I know that the "Rest of February" thread is still going, but I think it's time to start this one. There's a Democratic debate in Austin next week, and then there's this: http://www.houston.org/media/pdfs/SummitCandidateSpeakers.pdf Candidates Participating in Houston’s Presidential Summit Houston has become pivotal to the heated Texas primary and the candidates will share their views on America’s energy future at a Feb. 28 forum here HOUSTON, TEXAS (FEB. 15, 2008) – The Greater Houston Partnership has converted the candidate portion of its Feb. 28 Houston’s Presidential Summit into a format that will allow direct and substantive speeches by the candidates. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-NY, and Rep. Ron Paul, R-Lake Jackson, have agreed to participate and deliver addresses before a large audience and on national television. MSNBC has agreed to cover the event and has the capability to take the candidates' speeches live coast to coast. The event, “America’s Energy Future: Houston’s Presidential Summit,” is hosted by The Greater Houston Partnership. “We believe this format will provide much more in-depth and substantive exploration of vital issues such as energy that are paramount to voters here and throughout the United States,” said Jeff Moseley, president and chief executive officer of the Greater Houston Partnership. “Also, not all of the candidates were able to participate in a debate format, and this change makes it possible for any and all leading candidates to attend.” Houston has become pivotal to the heated Texas primary, which takes place on March 4, just days after Houston’s Presidential Summit. “We’re very pleased that Sen. Clinton and Congressman Paul see the importance of coming to Houston, the world’s energy capital, to discuss America’s energy future,” said Moseley. “We hope other candidates will accept our invitation to be here as well.” Houston’s Presidential Summit is just part of what will be a daylong event. It will also feature a luncheon with a keynote address by an internationally-recognized guest, an energy symposium that will headline world-renowned speakers and energy executives, and an array of energy-related exhibits furnished by leading energy suppliers that showcase cutting-edge technologies and innovations. Additional information on Houston’s Presidential Summit, as well as sponsorship, exhibit and ticket opportunities can be found at www.houstonspresidentialsummit.com. Media wishing to cover the event can register for credentials at www.houstonspresidentialsummit.com/media-center.
A couple of recent Texas polls: Texas Credit Union League: 49-41 Clinton American Research Group: 48-42 Obama
Check out this Hillary campaign video. The website I found it on said "the video is aimed at capturing the r****d Vote". Please forgive me for posting this but I think it's hilarious. <object width="425" height="355"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/UefSpWGD19k&rel=1"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/UefSpWGD19k&rel=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="355"></embed></object>
I don't believe this was made by her campaign -- it seems like something some well meaning but misguided supporters put together and posted on you tube.
Polls suggest Wisconsin is becoming a much closer race - one has Hillary up by 5 (I think). If Hillary can pull off Wisconsin, it changes things a bit going into the March 4th states. I think it makes TX/OH much more challenging for Obama - there will be two weeks of coverage that includes her "upset" win, and she will have two weeks to continue her strategy (which is negative - understandably so at this point). That said, Obama doesn't necessarily need to win either state, but if he did, it would basically end the fight. If he doesn't, this thing is going to drag on past Pennsylvania. Obama has a number of good states after PA, so he's not going to quit. And Hillary will have closed the gap enough that her superdelegate and/or FL/MI strategy will still be workable, so she's not going to quit.
I always thought WI was a strong state for Hillary. I agree that she can really do a lot to stop the bleeding if she wins Wisconsin. If it's Obama wins it by less than 5 there is no change in the way things stand now, with maybe Hillary getting a slight bounce. If Obama wins between 6-11, he gains a slight momentum boost.
Another goof from Hillary's "ready from day one" campaign: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/17/AR2008021702461.html Supporters of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton are worried that convoluted delegate rules in Texas could water down the impact of strong support for her among Hispanic voters there, creating a new obstacle for her in the must-win presidential primary contest. Several top Clinton strategists and fundraisers became alarmed after learning of the state's unusual provisions during a closed-door strategy meeting this month, according to one person who attended. ... Good to see that her campaign is just now learning how the Texas primary/caucus works. You'd think that she'd have considered this *before* focusing all her efforts on TX/OH. Perhaps if she loses Texas, we will learn how Texas didn't count because it was a red caucus state. Is this the type of organization and leadership her Presidency would have? Clueless advisors, advisors scared to tell her major concerns, advisors hired due to loyalty instead of competence (sound familiar?)?
Early exit polls suggest an Obama blowout. Exit polls tend to favor Obama for whatever reason, but hopefully the "blowout" aspect suggests at least a close Obama win. Exit polls also say Obama wins women and low-income voters. If that happens, that would be a significant breakthrough into her base - in a state truly contested by both parties. .
With the Wisconsin results and the recent Texas and Ohio polls, the Dem contest is over unless Obama stumbles. Like the guy just said on CNN, Obama will beat Hillary tonight by almost the same margin as McCain over Huckabee. I find that surprising. Hillary's future now completely hinges on the debates. I expect her to go for broke and come out swinging very hard. If that ends up hurting her, she has nothing at all to lose at this point. If she doesn't aggressively attack him during the debate and try to rile things up, it will be a signal of surrender. The entire campaign season has proven that time is on Obama's side. Two weeks of focus on Ohio and Texas play right into his hands. Donna Brazile just drilled Hillary's speech writer.
It's interesting - the more she goes negative, the worse she does. Frankly, if I'm her campaign strategist at this point, I'm not sure what the solution is. She simply doesn't do negative well at all - when she does, it comes off really badly. But she doesn't do "inspiration" nearly as well as Obama either. So she's kind of stuck in a tough position.
It's outside of her control now. Campaign strategy can't fix things. IMO, it became outside of her control after the trouncing in South Carolina. The short interval to Super Tuesday saved her temporarily, but the shift in momentum was sealed by her not being able to close him out. If Super Tuesday had been 2-3 weeks after SC, Obama would have clocked her. Game over unless Obama stumbles. It's interesting how much respect she gets (because she's a Clinton) from the pundits who are so hesitant to admit the obvious. Hillary is done. Look for a couple of home run swings on Thursday in Austin. If she doesn't connect, start playing taps.
I agree. And I don't think the "b****" factor should be overlooked. If she goes negative, there is a significant number of men, in my opinion, who have a knee-jerk response... "What a b****!" If she were a man, it wouldn't get nearly the same response. I said some days ago that she was toast, but didn't know it yet. That still applies. I just hope Obama is going to be ready for what's facing him after he gets the nomination. Heck, it will start when he's the percieved nominee, before the convention, which should be any day now. Look for the crap to hit the fan. Endless made up garbage that'll be thrown at the wall to see what sticks. For all John McCain's claims over the years to be a "maverick," I expect him and the GOP to run a vicious campaign in the general election. Good luck, Barack. You're going to need it. Impeach Bush.
Basically that Hillary is still repeating the same old stuff (even tonight) that isn't working. What stayed in my mind particularly was, "How many times is she going to tell people she can withstand the Republican attack machine without focusing on hope instead?" BAM! The way she said it was kind of cold. There was other stuff but I can't remember. Sorry.
That's good thanks. I know the GOP attack machine aren't fully geared up right now, but just listening to McCain's preliminary swipes at Obama, it sounds like he's making the same exact ineffective attacks hillary has made.
Yeah - that's very possible. He probably benefits too from the "it's harder to attack the black guy" idea where people feel like they have to be a bit more careful there. We don't have enough women in national campaigns for me to really get a sense of its a universal woman problem or specific to Hillary, but this definitely could be a contributing factor. Yeah - McCain has already started his general election campaign with his talk about running against empty hope and the like. His message has been strikingly similar to Hillary's - I'm not sure that's the best tactic for him, but we'll see. I think one advantage Obama is going to have vs McCain is the massive difference in every way - race, age, policy, oratory skills, etc. These two are virtual polar opposites. And historically, the more charismatic politician has won all of the elections going back at least since Reagan (I don't know enough about the people before then) - so he has a huge advantage there. Plus, he's got so many people that either will vote for him or won't vote at all, so McCain's going to have an uphill battle there. But it does appear this is going to be headed to a quicker conclusion than most of us had predicted. They'll stay on the sidelines for now, but I suspect if Obama wins TX or OH, the superdelegates are going to flood to him as a message to her to get out.
The debate tonight was rather bland. While Obama improves with each and every one, he still isn't as good as Hillary. No decisive blows were landed. Is it obvious to everyone now that Hillary isn't going to scorch the Earth in order to try and win the Dem nomination? If she loses TX and OH, she will withdraw. The fight will NOT go all the way to the convention. Unless Obama stumbles hugely, the game is over. We can wait until after March 4th, but it might be time to start the thread on who Obama will choose for a running mate.
