Saturday UPDATE: Obama Losing On Latest Zogby ZOGBY SATURDAY: McCain outpolled Obama 48% to 47% in Friday, one day, polling. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all.
THIS ISN'T A POLL. First of all, it's one poll out of like 15 out there. Secondly, you do realize that this isn't the poll result that will be released tomorrow, correct? It's one day. Outliers happen all the time. Obama has had individual tracking days where he's been up 20 percent. That's why national polls use results from three to four days to tabulate their results -- to balance out the statistical noise and randomness that happens if you use only one day and a limited amount of respondents. So, the thread title is completely false, because there's no such thing as a "daily" Zogby poll. The Zogby poll is a composite of 3-4 days, much like any other reputable poll. However, Drudge has a lot of foaming mad, far-right lunatics as his primary audience, so he spins it into something it's not to get hits. Pretty simple.
I check out the latest zogby poll and it is indeed a 3 day poll. http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSTRE49J0LF20081031 WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democrat Barack Obama's lead over Republican rival John McCain held steady at seven points as the race for the White House entered its final four days, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Friday.
Absolutely. All the major tracking polls are at least three days, and some four, depending on how many interviews they complete per day. This isn't anything out of the ordinary. In the past month, there have been numerous individual days with Obama up 15-20, while there have been some individual days with McCain tied or even slightly in front. The key is, with a reasonable sample, they average each other out. This isn't a reasonable sample... but conservatives are grasping at straws, and Drudge is willing to take advantage.
For additional perspective, Zogby was rated the worst pollster in 2004, predicting a Kerry EV majority on the day of the election. They claimed to have made improvements to their model, but it hasn't seemed that way thus far. On Super Tuesday, Zogby had Obama winning by 6 in California. He lost by 10. It's one day -- not even a real poll -- by one poll out of dozens, conducted by the worst polling company known to man. I'll take the other 99.99999 percent of polls out there.
The Cat now you made Old Man Rock feel bad with your reasoning. I don't see him refuting your logic. LOL.
The main criticism I've heard of the Zogby poll is that it's model is based on the assumption that voter turnout will be exactly as it was in 2004.
i completely agree that one shouldn't take this to the bank (assuming you favor mccain), and that the result may be an outlier (and zogby, in general,is not to be trusted). and in any case, i don't trust any polls at this point. trends, however, are interesting, and this is yet another indicator that the race is tightin' up. and, since the only poll that matters is that on 11/4, i'm curious about the strenuous efforts to discredit this one day result... but then one reads this and it all makes sense...what's the spiff on discrediting that blog?
Yeah, trends are interesting. Here's a look at the trends over the past couple of days, and the indicators are anything but tightening. http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showpost.php?p=3985601&postcount=489 What's the spiff on that? I think it goes without saying that one random unidentified, unsourced poster on a random message board isn't particularly credible. Hell, Republicans seem to have decided that entire polling organizations, among the most respected in the world, are all "in the tank" and untrustworthy. If dozens of professional polling organizations aren't to be trusted, why in the world would you trust a random blog post by an anonymous person you've never heard of? I could sign up for one of those forums and write a dissertation of how I'm an "insider" with insider polls showing McCain or Obama up 30, and the reaction would be every bit the same.
The effort to discredit the poll is based on people valuing facts and good science. Accuracy and actual sound analysis may not be important to you, but is important to many of us who like to deal in reality. Why you would think people actually providing accurate information is a bad thing is beyond me. And no, the race does NOT appear to be tightening up. This is the aggregate of all the tracking polls: Does that look like tightening to you?
Yes it is true Zogby basis their polls on 2004 but their is evidence that they should and I'll tell you why. First if you understand a little of the science behind polling then you’ll get a better understanding why all the polls might be wrong. The Democrats' according to Obama and pollsters have a growing advantage in party identification. Meaning more blacks and youth and women are registering. Plus Obama has promised a get out to vote ground game like never seen before. Well pollsters have bought into Obama’s rhetoric and adjusted their polls accordingly. Pollsters have adjusted their equation of how they calculate who they poll based on registered voters and the likelihood they will vote. The problem with this is this year more than ever it is a guess there has never been a massive registration of new voters especially of voters who have a tendency not o vote and their has never been a ground game Obama’s. But the adjustment is all over the board. For example Pew Research Poll has their Party ID skewe 15 points in favor of Dems. That means when they poll 400 registered republicans they have to pol 550 dems before the calculate their results. Pew is the worst CBS is right behind them but Rasmussen and Gallup are at 8 points. The party ID has never been at 8 points the highest in recent history was about 4 and in 2000 it was 1 point. Now because Accorn has registered so many new voters and Obama say he will get them to vote. So every poll buys into that and now we have these polls skewed left and Mccain is getting killed. Gallup is even so unsure of their traditional Likely to vote poll that they have thrown out another poll along side it based on what the person being polled say they are going to do. That is just ridiculous. What ever little science there was with Gallup is thrown out the window with that poll. In Addition pollsters are saying it is more difficult to get people to respond to polls than ever. 80% of all people refuse to respond! Why is that? I think it is because Democrats who won’t vote for Obama are embarrassed to admit it and republicans are more private in general but also don’t want you to think they are racist. But the Obama supporters are happy to speak. So that makes the results inaccurate but what really throws all of this off skewed polling out the window is that so far all of the states that have early voting are a lot of Democratic PUMA (Party Unity My Ass) in support of McCain and the youth which was supposed to be big for Obama is coming in at 50 50. So I think you will see a very fast tightening of the polls as the pollsters realize their party Identification is way off skew and they reset it to the 3-5% that the early voting is indicating. My second theory is not scientific at all but it is based on 2 people I know who are running for office. And what I got out of it is the dem said Obama has been running events in her district every week and everyone loves him. It’s like the guy on the corner who’s buying beer for everyone and they love him but once the beer runs out they’re gone. That’s what is happening with Obama he is throwing parties and feeding them everything they want to hear but now they are starting to see he is running out of beer and they are gone. As for the Repub it’s just this gut feeling that the guy they have isn’t the partying buddy but if something happens to you and you need help he’ll be there. No science here and of course it is just an opinion but that’s what I got. And I would be very surprised if this race isn’t very close both electorally and the popular vote.
this looks like tightening to me Spoiler but you may not be old enough to understand that election night is gonna be a rollercoaster...
Umm, the party ID shift began several years ago before Obama started running. The pollsters adjusted their party ID weight based on: 1. Results from 2006 which showed a shift in party ID. 2. Actual voter registrations over the last few years that showed a shift in party ID. 3. Actually polling of people asking them their party affiliation, which showed a shift in party ID. It has nothing to do with "Obama's rhetoric". The fact that you think it does should create massive warning bells in people's head when reading your posts about how polling works.
