My theory on McGrady's decline in scoring productivity...

i think it's just the decline in his physical ability (mainly foot speed and elevation). the mental aspect of his game hasn't changed much.

 

mental game is abysmal.

 

i think its more mental than anything the whole not advancing in the playoff really digs at him i think. the guys has had some injuries this season which has hurt obviously and still playing through one now so i think he is playing really cautious with it since the playoffs are approaching. he was a lot more aggressive in the games leading up to clinching a spot and then once the spot was clinched he relaxed.

i am not sure how much yao's injury weighs upon him. with yao i would be absolutely digusted at the team if they didnt make it past the first round regardless of who they play, thats how talented they would be with yao...without yao there is glaring hole and the team goes from being up there with the most talented to average talent at best. yao made tracy's game a lot easier. also with yao its hard to seem them making it past the first round (they can but it will all depend on matchups). if they dont its going to be another long season.

i am sure thats what kills him imagine playing basketball for 5-6 months and then only to not have a real decent shot when it matters...nothing is guaranteed for next year they could have other injuries or issues who knows. i just hope we have a full season with tracy and yao not having injuries.

i think the last three times tracy been to the playoffs he has lost in game 7s i believe (was his last playoff appearance in orlando the infamous 'good to be in second round' series?) that must take a toll knowing that especially when he has consistently shown that he is an amazing playoff performer to come up short 3 times in the biggest game.

honestly i think getting past the first round, even if they get swept in the second round will do wonders for tmac's mental focus for the upcoming seasons and he will be a different player.

 

The decline is physical and mental. He's not what he used to be, and he realizes that, so mentally he's not the same. The biggest reason for T-Mac's inability to shoot jumpers is his lack of elevation. He used to elevate so high he would shoot down at the basket. Now he can't elevate so naturally his line-drive has a much smaller chance of going in. The free-throws are a lack of mental focus. Plus his shooting form isn't exactly textbook. Once you lose your athleticism your fundamental flaws start to show.

 

That means he needs to practice his shot. All the great ones did that. Jordan was not as athletic in later years when he won the championships nor was hakeem. Look at amare, he has a better 15 foot shot than TMac which is kind of sad.

 

CONFIDENCE CONFIDENCE CONFIDENCE!

Confidence is an amazing thing. He needs to go back and watch himself dropping 62 in Orlando, stunning the Spurs with 13 in 35 and his first two games against the Mavs in 04-05 playoff series.

 

His lack of dunking is probably due both to the lost of some athletic abilities and to the fear of injury. But I think his lack of aggression is not as serious as some people make out to be. The more serious problem, imo, is his shot. In fact, if he had shot better, he would have more driving lanes available to him.

Lost of athleticism should not affect jump shooting and ft shooting. Shooting slumps are always mental. I disagree that his shooting form is not good. Shooting is mostly confidence and rhythm. He just has to get that resolved real soon or we will be toasted in the playoffs.

 

This game is all about confidence, Tracy just needs to get his before playoffs

 

This is it to a "T" Stoudamire is the perfect example to illustrate that all Tmac needs is lots of hours in gym working on his game. Tmac needs to strive to be the best player in the NBA, then you will see improvement in his game. His stats will also reflect it. Tmac said in a interview this year that it doesn't really bother him whether he gets out of the first round or not. This is not what you want to here from your superstar when the team is striving to win a championship.

 

In regards to his jump shot, I think it's mostly a mechanics issue. Hopefully between the end of the regular season and the start of the playoffs the coaches can work with him a little (sort of like they did with Rafer), and see if there is something that he has changed with his shot since coming back from the knee injury.

I don't think it's a loss of athleticism. I'm not saying he is 22 y/o Magic McGrady, but he still dunks with ease and gets to the rim when he is determined to do so. He has played alot more "athletically," than he did last year, when he RARELY dunked vs. this year where there have been plenty of highlight jams. But he was a better scorer last year because his jumper was on more often than this year.

As for the FT shooting, I agree, that is entirely mental. It's damn frustrating too.

 

But you saw him making 3 in a row last night

 

I think the OP is right but I think his confidence is low BECAUSE he has lost alot of his atheleticism. He's used to being able to do certain things that he can't do anymore.

He used to be able to rise up over any defender and get his shot off, now he sometimes gets blocked or passes off in mid-air to stop from getting blocked.

You have to take injuries into account though. In the 2002-03 season he had a whopping 30.3 PER. To put this in perspective Kobe only came close to this in the 06' season with a PER of 28 and Lebron is leading the league this year in his crazy season at only 29.1. PER isn't ever a fluke for someone who plays as much as these guys either. If you compare that PER to others he was on pace to become one of the top 10 players ever.

Something very odd happened the very next year though. Tmac's PER plummeted by 5 points in that same year he began dealing with his chronic back problems. His PER is now at 18.5, i can't find a player to ever have season as different as this without being either old or having delt with serious injuries.

In fact, if you look at other players who have had seasons that good (which is a very select few) there is only a 5 point drop off in PER when they started declining in their mid 30's, sustained a big injury, or in Jordan's case each time he retired.

 

I agree with the OP- a little of everything but mostly mental. Hopefully he can break that mental barrier and let loose, giving it all he's got in the playoffs. We certainly need it.

 

I did a little more research to prove my point about injuries.

The only people to ever have a higher PER than Tracy McGrady in a single season are Shaquile Oneal, Michael Jordan, David Robinson, and Wilt Chamberlain.

You don't drop off like that because of just heart, aggressiveness, or confidence. He was injured and has never recovered.

 

He is a rythym player.Hhe started off the season in the best shape he has been in since becoming a Rocket, was averaging 25PPG on 45% shooting pre knee injury, and he was giving us the best highlights we have seen from him since 2004-2005. Take him out a month, add other knick knack injuries, and of course added defensive pressure and his own fragile mentality that causes him to lose confidence, and voila...not shooting over 50% in 16 or 17 straight games.

Athletically, right now, he is as explosive as he has been since becoming a Rocket. That is NOT the problem. neither is his form or shot selection, which is the same as it's always been. It is simply rythym.

 

yes, his jump shot is a mechanic issue. but that issue resulted from loss of elevation imo. the arc is different.

ft is more of a concentration issue, but also has to do with the change in arc.