My Annual Draft Essay

Real Draft Versus Media Hype

1. Most franchise brokers are as clever (well, almost as clever heh, heh) as CD and the backroom boys. In other words, there are few surprises out there when comes to comparing individual team evaluations of any prospective talent.

2. How a player is assessed in terms of fitting a particular team’s need or role is the key to drafting a spanking new NBA baller. How he would handle the “adjustment phase” to the pros and if he would be able to produce for the role he will be assigned is the larger question.

3. In the past three months the “top five” designation has grown to about 43 “sure things”. If we were to draft today, the number of players touted as “lottery bound” would deplete the registered draft spots tenfold. Don’t read everything you want to believe, and don’t believe everything you want to read.

4. Following a workout all spokespersons will go out of their way NOT to say anything bad about a perspective draftee. As a matter of fact, even if the guy was as horribly inefficient as their aging towel boy, they would still get a healthy “ … he really surprised us out there today … ” comment for the media.

5. Every team has contingency plans. A short-list to accompany their long list. Alternatives in place.

The Rocket Outlook

A. They do use misdirection when looking at a prospective draftee, especially the obscure or less media focused player. But not as much as everyone is so willing to believe. See #1 above.

B. Their “triage and chaff” sessions where ALL information on a perspective draftee is reviewed by the entire "project" staff is not a single session. Sometimes a team’s need will change overnight, or a potential player may be reconsidered or dropped due to a change in his status. Such review sessions take place anytime there is a significant change. See #2 above.

C. The list of players that the Rockets want will be narrowed down to about two or three guys per pick. There are always some surprises, but generally the player and draft position will be within a couple of picks. See #3 above.

D. CD frequently uses understatement to hype a player’s performance, and overstatement to cover flaws. As a general manager he is not alone in this practice. What is always surprising is the media’s ( and fan's) gullibility. See #4 above.

E. By now the Rockets know exactly who they DON'T want to draft. And, there are few questions left as to the overall assessment of a few player’s as to their situiational playing ability. See #5 above.


As ardent fans and eager draft day spectators I challenge you to fully expect a draft day move that will involve the Rockets and the early First Round. They will not have three First Round picks. They will get who they want. They will focus on proven ability and not media hype.

Guys to Watch with a Week to Go

L. Woods: His stock was initially quite high. It fell amid all the media microscopic (“in depth analysis”) attention that had him as being too soft, with a limited shot and a questionable lagging/lazy on again-off again game effort. His stock has ridden a whole lot lately, both by his hard summer work and some (actually,all) excellent workouts with a variety of teams. He has hit the weights, his shot is well above average(consistently) and he showed some great defense performances. I fully expect him to go earlier (a whole lot earlier) than anyone anticipates.

P. Gasol: He was lost in the shuffle early when the media’s draft stories were getting sparse and stale. He rose meteorically and everyone jumped the bandwagon. But now the real question is …. Will drafting him mean we have to wait a year? Gasol and his agent may have forgotten an age-old agents axiom. “Learn to use leverage properly. Don’t be coy and tease the owners. They have no mercy, they own the media and they can send your boy to Sports Siberia if you piss them off ….” He is close to dropping ten spots from his projected spot. Time for Gasol to go to the media and say, “I will play next year for whomever drafts me. My contract will NOT be a problem.” On the flip side, some teams that can afford to wait a year may chance his contract. Unfortunately for Gasol that is a very small portion of the NBA franchises, as most teams tend to think they are only a zip baller away from being a championship contending team.

K. Brown: He may be the most BBall talent wrapped into a high schooler out there. He is not raw, but he is far, far from being refined. He will need some adjustment. he will need patience. However, every team that worked him were amazed. I mean amazed. He has skill in places that don’t have names yet. This guy may jump to the front, especially if Washington unloads it’s pick. Curry, Griffin and a whole lot of others that are just as heralded may be surprised with that first announcement.

S. Battier: I know, I know, same old names keep being banged around. But Battier is another guy who may leap all over some very credible draftees in front of him. His presence on the court and his savvy to the game have moved him way up on a lot of General Managers’ minds. His workouts sometimes turned into a clear division between "what Battier did" and "what the others will have to be taught". He is instant “relaxed” ball control. He has tons of poise. He just may be the best candidate for “Rookie of the Year” in the top twenty, and that's before he even steps on the court. He will get a bucketful of playtime this first year, and he will have the ball in his hands all season long. And so as with Kwame, if Shane Battier moves way up the scale, you can expect to see some highly rated talent dropping into some surprised teams’laps.

O.Cook I can't see this guy getting out of the First Round. I know Tinsley gets most of the ink, but this fireball Omar can handle a round hide. he is small, has a ample supply of flash and has multi talents. On the heels of AI showing everyone your height doesn't limit the size of your heart or your ability may help Cook jump several spots. He will be pursued by the Eastern teams in the north (NY/NJ/Bos/Char/Wash) with a passion. His St John roots means lots of media attention if he ends up near the tri-state area.




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Some thoughts .....

HP: If they move up to (or beyond) the #6 spot they will take the best available PF/C at that point. No Doubt. However, I think there will be some surprises at the 1 to 6 seedings and some PF/C will move down closer but not to the #13. Despite that, yeah ... I'll still take your bet. Personally, I think Langhi will be rostered next season, but I also think they need to move someone else with/ahead of him. If the above scenario plays out (we move to the six) and we keep the #23 (or more doubtfully #18) we will draft a center and the #23 is where we'll will find an acceptable SF to platoon with Langhi. Also, expect Bull to play some 3 next year too.

Dude: I don't like Bradley. Sorry, that would be a mistake. Haywood is a larger question mark for me in a lot of ways. I don't think we gain anything by drafting him at #13. Radman I would take at #13. So I guess you and I are on the same wavelength with SF over PF/C.

Tacoma: I guess I should have said that we will not "use" all three picks. You are right, we may be forced to barter under the table for a higher pick. But we will NOT be drafting all three "for" ourselves as you stated. Man, that sounds even more complicated a statement ... but,you know what I mean.

Holmes: "Obviously, if we were able to get a Brown, Battier, Griffin or Richardson, we ought to move up to get one of them at forward." Unless something drastically happens we will miss any chance at Brown, Griffin, Battier. Richardson may be available at a respectable 6-10 spot, only because of the teams drafting before then, and NOT because of any lack of talent on his part. You're right drafting a premiere center is more important to us than anything, but still the calibre of center we need to move ahead, in my mind will not likely they will be around past the 10.

As far as Diop goes, I don't think CD and the boys are as sold on a highschool center as fully as some team managements have been. It is not that he is not an excellent talent ... not that he doesn't have great potential, and he has shown some great drive and agressiveness in his workouts (when he gets to them) ... it's just that he would need a lot more (including TIME) than what they could expect from someone like Marc Jackson, La Frentz etc who already can handle some pivot duties and who they feel they can get with a more assured outcome. I am not saying they wouldn't take him if available, I think they would wait for him to hit their number. They definitely would not trade up to target Diop unless he was one pick away or something. I had a bit of insight into CD thinking a while back (couple of weeks) and the impression I got was he wants all of these media proclaimed "highly rated players" to be promoted on up the scale so that some jewels get pushed down to them or close to them.

Pick Points

* Regardless of all the media hyperbole, Washington does not want their number one pick this year. They want another first rounder for next draft(they are after J Williams), they want to get a couple picks out of this first round for their number one(Boston's 10&11 ?). They need to move some contracts.

* New Jersey was susceptible for a trade early on, and Houston was at the forfront of that. The Clips talked a hard luck story initially and that has cooled. they now are looking at either Curry or brown and maybe not in that order. Vancover will do almost anything to unload contracts, and have shown a willingness to use SAR in a deal. I think they are even more susceptible now than either New Jersey or the Clips.

* Incidentally IMHO if Brown is gone by the Clips #2 pick they may sell it outright, then and there to the best bidder. That highest bidder will likely be next top five teams. A #2 for a # 7, and "player to be named later" for instance. The only caveat to this wiould be if they are convinced Curry will could make a difference this coming season. I don't think they are presently convinced of that.

* Tyson Chandler will not make it past Golden State #5.

* Atlanta will take the best available forward and if for some reason even if Griffin is there ..... don't be surprised if Battier gets the nod instead. The Hawks need control and a steady hand at the #3. They get that with Battier. Out of the gate. (Well almost out of the gate.)

* Very recently Houston has talked to Boston seriously about moving (incrementaly anyway) up a couple of spots. Watch for a move on draft day,especially if Woods,Diop or White are still around at 10-11.


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[This message has been edited by oeilpere (edited June 19, 2001).]

 

Roxie: If the Rockets got Loren Woods and TM out of #13 and #23 with #18 traded away. That would be the ultimate draft scenario.

Chuckster: Well Ken has worked himself (some use the terms NOT WORKED) out of a top berth, Steven Hunter has worked himself past him and still climbing. Mike Bradley is working to prove his worth (he hasn’t convinced me) but Troy Murphy will be ahead of him and frankly I like Alabaman Alvin Jones a whole lot in the later part of the draft. There are some surprises to be had there. I can’t quite figure out why Ken Johnson has been so unimpressive lately. Unfortunately for him, every team that would be interested in him has noticed it too.


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Slammer: Yeah big buzz with them up on Battier, but you gotta think MJ would trade away the one and still have a reasonable crack at Battier. That is if they are high on him as the media is putting out. Let me tell you all something .... Battier Is Very Impressive during workouts. He looks like an NBA'er. It does not surprise me he is still getting nods from the #1,#2,#3 folks.

Rhester: White will show up before Johnson on draft day. Zach Randolph may jump ahead of some big name forwards too.

RichyRich: Not ranked, just available. Woods and Diop will be the top two. Hunter is showing some promise, but the jewel may be Alvin Jones at a later and more appropriate slot(#18 - #23).

1. Loren Woods - yep
2. Sagana Diop - yep
3. Steven Hunter - yep, farther down
4. Alvin Jones - oh yeah,probably much farther down
5. Brendan Haywood - I hope he is not, that would mean someone fell for him and pushed someone else up to us.
6. Ken Johnson - yep

Wizbangs
Clips
Hawks
Bulls
Warriors
Grizz

Except for maybe Woods not one of these guys has a hope to fill any of these teams immediate needs.

I contend that if we happen to trade and get a top six spot and Woods is available, we will take him. If not they may look hard at Diop but just as likely completely reverse themselves and take best available SF.

If they don't take a pivot man early (by pick swap or proxy pick), they will look hard at Alvin in a later spot if he is available. Frankly, I think he will slip through several team's fingers. RT loves Alabama big men, they wouldn't be able to pass him up.



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TMO: His stock is steady, not falling or rising.

If for any reason, we were to keep all three picks, which I doubt, he may be slotted for #23. If we move our picks and get a center up in single digits, write him in at #23.

If a premiere center falls to us by any stretch iof the imagination,we take him as an afterthought.

He also can may be picked up at the very late first or very early second. RT loves making those seemingly inconsequential moves into the second round.

But make no mistake, in the final analysis he is not a big priority to us on Draft day. A nice pickup and apparently a comfortable fit. But that is all presently. Regardless of who's friend he happens to be. He will either fall naturally into our slot, or he will be bargained for later in the second round. We will be making no great target moves to acquire him earlier than #23 or maybe not even at #23 if we miss the draftees we have have focused on.

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Man that is one offer that I have heard and from some solid people too. It makes sense for all concerned. Brown and next year's JW makes it all so plausible.



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