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MVP Shouldn’t Even be a Discussion

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Reeko, Mar 1, 2019.

  1. Reeko

    Reeko Secretary of Defense for the Jabari Tribe
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    Morey better not go on this fool’s show again...or if he does, he better check this clown

    Harden’s offends>>>PG’s offense+defense
     
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  2. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    And that big comeback win (with game-winner) vs DAL the game before the ORL game.

    but lulz at ORL being a 23 win team, DAL a 33 win team and Den a 40 win team that year. Harden has those wins this year vs top teams.
     
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  3. Swiss Roll

    Swiss Roll Member

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    Here's a great visualization using Total Points Added from NBA Math:

    [​IMG]

    Giannis is about a +215 on offense and defense, combining for +430 overall.

    Harden's offense alone is well past +450, while staying above 0 on defense.
     
  4. Deuce

    Deuce Context & Nuance

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    Exactly! When those comebacks happened no one thought to question "Why is Westbrook's team LOSING to these lottery teams IN THE FIRST PLACE?"

    So he gets credit for barely winning against lottery teams? .......but....but.....IT LOOKED GOOD! Last second shot!
     
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  5. Deuce

    Deuce Context & Nuance

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    In other words:
    Giannis: Good offense - Good defense
    Harden: Elite/HISTORIC offense - average defense.

    The Harden HISTORIC element should be the difference maker
     
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  6. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    on a per Possession basis, Harden is still scoring 10 points more per 100. Bucks are playing significantly faster ball.

    Sure, Giannis contributes to that Pace a lot by how brilliant he is going downhill (even in set offense with Bud's spacing plays), but his reliance on going downhill in a long-stride bullrush manner is also be revealed now as an unreliable GoTo in the 4th Q. Teams are taking that away. He's having trouble closing with that offense and he surely can’t launch a comeback, because teams can foul him, too.

    Giannis will be the first MVP that I can remember who doesn't have a reliable GoTo shot/play or truly dominant low-post play (measured by ability to beat double teams in low post).
     
    #186 heypartner, Mar 5, 2019
    Last edited: Mar 5, 2019
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  7. Swiss Roll

    Swiss Roll Member

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    Giannis' "Good" offense is still #6, and his defense is #1 in the NBA, you're severely underselling him lmao.

    Harden's offense is Genesis 1:4 "Good".

    It just shows that offense impacts the game far more than defense can, better offense beats good defense every time.
     
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  8. Streets 01

    Streets 01 Member

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    Didn’t answer my question. Should all “church league” players not be able to win MVP because they play in the East? I mean this is the hill many are choosing to die on.

    To answer your question (I’m not ducking), I think it all needs to be taken into consideration. Stats, wins, narrative, help, etc. all of it. Yes, Harden plays tougher competition and has done so with more inconsistent lineups. He is also posting historical numbers. Facts. Those are the arguments I can get behind. But an offense centered around Giannis also has posted a better record against “real NBA competition” while the Rockets haven’t done as well in “church league”. Those are also facts. Both have arguments. To act like only Harden has any claim to the award and changing the reasons to support your guy each year is no different than the voters we chastise. Both have a solid claim to the award. Period.
     
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  9. topfive

    topfive CF OG

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    My feelings about this year's MVP can be summed up in two points:

    1. Harden absolutely deserves it if you're taking the "most valuable" part literally, although Giannis should definitely be in the discussion.

    2. If Harden hadn't won it last year, he'd be an absolute LOCK to win it this year. That same thing makes him a likely 2nd-place finisher this year unless something unexpected happens.
     
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  10. HP3

    HP3 Member

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    Woah woah calm down friend haha. No I'm not. I think Harden is much better than Giannnis. Im just saying that his team has the best record in the league and that matters.

    Well I mean, I think the East actually has some pretty good teams this year(not as good as the west of course) but having the best record in the leauge as well the best net rating in the leauge certainly matters to MVP voters.
     
  11. sirbaihu

    sirbaihu Member

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    Sure, both guys have a solid claim. I happen to think the guy on the Rockets is more valuable. Would you trade Harden for Giannis?

    To answer your question, sure, "church league" guys can win it sometimes. I just see it as kinda like the NBA Finals: yeah, there's always someone at the top of the East, but they usually lose in the finals. So, if the Bucks (or the East) don't win it all, does that mean they're not the best team? Maybe it'll be too late for voting then, but I guess the "best team" standard would look even more meaningless in that case.

    Anyone think the Bucks are going to win it all?
     
  12. Deuce

    Deuce Context & Nuance

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    Yeah, I am underselling him. :p
     
  13. durvasa

    durvasa (he/him/his)
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    It's also worth pointing out that in MJ's first MVP year, his stats were way beyond the competition whether you slice it up as per-minute, per-game, or totals for the season, and moreover he also happened to be voted DPOY.

    Can't really compare what Harden is doing this year to Jordan's 1988 season.
     
  14. sirbaihu

    sirbaihu Member

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    Giannis has played less minutes than any MVP in the past 30 years (I did not check farther).
    The minutes are interesting also because everyone claims Harden is being overworked. I've sorted the minutes/game of the past 30 MVP's plus Giannis and James this year:

    2001: AI 42.0
    1994: Hakeem 41.0
    2002: Duncan 40.6
    2000: Shaq 40.0
    2004: KG 39.4
    2003: Duncan 39.3
    2010: LBJ 39.0
    2008: Kobe 38.9
    1998: MJ 38.8
    1992: MJ 38.8
    1995: Robinson 38.0
    2013: LBJ 37.9
    2009: LBJ 37.7
    1996: MJ 37.7
    1993: Barkley 37.6
    2019: Harden 37.5
    2012: LBJ 37.5
    1989: Magic 37.5
    2011: Rose 37.4
    1999: Malone 37.4
    1990: Magic 37.2
    1991: MJ 37.0
    1997: Malone 36.6
    2007: Dirk 36.2
    2018: Harden 35.4
    2006: Nash 35.4
    2017: Westbrook 34.6
    2005: Nash 34.3
    2015: Curry 34.2
    2014: KD 33.8
    2016: Curry 33.4
    2019: Giannis 33.0

    "Following the historical pattern" [heh heh] the MVP never goes to a guy who plays so few minutes as Giannis.
     
    #194 sirbaihu, Mar 5, 2019
    Last edited: Mar 5, 2019
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  15. sirbaihu

    sirbaihu Member

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    40 years!!!! [Sorry: too late to edit the other]
    No MVP in 40 years has played as few minutes as Giannis. It would be unprecedented.

    (minutes per game of MVP's)
    2001: AI 42.0
    1982: Moses 42.0
    1979: Moses 41.3
    1994: Hakeem 41.0
    2002: Duncan 40.6
    1988: MJ 40.4
    2000: Shaq 40.0
    1985: Bird 39.5
    2004: KG 39.4
    2003: Duncan 39.3
    2010: LBJ 39.0
    2008: Kobe 38.9
    1998: MJ 38.8
    1992: MJ 38.8
    1984: Bird 38.3
    1980: Kareem 38.3
    1995: Robinson 38.0
    1986: Bird 38.0
    2013: LBJ 37.9
    2009: LBJ 37.7
    1996: MJ 37.7
    1993: Barkley 37.6
    2019: Harden 37.5
    2012: LBJ 37.5
    1989: Magic 37.5
    1983: Moses 37.5
    2011: Rose 37.4
    1999: Malone 37.4
    1990: Magic 37.2
    1991: MJ 37.0
    1997: Malone 36.6
    1987: Magic 36.3
    2007: Dirk 36.2
    2018: Harden 35.4
    2006: Nash 35.4
    1981: Dr. J 35.0
    2017: Westbrook 34.6
    2005: Nash 34.3
    2015: Curry 34.2
    2014: KD 33.8
    2016: Curry 33.4
    2019: Giannis 33.0

    The median minutes for an MVP in the past 40 years is 37.7 (Harden is at 37.5). The standard deviation is 2.3, which means the statistical outliers on the low end are: Dr. J, Westbrook, Nash, Curry, KD.
     
    #195 sirbaihu, Mar 5, 2019
    Last edited: Mar 5, 2019
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  16. BreakYoSelfFool

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    I agree Harden is the MVP and it shouldn't even be close. But, stranger things have happened in MVP voting.

    Wilt averaged 50+pts and 25+rebs for a season and didn't win MVP
    Jordan didn't win when he had his best scoring season.
    Steve Nash won 2 MVPs over KG, Dirk, Kobe, LeBron, and Shaq and wasn't the best player on his own team.

    I think Finals MVP is a better trophy anyways...
     
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  17. pippendagimp

    pippendagimp Member

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    had to endure the idiocy of a neverbearder this morning. started out w/ "he's an inefficient chucker." then moved to "he shoots too many freethrows." evolved into "he's a good offensive player but plays no defense." ended with "but he has no rings"
     
  18. Streets 01

    Streets 01 Member

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    Responses in bold.
     
  19. Swiss Roll

    Swiss Roll Member

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    I like how Shaq's b****ing managed to rewrite history into a viable MVP campaign in 2005, he averaged 22-10 on 57% TS% when Nash won his two MVPs. He wasn't even the best player on his own team, let alone an "MVP candidate". Nash straight up had better seasons than O'Neal by every metric.

    I agree that KG should have won in 04-05 and Dirk in 05-06, and that Amar'e was the real best player on that Suns team (S/O to (((Stern))) for suspending him vs SAS in '07).

    Fun Fact: Chauncy Billups finished 5th in MVP voting in 05-06, even crazier: he should have finished 2nd or 3rd.
     
  20. sirbaihu

    sirbaihu Member

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    It's official!

    No player who has only played 33.0 minutes has ever won the MVP.

    Every MVP in history, back to 1956, has played more minutes per game than Giannis. Maybe they were more . . . valuable . . . on the court than Giannis.
    Giannis better be pretty damn exceptional in those 33.0 minutes if he wants to be the lowest-minutes MVP in history.
     
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