Even though Morey's now a GM for 3 seasons, he has actually never been tested negotiating with important free agents from our team that had significant interest from other teams. There are only 3 free agents who had signficant roles on the team Morey's had to deal with are Carl Landry, Chuck Hayes and Ron Artest. Artest I think the team basically didn't want back, and Landry was a rookie who had an injury problem going into free agency so Morey went really hardball and matched an offer. And Chuck basically was unknown by the league and the rockets were the only ones who offered him. This offseason, we will actually have 3 important free agents, Lowry, Scola and Mcgrady. The circumstance of 2010 means that there will be a lot of teams with cap space AND there will be significant interest in ALL of our free agents from other teams. This means that Morey will have to do a masterful job of bidding against other teams with our own free agents which he has NEVER been tested before. I wonder if he will play hardball AGAIN this time with Scola and Lowry and basically go ask them to find an offer. Mcgardy will be interesting as well. Also, if he plays too hardball he could create a bad karma which will affect 2011 FA negotiations where Aaron Brooks is restricted FA, and Landry, Battier and Chuck are all UNRESTRICTED FAs. These two offseasons will define Morey's career, he has done a superb job in putting together this team, but now the harder challenge will be how to keep everybody on this team when it comes time to pay them.
I think this is what he will do: 1. Trade TMac for a good young player and a poison pill contract that can be moved as an expiring in a later year. 2. Resign Lowry and Scola - letting the market set the price in a down market year. 3. Use the MLE to sign either an older player with more tread left, or a younger player they think can develop. I believe this team has made a decision to go with Adelman's system....and are loving the results....and anyone that does not fit in, will be moved. DD
The thing is I could easily see Scola getting offered a contract similar to Charlie V, 5 years $40 million. And lowry, i could see someone throwing the full MLE at him, 5 years $30 million. If Morey matches those contracts, then EVERYONE else on the team in 2011 is going to want to be paid. Which I don't think the budget is there to pay everyone, so someone is going to have to go.
Lowry will get the Qualifying Offer and Morey can just sit and wait for other teams' offers. Scola IMO will not return to the Rockets if the Rockets enter the offseason with capspace. They will likely renounce his rights(his cap hold IIRC is a whopping $7 mil). If the Rockets instead get their star player this season via trade, then Scola's a no-brainer to return because Morey can once again just sit and match offers. Scola won't go elsewhere for equal money. T-Mac will be gone next FA. The only chance for him to return IMO is the same scenario as Scola. Except he'd likely be gone in such a scenario to make the money work. But if he's still around and the Rockets don't care about the cap, then Morey once again has the bird right in his pocket to use. IMHO, Morey needs to solidify his genius not through resigning our own players, but ATTRACTING a free agent to Houston. If we land one of the top targets next offseason, I will worship DM as my basketball god.
Based on BimaThug's thread, it doesn't look like we'll be able to offer much more than an MLE to a prospective free agent unless we choose to gut the team. But Morey has also said that he's looking to acquire another all-star talent. If Landry progresses like the Rockets hope (he's a potential 20 ppg scorer if he's getting starters minutes), they may try to sign and trade Scola and some other pieces for an all-star.
I'm happy at Carl's progress. He is doing better than expected. I do feel that better defense can slow him and prevent him from being a 20ppg guy,however I do think he should be retained,and Luis moved in a S/T. There is a risk in that,he could get a good contract, though not likely as big as 5/40 M forcing DM to make a decision whether to re-sign him or not. Luis plus pieces like Lowry may not be able to get us an all-star,but it's worth going that route.
By poison pill, you mean someone with a large, cap-killing deal, right? Not one where they get a bonus or something for playing X amount of games in a certain state or something... Just curious to hear what the motivation would be to have an expiring contract the following year? Do you think there will be a similar rush to accumulate expiring contracts after the big FA class of 2010 has come and gone?
Teams will be reluctant to trade for him,with his injury history. Management will play him once he gets back IMO.
Morey has gotten the following for low 1st round picks, 2nd round picks, cash, MLE, and useless contracts: OUR ENTIRE FREAKING TEAM this year. Suffice to say "quality depth" doesn't mean much to the Rockets, because Morey can always work his magic and conjure up some more role players. But bonafide all-stars just don't become available that often.
Reluctant to trade for Yao? He is a marketing goldmine. His trade value far exceeds his production on the court.
You really think Adelman or Morey wants to start all over and find the next Budinger or Landry in the draft? Guess what? Those players may not be there in the 2nd round next time. Morey has rolled the dice on the draft and so far he's been excellent. But there comes a point where we show commitment to what we have and develop the players that fit this system now. Like I said before, depending on which all-star, don't know if it's worth it. I mean, David West and Jameer Nelson were All-Stars last year, you want them?
i thik that still leaves us without a crunch time guy...all our guys are capable of doing things within a game, but in crunch time we're still having issues...morey has always pointed that out, that tmac is that guy, so i think he'll re-sign him as long as he proves he's healthy. So that would leave our swingman spot covered : Tmac/budinger shane/ariza or whatever combo works best. And did Bima's thread say we can keep lowry and scola if we re-sign tmac? Don't remember...if we can then that leaves brooks and lowry at the backcourt though, landry and scola at the 4 yao at 5, then try and get rid of guys like dorsey and taylor, cook. Then sign that big man we still don't have, the tyrus thomas type to go with Yao, or i guess keep DA.
Morey knows he wont have any cap space to sign FAs this offseason so he will trade for the franchise player during this season probably involving TMAC or Shane. This will allow them to go over the cap to resign that player long term and give them the flexibility to resign Kyle and the Argentine Dream! However if that star player is Bosh or Amare then Scola is gone as they are not going to make him a sub paying him crazy money. Side note, I think Les/DMorey knows next season will close the Yao window so they will be willing to go into luxury tax territory much like the Spurs did this year for one last run.
After so many years on the league, his marketing value has diminishing returns, which diminish with every game he doesn't suit up.
We dont resign Scola or Tmac and get Bosh or Amare in exchange for both of those contracts and Brian Cooks money off the books too. Some people are only viewing Tmacs money here. There isnt only Tmacs money we could trade for Bosh, Amare, Wade, or Lebron. Those players are so vauable and Landry is so good that we could give up Scola, Cook, and even Lowry if we had to, to sign one of these guys instead. I think one of those guys would be worth all of those players let go and just maybe retian Lowry by going over the cap a little. Morey has to get creative but we definately have the money for all of them and the best possible team for them to win a Championship with Yao coming back too.
