I hope no one minds if I start a fresh poll. There's been so much new data since the old one. For example, there are reports that Strickland and Biden were getting the most early buzz from the vetters, but Strickland's ruled it out in no uncertain terms. Edwards has also indicated he's sincerely not interested, but he hasn't flatly ruled it out so he's still on this list. There's a lot more clarity on the Clinton question too. Most notably, there are reports that the Clintons are resisting vetting where Bill's overseas business dealings and donors to his presidential library are concerned. If they don't agree to the same vetting anyone else would get, this is a non-issue and she won't be the pick. Equally notable is the fact that polls have shown Clinton backers largely breaking for Obama, which lessens her chances as well. If the above issues change (she agrees to vetting and, more importantly, his pull among her former supporters comes into serious question), she will vault to the top of the list. There's been no indication that unorthodox picks like Hagel or Bloomberg are getting any serious play, so I've taken them off the list. I've also left Dodd off. He has recently discovered problems with predatory lenders that I think will finally rule him out and being a liberal from CT doesn't help a lot either. In this poll, I'm only listing the top ten picks from the leaked list of 16. That means Clark and Richardson are gone for now. I've also left off James Jones as he seems to me to be a paper tiger. He has problems with past board associations and he's been tight with McCain for ages. I tend to think he was a safe placeholder for another similar candidate (Zinni or Clark maybe). Although Kerry was floated as one of the top 16, I tend to think he'll finish 16th. And Jack Reed is left off of this list too, just because I only have 10 slots and he just barely doesn't make the cut. (Incidentally, I met with Jack Reed for about 30 minutes when I briefly ran a theatre in Providence. We were asking him to consider a bond issue favoring capital funds for a new facility, which he did wind up supporting. He is a really sharp, really charming guy.) So what say you?
I would love for John Forbes Kerry to be the VP selection for Obama. <object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/6CKOHiT8vr0&hl=en"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/6CKOHiT8vr0&hl=en" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="425" height="344"></embed></object> Two elitist peas in a pod!
I love Joe Biden, and that's who I voted for. I think at this point I'd prefer Zinni, since no American knows the middle east quite like he does.
I voted Sebelius again, but there are things I like about each of these choices. As of today, I think Biden would be my second choice. I've cooled some on Webb, but I still like him. I like Kaine and Warner too. I love the idea of any popular Dem from VA and I'm willing to give up a vote in the Senate to have one of them on the ticket. Leaving my issues with Clinton aside, Nunn is by far my least favorite on the list because of his various troubling conservative positions. But he is hugely popular in Georgia. Bill Nelson is super intriguing as is Bob Graham (who didn't make this list). Both are very popular in Florida. Tom Daschle seems very unlikely, but it's hard to overestimate the bond he's formed with Obama. That said, he lost his seat while serving as majority leader (a very difficult thing to do) and he didn't deliver in the SD primary. Even so, he keeps coming up and I think there's something to that.
Oops. I left Bayh off too. I just completely forgot him, which is instructive. He is, after all, completely forgettable.
Obama needs someone with exerience, gravitas, and foreign policy/military credentials in order to balance the ticket out. <object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/AKZhrE-RIZk&hl=en"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/AKZhrE-RIZk&hl=en" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>
Is there anyone he might pick that would make you reconsider your vote? Would Hagel or Bloomberg make a difference to you? Or any Democrat? I'm also curious to know whom you'd like McCain to pick.
I think a new poll every 5-6 days is appropriate because opinions change. A poll for McCain would also be welcome.
I think Obama is perfectly happy with Mccain being defined as the war candidate, while Obama can be the candidate that has actually done something outside of war and government.
I really think you can overthink the vp slot. Obama's the main event. I don't know how much anybody really cares who's on the undercard. They'll applaud/b**** about the pick, but in the end -- Obama wins or loses this on his own.
It depends on what Obama and his search committee are looking for. Are they trying to balance the ticket? Pick up a swing state? Look ahead to 2016? The one that may fit all 3 criteria is Jim Webb. Obama/Webb/Warner more than put Virginia in play. But it would suck to lose a senator in a "red" state.
Maybe the thinking is "which candidate will help run my administration most effectively" in which case the the pick is paramount.
Bloomberg would be a good pick. He needs to pick somebody that will be attractive to the middle. Daschle lost his seat while he held a leadership position, and there are a zillion nasty soundbites from his time in Washington. As for McCain, I would like to see Bobby Jindal, but the likely pick is Governor Crist. Crist is a very popular governor in a state that McCain would have to win in order to win the election.
I'm in the mood for some Joe Biden. I just think Obama and Biden would be a terrific pair in this campaign. I remember seeing Clinton and Gore at the LBJ library in '92 and what an impression they made. Obama/Biden would be better. Biden has the foreign policy rep Obama lacks, is very widely know, but would be a surprise choice, is great on the talking head shows, gives a heck of a speech, and is unafraid to speak his mind. He's old enough to balance the relative youth of Barack. Ask me again in a few days and I might say someone else. I think Clinton would be a good choice, but Biden avoids the potential acrimony. And I don't think Obama should chose another woman. Call me crazy, but in my opinion, many women who supported Hillary would see it as blatant pandering. Impeach Boosh.
I'd bet on either Pawlenty or Romney. Florida is in the bag for McCain already... ...and for the libs to think that Obama is any more desirable to the moderates b/c of his VP pick is just plain ill-informed. Uh, hello, the guy is *extremely liberal*. When moderates get to know him, they won't like what they see... Think policies people, not marketing campaigns... moderates aren't as gullible as Axelrod seems to think...
He was probably my top pick in the "bring me a state!" category. I knew it was a non-starter, since he's going to capture a senate seat we need. Still, he would have been a great choice. Trim Bush.
I'm pretty sure it will not be Webb - women who supported Clinton are likely to break for Obama, but it's not a sure-enough thing that you can have the "Women Can't Fight" dude as veep without some backlash. If you put a gun to my head and made me predict, I'd say Sebelius or Biden, and then you'd shoot me because I couldn't make up my mind betwixt the two.
Historically the real job of VP is powerless place taking anyway, though of late that is less true with Gore and The Evil Overlord. So let's give women something to get on board with, a perception of empowerment. A much more interesting discussion will be the candidates for Sec. Of State, Sec. Of Defense, Director of Homeland Security and the CIA. Many of the more capable of the candidates in this poll might prefer those types of jobs.
