McLane "Vows To Evaluate" Astros

If we sign Miggy, we might (MIGHT) have $5 to $6M million to spend on an FA pitcher. That could get us a decent pitcher if the FA market is depressed like it was last year. I doubt seriously it would bring Sheets. I think Wolf is under contract to LA (but I am not sure about that).

If Miggy can play 3B at a reduced salary, and we can sign a #3, I think we would be much improved. I doubt we would have to worry about getting World Series tickets, but they would be much more fun to watch.

 

If you're just looking at next year, I think you dump Tejada and Valverde - that clears about $25MM in salary. Let Hawkins be the closer. Between him, Wandy, and general contract inflations of people already signed, you're talking about probably $8-$10MM, so that leaves about $16MM.

The problem with this team is significant holes. I wouldn't try to sign any top-tier type player, but instead try to maybe get 3 $5MM guys or 4 $4MM guys. Or maybe even 6-8 $2-$3MM type players. You've got to plug as many holes as you can with functional, average talent. Berkman/Lee are above average, and you hope Bourn/Pence progress and get above average, then you have an above-average offense. Pitching, you have two above average pitchers in Oswalt and Wandy, so if you can get 2 functional starters, you can be average or above average there.

And after that, pray for miracle career years out of a bunch of guys and hope that's enough to contend.

 

Better late than never I guess.

 

If Tejada moves to 3b, who plays SS? Tommy Manzella? Is the organization even high on him? Last thing I read was that there wasn't anyone in the system that was remotely close to being ready to play SS. Maybe I'm thinkin of 3b, or 2b, or hell....

I wouldn't mind bringing Wolf back and I agree this team needs a number 3.

But there is no way Wagner comes back here; as much as I loved the guy when he was here, his mouth ran him out of town and I doubt Drayton's forgot that. Plus it wouldnt make a lot of sense to spend a lot of money on him after letting Valverde go. PLUS, bringing Wagner back makes an already aging team that much older. The team's better off letting Valverde go and sticking with Hawkins as a closer, and using that money to sign a starter.

I think you're overvaluing Pence. He alone is not gonna get this team the quality of pitcher it needs. And I'd rather they keep him, since he's young, and let Tejada go. But I'd rather they keep Pence and Tejada, and hopefully sign Tejada to a much smaller contract.

I agree that pitching wins. And I wanna see a legitimate number 3 on this team next year, and not band aids like Hampton and Ortiz and Woody before them. I'd like to see the team get younger too and start to truly build around players like Bourne and Pence and Wandy; these guys are our future.

Damn, I don't think I've felt more more strongly in the past decade than I do right now that the team is at serious crossroads. The coaching staff isn't getting it done, we have some aging players that have swallowed a lot of the team's money, a number of holes on both sides of the game. Ugh.

 

Pence could definitely fetch an aging or soon-to-be-free-agent #3, but not a young, under-club-control #3. And if you do that, you just continue the problem that's plagued this organization for the past several years of trading young players that you control for older players that you don't. It will just exacerbate the problem a few years down the line.

 

Tejada is barely hitting better than the average NL shortstop (sort by wOBA): http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&lg=nl&qual=y&type=1&season=2009&month=0

He'll be 36-years-old next season. His production at 3rd would likely be well below league average. I think we need to seriously think about letting him walk or offering him arb if we believe he'll get picked up elsewhere.

Sure, Miggy + Manzella would be an improvement, offensively, over let's say, Johnson + Manzella but what if we have limited resources available?

Consider this...

We have $55 million tied into just 4 players next season. Wandy, Pence and Bourn are all due for raises. That would potentially put us at between $65 and $70 mil for just 7 players.

Our opening day payroll has been over $100 million just once in the history of this franchise. To expect Drayton to push $100 mil again with the bad economy, poor attendance and loss of sponsorships may not be a fair assumption. I think a reasonable expectation (not fixed in stone) would be about $90 mil, all factors considered. That means you are left with possibly $20 mil to sign 18 players just to fill the 25-man roster. Even if Drayton pushes $100 mil, you are still looking at minimal resources available on a per player basis just to sign enough players.

If money is tight, I'd rather spend it on starting pitching and take the hit, offensively. That would mean letting guys like Tejada and Valverde walk or offering them arbitration with the confidence that they will get picked up by other teams.

 

Our #1 priority should be signing a legitimate #3 starter. I still feel we need to find an offensive threat at catcher. I don't know if Castro will be called up next year but I doubt he will be on our opening day roster. I suppose we can count on Q and Towles for another year.

I would not mind Tejada back but he needs to accept reduced pay and if he can play 3rd base that's even better. Our outfield is pretty much set. Our bullpen is questionable, who knows what Sampson will be giving us, Hawkins is getting older and when will he lose effectiveness?

Kaz is probably safe, IMO, because the Astros have more pressing needs that they need to be addressing.

 

I would once again call for Drayton to clear the decks. He basically has a poorly constructed, old club with a very few players who aren't superstars making a ton of money and a bunch of Blums, Keppingers, and Moehlers filling roster spots. Time for Drayton to sit down with Carlos Lee and Berkman, find out where they'd accept trades to and then get 2/3 quality prospects for each of them. Use some of that money you save in contracts and take some risks later in the draft waiving big money for some top college committed players. Start building this team around Bourn and Pence.

 

Mclane needs to sell this team, POS has ruined the farm system over big names. .. i wish as fans we had a chance to impeach a owner

 

Trade off some of our high priced talent and bring in young cheap players to rebuild with. Start adding pricy free agents to our young core as they mature and become players.

It's as easy as that, you just have to select the right players to do it with.

 

Miggy may be offensively below average for a 3B, but he is better than Blum, and probably Boone. In fact, what reasonable option is there for 3B that is better than Miggy?

Not to mention the fact that Miggy is a good clubhouse guy.

 

I can remember growing up in the late 70s and throughout the 80s. For the most part, the team was HORRIBLE. It was like being in Pittsburgh today. You pretty much knew you had no chance. The team was run by credit unions in receivership and then it was purchased by John McMullen. He was a bad owner.

From 1965-1992 (27 years), prior to McLane, the team had 2, that's right 2 trips to the playoffs. That is going to the playoffs 7% of the time.

From 1993-present (16 years), with McLane, the team has been to the playoffs 6 times and the World Series once. That is a playoff appearance 37% of the time.

Is he perfect, no. But he has taken a perpetual loser into a product that is competitive most of the time.

 

I just wish the Astros would be make a decision either way. If they are going to rebuild, then rebuild. If they are not, well then get into the bidding and be ready to take the payroll to $150-160 million. This in between non sense is what drives the fans crazy.

Priority one should be to see what you can get for Roy Oswalt. You will not get multiple AAA or AA blue chip prospects for him. The way teams horde prospects these days, you can expect to get one ready to contribute prospect legit A ball prospects. They should offer Valverde arbitration, because he most likely deny it, therefore provide extra draft compensation. If he does accept it, get a deal done, then, he becomes trade bait. There will always be takers for a closer. Tejada should just walk. There is no reason for him to be on the team. I loved him here, and love his game, but he doesnt make sense for the Astros.

Carlos Lee is virtually untradeable. Berkman is the face of the franchise, and should not be traded. I also think that the Astros should get on with the plan for 2010. There is absolutely no reason that Manzella, Maysonnet, and who ever else is in there plans should not be up and playing. There is also absolutely no reason for Kaz Matsui, Geoff Blum, and Tejada ( for that matter) to get another start. Let us see what we have to work with.

I wish McClane would just commit to the future. I truly believe the fans would be behind him and the organization if they did that. Do not continue to sell is this garbage. I was a season ticket holder from 2004 through 2008. (Mini 27- Game Plan). If the Astros committed to rebuilding I would buy my mini plan today. Show us you have a plan for the future.

 

I agree with your point about Blum and Boone which I was getting at when I mentioned Johnson + Manzella in my previous post.

The point I was ultimately getting at wasn't whether Miggy would be our best option, offensively, at 3rd but rather if Drayton is faced with a situation where he has limited money to spend, how should he best use it?

If there is plenty of money availabe, which I don't project being the case (7 players taking up as much as $70 mil), maybe there is a better third basemen available for $7-8 million or whatever Tejada will command. I have no idea.

Even if Drayton is willing to spend $100 million on opening day payroll for just the second time in team history, it will still be tough to make big splashes in free agency, including signing Tejada.

 

Why aren't you factoring in playoff expansion here? The Astros have had 2 NLCS appearances under McLane. This is the equivalent of a playoff appearance prior to expansion.

 

Just to be fair, they expanded the playoffs from 4 teams to 8 teams in 1995, right about the time McLane took over. I'm not using this as an argument against McLance but just to make those numbers more realistic. If only the top 2 teams from the NL made it to the playoffs, how many postseason appearances would we have under McLane?

I think a better comparison would be our winning percentage before and after McLane, and I believe it is extremely high, still supporting your point.

Edit: I see Xenon made a similar point about expansion, except that during the seasons where they were the WC, they wouldn't even have a chance to play in the NLCS under the old format.

 

I think the difficult part is shifting philosophy. A lot of fans would get frustrated in the short-term no matter what fans like you and I think. That is McLane's fear and it's valid. However, a few years in, when young prospects start popping up somewhat consistently and you are still willing to spend around $100 mil on payroll, fans will get on board. The next time Drayton trades off popular players, and the team possibly takes a small step backwards to take two steps forward, more fans will understand/less fans will be frustrated. A team like the Cleveland Indians does this regularly and every few years they seem to have a competitive club despite having a payroll that is about a third or fourth of the Yankees and Red Sox.

Getting McLane to accept this transition period of extreme frustration may be the most difficult part. Things will hurt initially for a few years but once the new and better philosophy pays off a couple of times, everybody will be better off. McLane's willingness to spend will pay off two-fold if he better manages the farm.