warming is happening and manmade causes are contributing but I wouldn't rule out there are natural phenomena also contributing to it. Whether global warming is mainly being caused by a natural phenomena that still shouldn't rule out cutting back on greenhouse gas emmissions and other manmade contributors. Think about it this way. If your yard is flooding do you turn on the sprinklers? Even if there is a natural cause its not in our interests to exacerbate it.
     
    #8 Sishir Chang, Mar 2, 2007
  9. hotballa

    hotballa Contributing Member

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    bah, I REALLY don't want to start defending him, but I didn't see any editorial modification.
     
    #9 hotballa, Mar 2, 2007
  10. Rashmon

    Rashmon Member

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    Purely fictional articles are just about as credible as some of the stuff basso posts...

    Critics Blast Al Gore's Documentary As 'Realistic'

    NEW YORK— The Al Gore-produced global-warming documentary An Inconvenient Truth is being panned by critics nationwide who claim the 90-plus minute environmental film is "too disturbingly realistic and well-researched to enjoy." "I found it difficult to suspend my disbelief in man-made climate change for the first half-hour—and utterly impossible after that—which makes for a movie-going experience that's far more educational than it is enjoyable," said New York Post film critic Skip Hack. "Gore's film overwhelms viewers with staggering amounts of scientific information until nothing about global warming is left to the imagination, and that's just not good entertainment. Two stars." Some critics have called the film's claims that sea levels could rise 20 feet somewhat sensationalistic, although most agree that this is not enough to save the film from being unwatchably factual.

    http://www.theonion.com/content/node/48972
     
    #10 Rashmon, Mar 2, 2007
  11. SamFisher

    SamFisher Member

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    Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says

    It goes from one guy's theory to omniscient statement, post basso modification:

    Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming

    Might have been an oversight, but i've seen this type of coincidence occur in the past.
     
    #11 SamFisher, Mar 2, 2007
  12. hotballa

    hotballa Contributing Member

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    wow sharp eye, I totally missed it. hmm, you do have a point actually.
     
    #12 hotballa, Mar 2, 2007
  13. Rashmon

    Rashmon Member

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    More egregiously, he puts the "National Geographic:" as the lead-in to imply that they endorse the finding, rather than that they are simply reporting on this crackpot's idea.
     
    #13 Rashmon, Mar 2, 2007
  14. KingCheetah

    KingCheetah Atomic Playboy
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    one scientist's controversial theory
     
    #14 KingCheetah, Mar 2, 2007
  15. Sishir Chang

    Sishir Chang Member

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    When it comes to Basso SamFisher has a very sharp eye.
     
    #15 Sishir Chang, Mar 2, 2007
  16. HayesStreet

    HayesStreet Member

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    Seems like some of you are just overreacting.

    There is nothing illegitimate about the headline. The article is from National Geographic. Putting National Geographic in the headline makes sense, especially considering how articles from non mainstream sources on this subject are automatically discounted. Putting 'Scientist says' in the title wouldn't change the implication one way or another. I didn't assume it was a directive from God or National Geographic anymore than you would assume National Geographic:The Planet Is Warming would mean that National Geographic had determined the planet is warming.

    That the article posts contradicting views is just good journalism, presenting the claim and those who dispute it. That hardly seems like something to castigate Basso for in this case.

    Considering how many people are so very interested in warming theory it is a bit perplexing how angry they get at anything that challenges current dogma.
     
    #16 HayesStreet, Mar 2, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 2, 2007
  17. basso

    basso Member
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    Sam, you really are hysterical- it was a long thread title, the article appeared in the national geographic. assuming you know how to click a link (and you've gotten this far so one must assume you can), which i handily suppled, the article's full title, as opposed to the thread title, is easily accessible.

    as to the content of the article being "illegitimate", last i checked, this is the "debate and discussion" forum- rather than looking into my motives for posting, why don't you discuss the article itself?

    as to my thoughts on global warming, i've posted them many times before. parts of the planet (tho certainly not all- see antarctica) certainly seem to be warming. whether this is part of some natural cycle, caused by humans, the sun, or the amount of hot air produced by our political process, is almost beside the point. the solutions,conserving energy, using alternate fuels, etc., have benefits beyond any effect they may have on a warming planet.

    until al and his hollywood friends start flying coach, driving priuses to awards ceremonies, and embrace nuclear power, i will continue to point our hypocrisy where it exists, and not their concern is just so much political posturing.
     
    #17 basso, Mar 2, 2007
  18. OddsOn

    OddsOn Member

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    Newsflash!!!

    Global warming occurs naturally, as does global cooling.

    Most of you are probably to young to remember the article in Time back in the 1970's that said the world was cooling and we would all be dead in 20 years.....lol

    Now its global warming? Please..they have done research to support the fact that the earth has gone through hundreds of warming and cooling cycles over its history. They took core samples from the ground and the ice caps and were able to determin the patterns. Hell the weather man can't even predict what the weather will be like tomorrow half the time....lol

    This whole idea is being perpetuated by the "mainstream" media and political elitist left as another in a long list of fear tactics.

    There are plenty of very prominent scientists who shoot down the lefts global warming idea. Fred Singer, Pat Michaels, William Gray, Max Mayfield etc.
     
    #18 OddsOn, Mar 2, 2007
  19. Sishir Chang

    Sishir Chang Member

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    As someone who is usually very quick to point out how slightly altered phrasing can paint a false impression you should be aware of how not including "Scientist says" can give the impression that this is a wider held view than just the view of one scientist.

    Usually you're the one who jumps on these sorts of things.
     
    #19 Sishir Chang, Mar 2, 2007
  20. SamFisher

    SamFisher Member

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    Like I said, it may have been an oversight. Now, tell me, did you find this item (dug up from a blog, I bet) because you agree with the good Dr.'s science, or because it supported your politics?

    I'll freely admit that i would be more likely to give credence to a view that accepts the consnesus view that GW is legit. But if the vast majority of scientists reversed course on GW (which would be the converse of the present state of affairs.), I would not hesitate to do the same. If the IPCC came out tomorrow and said - "you know what? We were wrong! scratch that!" and it was an honest change of mind, I'd be perfectly ok with it (and more than a bit relieved.)

    If this Dr. decides that his theory is flawed - would you reverse course with him or would you find the next GW denier and tout his work as legit?

    I believe it is the latter but correct me if I a m wrong.

    NY Times: Moon Landing Did Not Occur

    vs.

    NY Times: Moon Landing Did Not Occur, Detractors Insist

    Yeah there is no difference, either implied or in fact.

    :rolleyes:
     
    #20 SamFisher, Mar 2, 2007
    Last edited: Mar 2, 2007
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