Nightmare scenario hangs over Mexico election http://today.reuters.com/investing/...TRIDST_0_MEXICO-ELECTION-SCENARIO-PICTURE.XML
From what I'm seeing from the Mexican press and the futures markets, it looks like the PAN candidate, Calderon, is going to take this one. Probably a good thing for the US since the last thing we need is a leftist dictator type (AMLO) south of the border.
Two candidates have already claimed 'victory'...hope this gets straightened out sooner rather than later.
I'm afraid we might as well just give it to the right winger from the PAN. . If it is close, he wins. The wealthy elite who have run the country for the las 80 plus years under the PRI and now the PAN will steal it unless it is clear. Was it two or three elections ago when the computers mysteriously broke when the moderate leftist from the PRD, Cuahtemoc Cardenas, showed a big lead? When they were "fixed" he was comfortably behnind. Neuttral observers are near unanimous that there was massive fraud by the old guard PRI, which is now the centrist party. The weathy elite and their backers in the US will not concede a close election to the PRD and Lopez Obrador unless a massive popular uprising forces them to do so. The demonstrations in Mexico city will be in the millions if the conservative from the PAN is seen as stealing the election. If per chance Lopez Obrador is allowed to win with a close victory it will be a great plus for Mexican democracy which will then have the legitimacy of the US elections (not saying that much). It will be a great victory for the vast majority of Mexicans.
Well, the tables have turned in this wacky Mexico election. Check out the latest update: Link Lopez Obrador Leads After Partial Mexico Vote Recount (Update8) July 5 (Bloomberg) -- Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador led in a recount of Mexican election ballots that authorities say will determine the outcome of the nation's closest ever presidential vote. Lopez Obrador, the candidate from the opposition Party of the Democratic Revolution, had 36.6 percent of the vote while Felipe Calderon of President Vicente Fox's National Action Party had 34.7 percent, based on 82 percent of ballots counted. The results conflict with a preliminary tally that showed Calderon ahead of Lopez Obrador by 1 percentage point. Stocks, bonds and the currency tumbled today on concern that Calderon, who has vowed to stick with Fox's economic policies, may lose. ``It's impossible to arrive at any conclusion with this information,'' said Paulo Leme, managing director for emerging markets at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in Miami. ``We don't have information on the sampling.'' Preliminary results -- released on July 3 after counting 98.5 percent of ballots -- showed Calderon led Lopez Obrador by 402,708 votes. Calderon had 36.38 percent while Lopez Obrador had 35.34 percent, according to the preliminary count. Both candidates claimed victory, and Lopez Obrador vowed to challenge the results in court unless electoral authorities agree to recount every ballot, saying he had found evidence of interference and fraud. `Clean' Elections ``These were clean and exemplary elections,'' Luis Carlos Ugalde, president of the electoral institute, said at a press conference today. ``Certain things have come up as issues because of the tight margin.'' About 4,000 Mexican electoral workers and private citizens scrutinized ballots, sequestered at 300 district stations across the nation to review tally sheets. They have been recounting votes one by one on all sheets with discrepancies. Each district has a 13-person board that plans to go over an average 434 tally sheets. The election marks the first time in the Latin American country's history that authorities didn't name a victor following the preliminary hand count. Arturo Sanchez, a board member at the institute, expressed confidence yesterday in the initial count, saying it has proven accurate since the system was introduced in 1997 and never differed from the final recount by more than 0.4 percentage point. ``We've never seen a reversal of preliminary results,'' Sanchez said in an interview in Mexico City. ``But because this election was so close, we had to be more cautious before announcing a winner.'' Excluded Ballots The institute said yesterday that it excluded 2.58 million votes from the preliminary count because the tally sheets that contained those votes had inconsistencies such as illegible markings. If included in the preliminary count, those votes would have narrowed Calderon's lead over Lopez Obrador to 257,532 votes, or about 0.6 percentage point. Those votes will be included in the recount, authorities said. Mexico's benchmark Bolsa stock index dropped 4 percent today, its steepest fall in three weeks. The government's 8 percent peso-denominated bond due December 2015 had its biggest price decline since it was issued in January. The peso dropped 1.6 percent to 11.25 pesos to the dollar, reversing gains posted earlier in the week. Lopez Obrador, 52, promised to spend more on pensions and social programs and stop signing free-trade accords that he says only benefit the rich. His message resonated among millions of poor Mexicans -- especially those in the south of the country -- who can't afford housing, shoes, clothes or electricity. Calderon, a 43-year-old former energy minister who dubbed himself the ``President of Employment,'' vowed to attract investment and create jobs by keeping free-trade policies and public spending restraints that have curbed inflation and lowered interest rates.
Things would get real interesting if we end up having a Chavez-clone leading Mexico...I wonder how it would affect US-Mexican relations.
You are right. He is no Chavez. But he sounds like he is going to govern very irresponsibly if he is indeed elected.
I know that, sorry for the misunderstanding, I really meant a leftist/socialist leader who's not very fond of US-sponsored policies. I don't think the administration would be very pleased with such an outcome.
Obviously you don't know that Carlos Slim Helu is a chief supporter of Obrador. He is, of course, the man with the golden touch in latin america and the fourth richest man in the world owning huge stakes in telefono de mexico. Wealthy elite?? I think the most wealthy and elite of them all backs obrador, so you're stereotypes are a bit skewed.
Your right about Helu. Don't know who he is. However, you are not correct about the clear majority of the wealthy.
he always was. See my other post. Cheer up, bigtexx, we agree that AMLO is not a Chavez, but to the left of Calderon.
