My take on the Rockets, Where we are, what we need, and how we get it

First off, I am real pleased with last year. I think 50 wins and a seven game play-off series for what is basically a work in progress is fantastic. I know we have the oldest team in the league, but so many of those players are new to us. I see us as a “young” (perhaps developing is better) team because we are just now getting our system in place. I have immense respect for JVG as a coach. I think last year he tried to work with what we had, He saw that as fundamentally flawed, got a golden opportunity to get Tmac, and is now trying to rebuild us. It that sense, I think we made huge process. The new system is in place. No system works unless the players buy into it. I think the existing players have bought into it. Those players who wouldn’t buy in are gone. And now any new players who come here will step into a working system and people who believe in that system. To me that is a huge step. You have to crawl before you can run. Additionally we got rid of some horrible long-term contracts. A long MoT horrible contract for shorter Baker and Norris horrible contracts was a great move that allows for flexibility in the future. I think the work CD (or JVG) did in this area is under-appreciated.

Next I want to run through our depth chart. But first I must preface that unlike many of you, I do not see our guards as the reason we lost to Dallas (a 58 win team I would like to point out). I think we lost because we did not know how to close out game three, not because of a 40-point slaughter in game seven. The only person on our team who has consistently been a winner is JVG. I am thinking the only players to have been past the first round are Deke and Mike James. I like Mike fine, but let’s face it; he got traded to the Pistons at the right time. He contributed, but was basically a hanger-oner (if that is a word) for the Pistons and a second stringer for us. Not exactly veteran leadership. Deke is better, but hasn’t been deep in the playoffs for five or six years now. Learning how to win takes time. I am very happy with our progress and trust JVG to impart that skill on our team.

Back to defending the guards. During the season, when we played a team that counts on guard scoring, I expected a win. In the grand scheme of things, our guards would contain their guards. Teams that scared me were the power forward-dominated teams. I accept that we were exposed in the playoffs, but I also can accept that it was just a bad day, that got way out of hand. I may be too loyal, but I don’t break up a 50-win team for that one game. However I do acknowledge problems and hope to improve. Again, react to game three, not game seven. So, on to the depth chart…

What we have:

Guards: For last year and again this year I am perfectly happy with Sura, Wesley, Barry and James (and sort of TMac). Personally, I see James as the weak link here, though I am not really sure why. I guess I did not think his defense was all it was cracked up to be and his offense was streaky. I think Sura brought us a toughness that nobody else brought. When he started playing for us is when we took off. (Though I’ll admit several changes occurred around the same time – Sura starts, Barry and Wesley additions, Howard gets the starting role and the minutes). But with hindsight in my favor, I am picking Sura as the catalyst of change, we started to play well when Sura began to play full time, and we began to slip when his back went out on him. I like Wesley a lot. Streaky shooter I’ll admit, but stays between his man and the basket. There is a reason JVG played him 40 minutes a game. We all want well-rounded and consistent players at each position. But assuming that is not available, solid defense and streaky offense is my preferred step down. You put enough of those together and the defense keeps you in the game until somebody gets hot. I love Barry off the bench, and I am satisfied with James as a sub. Who knows, a year or two under JVG may turn him into a legit starter. Also, I like the addition of Head. I don’t watch college ball, but from what I hear, he is a solid pick who will buy into what we are doing. Personally, I don’t expect much of a contribution from him, or any late first round pick, in his first year. But I hope he is a building block for the future. If we have injuries (likely) he may be able to step in and fill the breech. All that being said, I love a pass first point guard, but JVG seems to be making a handful of tweeners work. Just as complete flyer, I would not give up on Ward entirely. He may have some moments left in him. Of course, I would not pay what we are paying for him, but he may step up and surprise us. Health for him, as it is for our other starting guards, will be a critical issue.

Forwards: I think we need some work here. TMac is just a dream come true. What a trade that was. But he has no back up. I like Bowen and Padgett for their hustle and effort, but let’s face it; those are one-dimensional players who should be deep on the bench. If those guys have to play significant minutes, we are in trouble. Howard I think did a much better job for us than I realize as his loss clearly hurt us. But my prejudice is to a POWER forward. I like big bangers who can rebound and keep their big men out of the paint. I also feel our starting power forward should be our back up center. It brings continuity. To me, Otis Thorpe was perfect. He was not flashy, but kept a crop of really good power forwards in check, could put up twenty if needed, and crashed the boards. All that being said, if Howard is our back up forward, we are really strong at that position. I can live with him as starter, but would be thrilled to see him as a sub.

Center: I am a Yao Ming fan, but he still makes me nervous. I think he has come along way, and I love how JVG uses him. On the other hand, stupid fouls, stamina, soft and Rick Smits are all words that haunt me. But obviously Yao Ming is our center, and I am OK with that. It may just be that I want too much too fast. In fact, in spite of my whining, I am very satisfied with Yao Ming. And Deke is just a wet dream. He has to be the best back up center in the league. In fact Walton backing up Parish on the about 86 Celts is the only competition as a back up center that I can think of in my lifetime. I am really happy with our center position.

What we need:

Well in spite of my gushing about our depth chart, we pretty much need help at every position. In spite of my love for the guards, they are old. They were fine last year, and may be OK this year, but certainly not much more than that. Sura needs to be coming off of the bench due to his age and injury history. He can still make us gritty, but if he does it for 35 minutes a game, he won’t be able to give it to us for much longer. Wesley also is on his last legs. JVG had to play him about 40 minutes a game because there was nobody else who could give us what he gave us. I love both of those guys, but time is clearly limited for both. James and Head may be their replacements, but they have to prove themselves before I embrace that as a permanent solution. Forwards I pretty much addressed above, need a back up SF and a starting PF/backup C. And why a back up C, because Deke is an old man. He was everything I could ever hope for, but like many in our rotation, he is on the down side of his career. One more year is plausible; two has to be pushing it. Any of the three discussed could easily have an injury. Also we have to ask less of Tmac. Bringing the ball up, initiating the offense, being the offense and guarding the four is just too much. A better and more reliable supporting cast will make TMac that much better.

How do we fix this:

We have three tools to work with, the draft, trades and free agents. Let’s take them one at a time.

The draft. As stated earlier, I am optimistic about Head. But in the grand scheme of things, I see late first round draft picks as very hit and miss. If we get one solid rotation player out of five picks, I’ll be happy. I know a lot of you give more value to picks than I do, but considering where I expect to be drafting from I just can’t see counting on that as a solution. Considering our wide range of needs, we have to go for best player available. We can not draft for position until we have our entire rotation is close to set with good young players.

Trades. In spite of the trades the Rockets made last year, you have to give to get. And we just don’t have much to give. Assuming Tmac and Yao Ming are staying, nobody else has real value. Maybe James has some value, but if I were the GM of another team, I would not give up a starter for James. And I would not give up much for old men like Sura, Wesley, and Deke. Ditto for the younger but limited Padgett and Bowen. Baker, Ward, Mooch and Spoon have the type of contracts you have to pay people to take. Again, GREAT job of dumping our long contracts last year. Expiring contracts are useful, but nobody is going to trade a championship quality role player for expiring contracts. I keep reading Sura/Wesley/James (pick two) plus expiring contracts for_________. But again, if I were another team's GM, I would not give up much for that package. Would you? We could be in the right place at the right time and use expiring contracts to facilitate a three way, or find another player who says “trade me to Houston or I am walking”, but again, I wouldn’t bet the farm on this happening. Every team has bad contracts, and a lot of them are expiring every year. So who do we have to trade? Well nobody. Consequentially I do not see this as a viable avenue either.

Free agents. At last, something to work with. MLE and little LE are our main tools. Each year we can add one or two players. And here, unlike drafts, we can and should go for position. This is how we will have to build the team, one player a year. Maybe two if we get a good draft pick or the junior exemption plays out. The MLE is the league average salary, so we should be able to add an average player each year. Above average Tmac and Yao Ming plus six or seven average rotation players should do it. Additionally, the MLE can be a source of trade bait. Sign a player to MLE one year, then trade him a year or two later. I see the MLE as our major tool to improvement and I see us being a major player in the MLE market every year. Especially if we are the destination team we think we are. We have a good chance to get the cream of the MLE crop. Some of you say that Les is cheap, but I disagree. I think he will pay if it is what we need. I don’t think he will throw big bucks just because. For example, I don’t think he will go into luxury tax territory for a 40-win team. But I think he will, without hesitation, for a contending team. I think he has been a very good owner (though I still prefer the Summit to the Toyota Center).

Here is how I see the annual progress from a bad team to a championship contender.
First you stop sucking. We never seemed to be that bad.
Second you contend for the playoffs. Check, 2003
Third year, you make the playoffs, but are first round fodder. Check, 2004
Fourth year you challenge in the playoffs, but are overmatched in the end. Check , 2005
Then win in the first round, but get knocked out in the second. I’m looking forward to 2006.
Second round winner.
Once you start winning in the second round, you are in the conference finals and anything can happen from there. Great teams become champions; good teams will wait for next year.

So to sum up my rambling. We have a legitimate 50-win team. We will get better one player a year, mostly through free agency. We should be competing for the championship in about three years. In spite of our obvious age, we have a young team (core). It will be a great ride, enjoy it.

As a whole, I enjoy your opinions. This is mine. If you read this far, thanks for letting me prattle. I can’t explain it, but I feel good for having done it. Comments on how you think we will build our team are appreciated.

 

It was not intentional, but I do not see Badiane in the NBA ever. I think the jump from minor euro-league role player to championship rotation is just too wide. Hope I am wrong.

Span, I'm not sure what to think. I think he has NBA talent, but not sure at waht level. Does he want to be a big fish in a small pond, and be well paid I might add. Or does he give that up to be on the Rockets bench and see if he can move up? I assume all elite athletes want to compete at the highest level, but since he is not playing in our summer league I don't know what to think.

 

Bob, I agree. I have always thought the perfect rotation was three deep.

A point guard who offers a change of pace from the starter. Usually calm down, run plays and don't make mistakes.

A 2/3 swing player. May be alock down defensive one on one stopper. Try to shut down their hot shooter.

And a big who covers PF and C. That is part of the reason I like a PF who can double for back up center.