I am sorry for taking so long to post this. Quite frankly, I was rather depressed after the loss to the Mavericks and it has taken me a few days to recover. But this morning, I finally updated my simulator's code for the playoffs and here are the results. Code: Home HWin H4 H5 H6 H7 A7 A6 A5 A4 AWin Away ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== Lakers 81.0 16.3 27.9 18.8 18.0 6.7 7.7 3.1 1.5 19.0 Jazz Blazers 61.5 7.9 18.3 15.4 19.8 11.5 15.1 7.7 4.2 38.5 Rockets Nuggets 64.7 8.9 19.7 16.1 20.0 10.9 14.0 6.9 3.6 35.3 Hornets Spurs 64.2 8.7 19.5 16.0 19.9 11.0 14.1 7.0 3.7 35.8 Mavericks Cavaliers 94.0 30.9 35.2 17.1 10.8 2.4 2.4 0.8 0.3 6.0 Pistons Hawks 61.4 7.9 18.3 15.4 19.8 11.5 15.2 7.7 4.2 38.6 Heat Celtics 90.5 25.1 33.4 18.5 13.7 3.7 3.9 1.4 0.6 9.5 Bulls Magic 87.1 21.1 31.4 18.9 15.6 4.8 5.2 2.0 0.9 12.9 76ers As you can see, not getting home court in the first round really hurt the Rockets. If we can steal tonight's game, though, our situation improves a lot. Note that this simulator is not aware of the injuries to KG and Ginobili. In future posts, I will update the probabilities and maybe give breakdowns for the future rounds. Enjoy!
Looking at the chance for a Rockets sweep, it takes me back to the Rockets sweeping Orlando without the home court advantage. Anyone betting on that would have made a fortune.
Thanks for doing this. The Rockets probably won't be favored in any series they participate in this playoff season from a strictly numbers standpoint, so this thread unfortunately won't be popular.
Includes resutls from April 19 Code: Home HWin H4 H5 H6 H7 A7 A6 A5 A4 AWin Away ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== Lakers 87.7 22.4 32.3 17.9 15.2 5.7 5.1 1.5 0.0 12.3 Jazz Blazers 41.7 0.0 7.9 12.9 20.9 12.1 21.1 13.8 11.3 58.3 Rockets Nuggets 75.6 13.7 25.7 17.3 18.9 10.3 10.5 3.6 0.0 24.4 Hornets Spurs 44.2 0.0 8.7 13.8 21.7 11.9 20.4 13.0 10.4 55.8 Mavericks Cavaliers 96.4 37.7 36.1 14.5 8.1 1.8 1.4 0.3 0.0 3.6 Pistons Hawks 72.9 12.5 24.3 16.9 19.3 11.2 11.7 4.2 0.0 27.1 Heat Celtics 76.9 0.0 25.1 26.8 25.0 6.7 9.3 4.3 2.8 23.1 Bulls Magic 71.5 0.0 21.1 24.7 25.6 7.9 11.4 5.5 3.7 28.5 76ers What a tremendous effort by the Rockets! With their wins, the Rockets and Mavs are now the favorites. Enjoy!
Why? It is interesting to have a glimpse of those simulation. And We should appreciate what BigBigRed has done for us. just have fun with those stuff.
Hard to guage probabilities when they are not based upon any real tangibile math, but rather a lot of supposition. Still an interesting read. DD
Includes the Spurs and Celtics wins last night. Code: Home HWin H4 H5 H6 H7 A7 A6 A5 A4 AWin Away ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== Lakers 87.7 22.4 32.3 17.9 15.2 5.7 5.1 1.5 0.0 12.3 Jazz Blazers 41.7 0.0 7.9 12.9 20.9 12.1 21.1 13.8 11.3 58.3 Rockets Nuggets 75.6 13.7 25.7 17.3 18.9 10.3 10.5 3.6 0.0 24.4 Hornets Spurs 56.2 0.0 13.5 18.0 24.6 13.5 19.9 10.4 0.0 43.8 Mavericks Cavaliers 96.4 37.7 36.1 14.5 8.1 1.8 1.4 0.3 0.0 3.6 Pistons Hawks 72.9 12.5 24.3 16.9 19.3 11.2 11.7 4.2 0.0 27.1 Heat Celtics 83.5 0.0 31.8 28.6 23.2 6.2 7.4 2.8 0.0 16.5 Bulls Magic 71.5 0.0 21.1 24.7 25.6 7.9 11.4 5.5 3.7 28.5 76ers When I get time, I'll write the code for the rest of the post-season. Enjoy and go Rockets!
I find it interesting that the Celtics and Spurs are both favored to win the series again after their home wins last night. I would assume that the odds wouldn't change much after game 1 victories for the road team since it's assumed that the home team would at least get a split in the first two games. I wonder what the Rockets-Blazers probabilities would be if the Blazers were to win tonight. Would the odds swing once again to their favor even though the Rockets would have taken HCA away from them?
Going off what Fyreball said, could you post the Rockets' odds for situations like "if the Rockets win their next game" or "if the Rockets lose their next game"?
A game 2 win vs. loss is basically driver seat vs. coin flip Code: Home HWin H4 H5 H6 H7 A7 A6 A5 A4 AWin Away ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== Blazers 20.8 0.0 0.0 5.6 15.2 8.8 21.4 18.1 30.9 79.2 Rockets Blazers 53.8 0.0 12.5 17.1 24.1 14.0 20.9 11.3 0.0 46.2 Rockets
Agreed. Especially when you consider that Portland has shown no ability to win on our floor. I think a lot was taken for granted that during the regular season Portland beat us on a miracle 31 footer that A was a tough shot in and of itself, and B took about 5 tenths of a second longer than was on the clock. So the record indicated both teams winning at home and losing on the road. If the rest of the series followed suit of both teams winning the home games its Rockets in 6. There really should not be a deviation from that until the Blazers win one in Houston. I think the simulator places too much emphasis on 54-28 vs 53-29.
At playoff level, especial this 4-5 seed series, every game is pretty much a random problem. I'd say 50% odds for each team to win every single game is the best guess. Moreover, the probability here is absolutely unconditional. Like a coin flip, you may already have tails for nine times, it doesn't mean you have 90% probability to get a head on the next flip (it is still 50-50). The same for the playoff games. I'd say rockets win the series, but they are probably going to lose tonight.
Results include the Lakers' win (2-0) over the Jazz, Portland's win (1-1) over the Rockets and the Cav's win (2-0) over the Pistons. Code: Home HWin H4 H5 H6 H7 A7 A6 A5 A4 AWin Away ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== Lakers 93.4 30.7 36.0 15.5 11.2 4.2 2.4 0.0 0.0 6.6 Jazz Blazers 53.8 0.0 12.5 17.1 24.1 14.0 20.9 11.3 0.0 46.2 Rockets Nuggets 75.6 13.7 25.7 17.3 18.9 10.3 10.5 3.6 0.0 24.4 Hornets Spurs 56.2 0.0 13.5 18.0 24.6 13.5 19.9 10.4 0.0 43.8 Mavericks Cavaliers 98.2 46.0 35.8 11.1 5.4 1.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 1.8 Pistons Hawks 72.9 12.5 24.3 16.9 19.3 11.2 11.7 4.2 0.0 27.1 Heat Celtics 83.5 0.0 31.8 28.6 23.2 6.2 7.4 2.8 0.0 16.5 Bulls Magic 71.5 0.0 21.1 24.7 25.6 7.9 11.4 5.5 3.7 28.5 76ers Some have questioned why the Blazers are slightly favored even though the Rockets have home court advantage. The model ranks the best teams in the West in order as: Lakers, Blazers, Rockets and the gap between the Blazers and the Rockets is significant. Enjoy as usual!
To me your model makes sense. If the Rockets don't make significant adjustments, they will drop one of the next two games and give back home court advantage.
Includes Magic (1-1) win over 76ers, Heat (1-1) win over Hawks and Nuggets (2-0) win over Hornets. Code: Home HWin H4 H5 H6 H7 A7 A6 A5 A4 AWin Away ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== Lakers 93.4 30.7 36.0 15.5 11.2 4.2 2.4 0.0 0.0 6.6 Jazz Blazers 53.8 0.0 12.5 17.1 24.1 14.0 20.9 11.3 0.0 46.2 Rockets Nuggets 85.9 21.2 32.2 16.7 15.8 8.6 5.5 0.0 0.0 14.1 Hornets Spurs 56.2 0.0 13.5 18.0 24.6 13.5 19.9 10.4 0.0 43.8 Mavericks Cavaliers 98.2 46.0 35.8 11.1 5.4 1.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 1.8 Pistons Hawks 53.6 0.0 12.5 17.1 24.1 14.0 21.0 11.4 0.0 46.4 Heat Celtics 83.5 0.0 31.8 28.6 23.2 6.2 7.4 2.8 0.0 16.5 Bulls Magic 79.4 0.0 27.6 27.2 24.6 7.6 9.3 3.7 0.0 20.6 76ers Enjoy!
