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Memories of Summer 2009

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Carl Herrera, Aug 10, 2012.

  1. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

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    The bleak predictions on the Rockets record is reminding me of what people thought of the 2009/10 Rockets in the summer of 2009.

    At that time, many commentators (including Charles Barkley http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=176213&highlight=barkley) pegged the Rockets to finish with close to the worst record in the league.

    They questioned whether the Rockets have the talent to score 80 points a game because they just lost veterans Yao, McGrady and Artest, their three leading scorers and most talented players to injuries or free agency. Taking away these guys, the next highest scorer on the team, Luis Scola, averaged 12.7 ppg in the previous season.


    Instead, the 2009/10 Rockets had an above-.500 record and was in the middle of the NBA pack in terms of scoring efficiency with points produced by the likes of Scola, Brooks, Landry (2 years NBA experience for each of these 3), Lowry (3 years NBA experience) and Budinger (rookie). Each of these guys either stepped up their game substantially or, in the case of Budinger, was surprisingly productive as a rookie.

    Move forward a few years, in the summer of 2012, many now expect the 2012/13 Rockets to have close to the league's worst record because the Rockets lost its 3 best veteran players (Scola, Lowry, Dragic) and must rely on an inexperienced rotation including Lin, Asik, Patterson (2 years NBA experience), Parsons (1 year NBA experience) and the rookies (rookies).

    I have a hunch that the low expectations are not justified. It seems that at the root of such low expectations is a tendency among sports observers (including coaches) to confuse "unproven" with "incapable"-- which leads them to overrate vets who "have done it before" and underrate guys who have the capability but not the experience/opportunity.

    The whole "it's tough to win with young guys" lore among coaches is one manifestation of this tendency-- not that experience doesn't matter, but that, objectively, it matters far less than most people tend to think. If you have the right young guys with actual talent and the right approach to the game, the advantages of youth (athleticism, less injuries) can very much triumph over its disadvantages (mistakes, adjustment to NBA rules). This is how a number of inexperienced players on the Rockets (among other teams) have been major parts of good or even very good teams.


    My theory is that a big part of "it's hard to win while young" is that "it's hard to win when you choose young guys who don't have talent or don't know how to play." A lot of teams lose with young guys because they suck evaluating young guys without a track record. So your "young" end up being Wesley Johnson and Jonny Flynn (One advantage you have with playing older guys is that you can more or less figure out who the good older are).

    Over the last several seasons, this team has been good at picking up young guys who can and know how to play based on limited data. I have a feeling that the team will be right about enough of the guys on the roster and surprise some people like the 2009/10 team did.

    Do you think the comparison if fair?
     
  2. jbasket

    jbasket Member

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    Absolutely. Well stated; I am glad somebody brought this up. With Martin in contract year and Patterson healthy and playing for his starting job, both of them will probably bounce back stronger than last year. In addition, Asik is will probably be much better than Dalembert or hurt Camby.

    I still don't think we will make playoffs. But we will not be in contention for the top 3 picks.
     
  3. Cstyle42

    Cstyle42 Member

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    I'm willing to put up $100 Asik won't put u
     
  4. Cstyle42

    Cstyle42 Member

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    ...up better stats than Dalembert. ^^^
     
  5. jbasket

    jbasket Member

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    Unfortunately I do not have $100 (bad economic times), but I will try to remember this thread then. 7 ppg, 7.5 rpg, and 1.7 bpg. And a buttload of inconsistency.
     
  6. DonatasFanboy

    DonatasFanboy Member

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    The difference --- it wasn't fair to call that team inexperienced all along.
    The core guys on that team (Scola, Battier, Brooks, Hayes, Landry, Lowry) went through battles together.

    They were in that huge win streak. They were deep in the playoffs many times. And the previous year they pushed the championship Lakers as far as anyone.

    This was a team that was mostly "promoted from within" so to speak, and the core players were no kids, even if some of them were around mid 20s.
    They all knew each other, they had strong veteran leadership and winning experience, they had chemistry, they had loads of confidence, they had a very stable system, and they had a very strong and experienced coach whom they knew very well.

    The only significant newcomers were Ariza and Budinger (and Martin towards the end of the year).
    And I'd argue that neither of them was a top 5 most important player on that team, in terms of impact on winning and culture.
    Replace them with any marginal starter and decent backup SF, and there's no huge difference in wins that year.

    Now, you have guys who mostly don't know each other. The team is torn apart and rebuilt.
    They'll spend the first few months trying to figure each other out as players and as people. And it will take much longer than that for them to develop the same chemistry and understanding.
    On top of it, they will have to figure out a new system and a new coach.
    Also, rookies will play a bigger role (not just one Budinger as back then).
    And noone really has a lot of meaningful winning experience. It's nice that Lin has pro personality, and that Asik is coming from a no nonsense, winning culture and had some playoff battles. But it's not quite close to the culture of that team.
    It's bound to take time.
     
    1 person likes this.
  7. DonatasFanboy

    DonatasFanboy Member

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    or at least some of them. some of them twice. which i suppose would still be many compared to this team.
     
  8. OlajuwonFan81

    OlajuwonFan81 Member

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    In all honesty who cares?

    We have absolutely no shot at winning a title any time soon. The Lakers Heat and Thunder will better than we will ever be no matter how our rookies pan out. Even if we do overachieve like we always do it won't matter.

    At this point the only chance we have of ever assembling a team that can be a championship contender is to go the Thunder approach. These other approaches have completely failed. We couldn't even get howard in the year we had all the assets lined up and had really no competition.
     
  9. Mathloom

    Mathloom Contributing Member

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    Completely agree with you, but I have a hunch that our head coach is one of the people who over-values experience and the resultant poor locker room atmosphere will shoot down our chances at having a decent season.
     
  10. xiki

    xiki Contributing Member

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    Love the optimism, and I remain optimistic for the future. But, now? This season? Where's the locker room leadership? How long to find their roles? KMc was a truly great 4 in his day; not so great in his second (and third) act(s).

    I believe we have the wrong coach for this team at this time. Would Finch be better? Nate Mac? Elie?

    I am positively relishing watching the guys mature and praying to the basketball gods for ping pong balls as well as an epicly poor season north of the border.
     
  11. c1utchfan925

    c1utchfan925 Contributing Member

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    Morey's said he's trying to rebuild the Celtic way, with over the hill superstars. I think, holding back any major trades, we're going to try to develop the rookies we have and then ship them out with our future draft picks for proven players. Seeing as how that has a higher % of building a championship team than anything else we can try to do. It's funny even though the new CBA and crap was built to try and prevent superstars/franchise players from all joining the same team, with the exception of the Thunder/Celtic the Heat/Lakers have a huge advantage because of being in bigger markets and such.

    I can't wait to root on no one in the finals if the Heat and Lakers get there next season. As much as I think Wade is an awesome player and I think Nash is the only player I could stand rooting for on the Lakers now. I hope they both tear each other apart. I don't mind teams that work hard and try to build properly but when you've got GM's making trades to make strong teams stronger. It really makes the NBA seem more of a joke than anything.


    It's going to basically be an All-star game if the Heat/Lakers play. you've got 4 all stars on the Lakers and then 3 all stars on the Heat making 7 total all stars. Seems like the NBA is rigged to me. Even if the Rockets were to have either the same roster as the Heat/Lakers, I'd still think it was rigged.

    David Stern, just step down and move away from basketball, you obviously really suck at your position.
     
  12. HMMMHMM

    HMMMHMM Contributing Member

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    I agree in that I don't think the Rockets will be a bottom-5 team. However, I disagree with those who think this is a borderline playoff/40-win+ team.

    This team may be as or more talented than last year's team, but talent doesn't equal wins. Execution does. We're just too inexperienced of a team.
    I do agree that often it's not the case of not winning because of "youth", but rather because of "bad youth", but still you can't underestimate the learning curve. Not only of the players, but the coaches, too. It takes a while for coaches to figure out what to run/how to use their players best and what works and doesn't work for them.
    There's little to no continuity. There are no or at least not enough defined roles and there's just too much overlap in terms of talent and position.

    I think there are at least 9 teams better than the Rockets in the West (OKC, SAS, LAL, LAC, MEM, MIN, GSW, DAL, DEN). I'd probably put the Jazz ahead of the Rockets as well.
    I think the Rockets will be up there with the Blazers & Suns and ahead of the Hornets & Kings.
    I expect the Rockets to be better than most of the sucky East teams (CHA, DET, CLE, WAS and probably ORL), too, so I believe they'll end up picking in the 7-11 range.
     
  13. Ziggy

    Ziggy QUEEN ANON

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    Asik can you help you win games man. So can Parson's. I don't think this team is all that bad although 4 NBA rookies and Lin getting significant minutes will mean the most turnovers we've seen from a Rockets team since Francis/Mobley/Yao.

    If Adelman was coaching, yeah, we'd probably win too many games. With McHale, not so sure he can direct these guys to a point where they know how to win. Especially since there's no leader on the team and Martin will be whining all year long until he's traded or renewed.
     
  14. jbasket

    jbasket Member

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    Agree. I also have a hunch that Mchale will not use our versatility to exploit mismatches in different lineups.
     
  15. Rockets_4_life

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    Washington got a lot more respectable with the additions of Nene, Okafor, Ariza and Beal. I see them with a better record then the Rockets.

    Also I think your either underestimating the Blazers and Suns, or your overestimating the Rockets, by putting those three teams in the same level. The Blazers maybe young, but they still have two near all-star level players in Batum and Aldridge, not to mention other savvy vets like Matthews, Hickson and Jeffries. That alone puts them a head of the Rockets IMO. As for the Suns, I think it goes without question that with the additions of veterans like Scola, Beasley, Dragic, and retaining Gortat, that they are clearly better then us.

    If truth be told, I think NOH is also slightly better then us, given that they manage to retain an all-star level player in Eric Gordon and added additional impact-full veterans like R. Lopez and Ryan Anderson. Not to mention they also have possible ROY, Anthony Davis, whose impact on defense should be felt from day one.

    I think were in the same level as Sac, were young and talented but extremely, ridiculously, inexperienced. When two of your veteran leaders are a second and third year player you know your screwed in terms of wins and losses. Although with that said I do still think Detroit, Cleveland, Orlando, Charlotte and maybe Sacramento are worse then us.
     
  16. AXG

    AXG Member

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    That would be the worst thing to happen to the Rockets, to be a borderline NBA playoff team and end with the 14th pick again. Judging by the talent, I'd say we're near the bottom 5. I also don't think this year's team has much resemblance to that 2009 team. Although '09 didn't have the marquee names, it was the gritty supporting cast from the previous playoff runs. Nearly everyone on this season's roster is new and/or a rookie. It will take a while for them to develop much chemistry to be successful.
     
  17. SamFisher

    SamFisher Contributing Member

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    The fact that Charles Barkley was wrong and that that team was actually decent, rather than pulling a "Spurs pre Duncan" era season is why we have Patrick Patterson instead of Demarcus cousins or Greg Monroe.
     
  18. xiki

    xiki Contributing Member

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    This year's squad is led by Kevin 'Gimme vets, vets and more vets' McHale. Rox need to change his name to Kevin Ex-Hale!
     
  19. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    I agree, but can I also say that Scola / Lowry were vets that were underrated. They were the heart and soul of the teams prior and a large reason for the unpredicted success.

    My point is an "unproven" vet (someone transitioning from role player to focus of the offense) is different than an "unproven" rookie.

    Relative to other teams, we are seriously lacking in the Veteran department, so this time (vs the recent 3 years), we have a higher probability of falling on our collective faces and having a serious tumble into the lottery.
     
  20. Angkor Wat

    Angkor Wat Member

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    Would you guys be ok with this young team getting 9th place? I know people hate being in that position year after year....
     

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