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[MySynergySports] Star Wings: 09/10 Offensive Profiles

Discussion in 'NBA Dish' started by durvasa, Sep 13, 2010.

  1. durvasa

    durvasa Member

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    Mostly what I'd expect, though there are some surprising results. This is broken down by play type. In parentheses is % of plays of that play type, and the efficiency metric used is PPP (points scored per play). I estimate league average overall PPP to be ~0.96.

    If you register with mysynergy, you can see video clips for all plays, for any player.

    http://mysynergysports.com/


                   LeBron     Kobe     Durant    Carmelo    Wade
                                                                    
                                                                    
    Overall         1.07      0.96      1.03      0.97      0.99
                                                                    
                                                                    
                   (31.6%)   (29.9%)   (25.9%)   (36.5%)   (19.1%)
    Isolation       0.97      0.94      0.96      0.92      0.98
                                                                    
                                                                    
                   (19.2%)   (12.4%)   (8.3%)    (7.7%)    (28.8%)
    P&R (BH)        1.02      0.83      0.88      0.73      0.91
                                                                    
                                                                    
                   (6.3%)    (19.4%)   (5.7%)    (17.5%)   (6.0%)
    Post-Up         1.08      0.97      0.96      0.96      1.03
                                                                    
                                                                    
                   (1.1%)    (0.2%)    (1.2%)    (0.8%)    (0.0%)
    P&R (RM)        1.00      1.60      0.90      0.40      ---
                                                                    
                                                                    
                   (6.8%)    (9.5%)    (10.3%)   (9.6%)    (7.7%)
    Spot-Up         0.99      1.11      1.03      1.01      0.91
                                                                    
                                                                    
                   (2.0%)    (4.6%)    (16.5%)   (1.2%)    (8.0%)
    Off Screen      0.92      1.00      0.89      0.96      0.76
                                                                    
                                                                    
                   (0.9%)    (2.5%)    (2.8%)    (1.4%)    (3.3%) 
    Hand Off        0.77      0.93      1.06      0.69      0.99
                                                                    
                                                                    
                   (6.6%)    (4.8%)    (4.0%)    (4.2%)    (4.7%)
    Cut             1.53      1.07      1.40      1.60      1.29
                                                                    
                                                                    
                   (2.1%)    (1.9%)    (3.7%)    (5.6%)    (3.4%)
    Off Reb         1.64      1.29      1.20      1.12      1.36
                                                                    
                                                                    
                   (17.1%)   (9.0%)    (14.9%)   (9.6%)    (13.9%)
    Transition      1.26      1.17      1.34      1.28      1.21
                                                                    
                                                                    
                   (6.3%)    (5.8%)    (6.5%)    (5.7%)    (5.1%)
    Other Plays     0.68      0.55      0.93      0.67      0.73
                                                                    
     
    #1 durvasa, Sep 13, 2010
    Last edited: Sep 14, 2010
  2. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Member

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    How is PPP different from TS% and individual ORtg? Just curious.
     
  3. durvasa

    durvasa Member

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    PPP from mysynergy is not calculated from the boxscore, but rather from what is recorded on each play. So it is more precise. If you wanted to estimate it from the boxscore, it would be something like:

    PPP ~= PTS / (FGA + 0.44*FTA + TOV)

    In contrast:

    TS% = 0.5 * PTS / (FGA + 0.44*FTA)

    ORTG is much more complicated -- it includes assists and offensive rebounds into the equation, with a lot of team and league-wide factors also incorporated.
     
  4. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Member

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    Interesting. One thing I am wondering about is what turnovers count for overall PPP and PPP for each type of play. Does it only count when a guy is trying to score the ball himself? Does it count when the ball is turned over from a bad pass, from a 3 seconds call, or from an illegal screen?
     
  5. durvasa

    durvasa Member

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    I think it will count those as well. I noticed that for Other Plays category, TOV% was generally very high (e.g. for LeBron it was > 50%). Probably many of the off-the-ball turnovers fall under that.
     
  6. francis 4 prez

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    these numbers appear to be wrong as lebron is leading and kobe isn't. please contact mysynergy and have them rerun the numbers until they get them right.
     
  7. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Member

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    So, if a guy who does quite a bit of ball handling/passing but does not score many points, his PPP stat would likely be lower than a similar player who tries to score in a higher portion of the "plays" he uses.

    Take Steve Nash, for example, a lot of his 3.6 TO per game are from "bad passes." His estimated overall PPP will be something like 1333/(985+.44*225+295), which is 0.966. This undercounts how efficient Nash is because the numerator here is only points scored and does not account for the assists (and associated easy buckets) that Nash generated.

    Of course, a lot of it would fall into the "other" category, but quite a bit probably fall into the P/R (BH) category, too.
     
  8. durvasa

    durvasa Member

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    PPP for Nash's offensive plays was 0.98. I think you are right.

    Here is how they describe it:

    [rquoter]
    Synergy Stat Definitions

    • PPP – Points Per Play. A “Play” is always ended with a shot attempt, turnover or getting to the free throw line. PPP is the player’s total points, excluding technical free throws, divided by their total plays.

    ...

    Offense – Plays

    How we select the player - Synergy tracks the final play “type” in every offensive possession of the game. We always log the player responsible for the ending action which can be a shot attempt, turnover or drawing a foul that results in free throws.

    All Other Plays – This category includes any offensive plays that do not fit into any of the main play types. This category includes things like last second heaves from the back court and when a player is intentionally fouled and sent to the free throw line.

    [/rquoter]
     
  9. Shroopy2

    Shroopy2 Member

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    Are there ANY advanced stats that favor Kobe?
     
  10. durvasa

    durvasa Member

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    I think he hit more game winners last year than anyone else, by far. I could be mistaken, but he might have had more game winners than any player has ever had in one season.

    I guess game winners could be treated as an advanced stat.
     
  11. Aleron

    Aleron Member

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    lebron's advantage seems to come entirely from his transition game, which is about the most weakened stat when your opponents start being playoff series and not crappy teams.

    I've generally felt lebron was the more useful player, but that actually gives me pause to think that his high season and crappy post season performance indicates he's a trash killer.
     
  12. durvasa

    durvasa Member

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    Not true.

    LeBron: (1.07 - .171*1.26) / .829 = 1.03
    Kobe: (0.96 - .09*1.17) / .91 = 0.94
     
  13. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Member

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    Kobe's efficiency numbers looked a lot better in the few years before last. Probably having to do with that finger injury he was dealing with, might also be age/mileage catching up to him. But that team had enough talent around him to make up for whatever dropoff he might have suffered.
     
  14. t_mac1

    t_mac1 Member

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    more stats that claim lebron is the best? damn thought there wasn't anymore
     
  15. Octavianus

    Octavianus Member

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    How is 30 points 7 rebounds 8 assists a crappy playoff performance????
    Wow....
     
  16. goodbug

    goodbug Member

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    He's crappy in game 4 and 5, and managed triple double in game 5 with 35% shooting and 9 TO.

    You lose 4 games you lose a series, you can have 2 good games, 1 average and 3 bad. Ballhog the series to get 30/7/8 and still a loser.

     
  17. Mr. Clutch

    Mr. Clutch Member

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    Not only does LeBrnon dominate in PPP, he is also clearly the best passer of the 4.

    I'm curious, how do Kevin Martin and Aaron Brooks rate?
     
  18. vlaurelio

    vlaurelio Member

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    KM 1.01
    AB 0.95
     
  19. Steve_Francis_rules

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    Thanks for posting durvasa. Unfortunately, I know these stats must be wrong because they indicate that Lebron is more efficient in the post than Kobe. I have it on good authority from goodbug and the other Kobe fanboys that Kobe is the vastly superior player because of his post-up game. Thanks anyway.
     
  20. jevon3012

    jevon3012 Member

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                     LeBron     Kobe     Durant    Carmelo    Wade
                                                                    
                                                                    
    Quitting         1.95      0      0      0.5      0
                                                                    
     

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