Mobley's value? He is the 2nd best SG in 1998 Draft

HeyPartner, good job. I liked this one the best: What is odd about Mobley bashing, is that several people who talk about devoting the entire season to giving the young guys experience, are now here saying they've lost patience for Mobley and we should trade one of our best young guns, who also happens to be one of the best 2nd year men around.

 

As one of the folks guilty of suggesting Mobley might make good trade bait, let me say that I totally respect heypartner's play-success-rate argument, and I wish we would all pay more attention to that stat. Another way to assess Mobley's value would be to count second assists (the pass that sets up the assist), as hp suggested. I'd like to know how many second assists Mobley racks up over the course of a game.

 

HeyPartner,

Great post. My only contention with Mobley, is that it is going to be painful watching both him and Francis basically making the same mistakes.

I would like to trade one of them..read Mobley, for an up and coming FRONT court player, as we are really thin in the future here.

I like his fire, but I would rather Francis have the ball in his hands late, as he needs to grow too.

DaDakota

 

Actually Larry Hughes turnover ratio is a little deceptive as he has played at least half of his minutes at the PG spot. But I have to argue that Mobley is definately NOT THE 2nd BEST 2 guard in the 98 draft. So what if Mobley commands a double team. That speaks more to the talent level on this team, which is weak. We have no decent scorers as of this moment aside from Francis and Mobley. There's no one else worth double teaming besides them two. Hughes doesn't get double teamed because he is actually on a playoff caliber team with good talent. He has the Answer and some solid, playoff quality role players in Matt Geiger and Theo Ratliff. Matt Geiger is a legitimate low post scorer unlike the players on the Rockets. And if you want to compare the trade value of Mobley with Hughes, you can't. Hughes is a 19 year old kid who has huge upside in terms of athleticism and skills. He is an outstanding rebounder for a guard. Averages 3 RPG in 21 minutes a game. Plus add in his 1.2 SPG and 10.9 PPG in limited action. He's a very productive player, but he can be very special. Mobley is a 25 year old 2nd year player who's potential ceiling can only go up so high. Mobley is a highly skilled 2 guard with slightly above average athleticism. Hughes is a little quicker than Mobley and definately can far out jump Mobes. Dickerson is also a much better 2 guard at this point than Mobley. Scores 15.7 ppg and shoots 38% from the 3. Also has a .429 FG%. Of course he's not going to be double teamed with a stud like Shareef Abdur Rahim on the team. But Dickerson is still the better 2 guard. Just because a player gets double teamed on a bad team with little talent doesn't make him the better player. Mobes is definately not the 2nd best SG in the 98 draft.

 

I see your thinking, but do you think mobes is better then Dickerson ? tough call.

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"Don't they get cable in Canada ?" Keith olbermann, after watching hakeem block terry catledge's shot 5 times.

 

Look at it this way. What do you ideally want out of your 2 guard. A guy who can put some points on the board, play some D, and handle the ball some when the opposing team uses full and half court presses. Dickerson is putting more points on the board at a much more efficient pace on a team with legitimate scorers in Abdur-Rahim, Bibby, and Harrington. Mobley is a number 1 option on offense yet he scores less than Dickerson at a less efficient pace. Both of their defenses are comparable even though I'd give the edge to Dickerson. Mobley of course is the better ball handler but his decision making is just soooo atrocious at times. Dickerson is the better rebounder. I have been so surprised and proud of how much Dickerson has improved his FT shooting. He's up to 83% this year compared to his 60 semi odd % shooting last year. They both are about the same age. Dickerson is the slightly better athlete. Mobley can break down the defense better but Dickerson is the better slasher and shooter. Mobley has the intangible edge with his confidence. When I rate a player and determine whether I would want them on my team. I look at two factors, their current productivity and future potential ceiling. So if I was the grade them, Dickerson is more productive now and they both have relatively the same potential ceiling. So thus I prefer to have Dickerson.

 

First off, I never said Mobley has average speed. He has very very good speed. I just think Hughes and Dickerson have better speed and quickness than Moblye. Larry Hughes is a good jump shooter. He just doesn't have 3 point range at this point. But hell it's not like Mobley is a good shooter either. 31% from 3 point land and 38.9% overall doesn't qualify him as even an average shooter. Both of their strengths is penetration and the medium range shot. Neither is a good long range shooter. So what if Mobley won a one on one tournament. What's does that mean to me. You do realize their our plenty of people around the world playing on playgrounds that could probably beat Michael Jordan at one on one. It doesn't make them a better basketball player.

My point with the double teams is this. The Rockets have only 2 decent scorers in Mobes and Francis. Almost everyone else is pretty much inept at filling it up. So the game plan people like to use is to stop our primary ballhandler, who is usually our primary scorer in the offensive set and they will win the game. So if you double mobes and francis, it forces the other guys on our team to make plays which usually doesn't happen. If Hughes or Dickerson were on this team, they'd be double teamed on the perimeter too. And the fact that Mobley was a 2nd round draft pick has absolutely no relevence in rating the guards in the 98 draft.

 

I think one of the main things the heypartner/DA Man conversation underscores is that Mobley is an undisputed talent. Arguing whether or not he's the best 2 guard from last year's draft is academic. If you think he's best served playing for another team, the Rockets had better get at least equal value. If that trade were made, I'd want to see a proven starter at any position in return for Mobley. I'm not sure many teams would trade a proven starter for who many in the league view as the Rockets' 6th man.

The whole upshot: keep Mobley for the remainder of his rookie contract to judge his value (that was the whole point of the lockout...to adopt some sort of rookie scaled contract for judging talent prior to paying the big bucks). If you still think he's worthless at that time, I might join you on that trade bandwagon.

[This message has been edited by driver8 (edited January 17, 2000).]

 

Re : One-on-one contests... you've already said you were just pointing this out for fun, but hell, Terrence Stansbury won a dunk contest and Willie Gault won the NFL's fastest man contest, too.

Re : Double teams... when you have Francis and Mobley on your team and then a bunch of bench players, hell yeah I'm going to double team you. If I shut either of you down, I've basically shut down the 90% of the team's scoring (or so it seems at times).

Re : second best SG... not to say Mobley's bad, he's not. But the fact that he's the 2nd best in the draft could also tell you how deep that draft was at SG.

Re : Bonzi Wells. This kid has game. He's averaging about 8 pts/game after his injury and he's doing it shooting 54% from the field as a freaking guard! When he needs to score, he can. He's only getting 8/game because he's only getting 16 mins/game because of the ton of talent on Portland. He's also doing it while averaging half the minutes Mobley is averaging and he's doing it for a team where he's definitely not one of the first 3 options nor does he have the green light to jack up shots at will. Of the ones you mentioned as not being better than Mobley, I think Bonzi would be the one I'd come closest to refuting. Larry Hughes may be another, but that's based purely on upside/potential.

Re: Mobley's production is all coming against double teams. Then how can we be running ISO's? You're exaggerating a bit there. Not even close to being right from the admittedly few games I've watched. If I could watch more games, I'd be better able to see if you're truly correct or not. That statement would seem fit Francis more at times.

It's not a question of giving Mobley experience... it's what he's doing with the time he's given. If one-one-one is his game, I'd rather trade for someone else because outside of Jordan, one-on-one rarely won championships, and even Jordan found out that it was difficult to win one-on-one. Isaiah found this out. Magic had all the talent in the world to take any player at any position off the dribble or by posting them up, yet he was content to play within his role.

I'm ok with trading Mobley as long as we get front-court help. Having Francis and Mobley in the backcourt is painful to watch sometimes. Francis, in his less-than-half-a-year, has learned to control his tempo and play within the offense. Mobley in his 1 year has yet to learn this. But then maybe Rudy doesn't mind this... and then again, when has Rudy condoned this kind of play? This is what leads me to think he's trying to build Mobley up for a trade.

Lastly, would you say that Mobley's defense can compare to Max's or Starks'? I can't say since I haven't watched many games. But don't just look at steals... I mean his defense as a whole.

Anyway, I'd like for Mobley to hang around if he could improve his shooting, but wouldn't mind him being traded. He's a very good player that could become better, but not by shooting wild shots with no-one under the basket or some of the other bricks I've seen him shoot. That's my stand. So there.

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Rocket fuel pumps through these veins...

 

Oh, and one last thing :

If we can keep Mobley but still package our 1st round pick this year with someone else and acquire a very good front-line player, I'd do that before getting rid of Mobley. I like Mobley coming off the bench... as someone once said, he may have Vinnie Johnson potential.

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Rocket fuel pumps through these veins...

 

As peculiar as it sounds, what I dislike most about Mobley is how clumsy he looks on the court. It seems to me that most truely talented players make the game look beautiful... Mobley seems to stumble his way to the basket.

That's why I prefer Dickerson over Mobley for instance, and why I always thought Hakeem was much better than Ewing.

 

Thanks, HP great to have someone doing research! Thanks for the work, and hopefully Mobley can go off in the next couple of days and silence the critics!

 

Some advantages Mobley has over Dickerson or many other 2-guards for that matter that haven't been pointed out:

The ability to finish. It's one thing to be able to get to the basket, but being able to finish a play is something different altogether. Dickerson could get to the basket (haven't seem him much this year), but he could never finish. He couldn't take it up strong. Mobley consistently finishes plays with body contact. That's a hard skill to acquire if you don't already posess it.

The ability to play 2 positions. This simply gives a team more flexibility. It depends on the individual coach's taste or offense, and Rudy likes this kind of guard. Mobley isn't just a 2-guard, he's a 2-guard that can also play the point.

Da Man said "Dickerson is putting more points on the board at a much more efficient pace on a team with legitimate scorers in Abdur-Rahim, Bibby, and Harrington. Mobley is a number 1 option on offense yet he scores less than Dickerson at a less efficient pace.", but all that means is opposing defenses aren't focusing on Dickerson. What's going to happen when one of their go-to guys goes down with injury? Good luck getting Dickerson to take the game over in their absence. Mobley's shooting percentage was higher last year when he was in a supporting role like Dickerson, so that shows what happens when defenses start keying in on you.

Regarding the double teams, Mobley was consistently being doubled last night as soon as he touched the ball behind the 3-point line, and this was while Francis was on the court. This would be akin to someone like Hughes being doubled while Allan Iverson was on the court at the same time.

 

Freak...Typically I agree with your assesment of players. Although lately we seem to not agree on much, but I digress:

Mobley is a weak finisher. Many, many times his drives to the hole end up an missed shots, or ugly turnovers. Your correct about the two players being about the same, finishing wise as of last year, but, but from what Ive seen of Mobley this year and last, it hasn't improved. Actually It may of gotten worse considering the amount of times he actually handles the ball.