[Long, Boring] LR mode and SR mode

I start this thread because I am really confused seeing the reactions at CF. The topic is the general strategy of organizations and its implications on trades. I will try to evaluate Morey's work based on my simple analysis. I will use some market efficiency theory and game theory implicitly but nothing rigorous. I will try to make it as simple and as clear as possible. I will avoid capology, because I am no expert on the topic. I will also not talk about financial consideration which of course is a simplification, but I think there is another facet people usually forget.

Let's start with two definitions.

Def. 1.: LR-mode A team is in LR-mode if it's rebuilding and its main concern is longer-run improvement.

Def. 2.: SR-mode A team is in SR-mode if it's targeting a championship win in the next 1-3 years.

I think I don't need to characterize what an LR and an SR mode roster looks like.

Uber Axiom Every player who have spent more than 3 years in the league are evaluated the same way by managements.

Uber Axiom 2 A team will only make a move if it finds the move beneficial for the mode the team is in.

Axiom 1. SR mode teams have conflicting interests: they are vying for a championship.
Axiom 2. LR mode teams have conflicting interests: they are vying for a championship in the future.
Axiom 3. LR mode teams share interest in talent evaluation.


Proposition SR mode teams generally don't trade with each other. If they trade, they generally trade role players, never star players and they are even reluctant to do that.

Why is that? An SR team wants to win now. To win now, you have to be better than your rivals. Teams only do trades if they are convinced the move will benefit them. But, that is well known. One can usually calculate whether a player can help the team win more. One can usually calculate the net effect of a trade on one team. One usually cannot calculate the net effect of the trade for both teams. It's quite simple: if two SRs trade with each other, they have to be pretty sure about themselves coming out as winners. There is no room for error, since they are in SR mode and since they have to be the relative winners of the trade.

The Spatial Distortion Observation Look at how the East and West have been the last 3 years. The West was full of stud/SR teams like the Lakers, Mavs, Suns, Rockets, Jazz and so on. These teams were in the same mode. That means no trade here. The East generally sucked, but we can say that most of the teams there were in LR mode, except for Cleveland, Boston and Orlando (and sometimes Atlanta).

Because of the Axioms, we have a simple proposition: it is more likely that SR teams and LR teams trade with each other. So, generally we will have good players going West and young guys and picks heading to East these last few years.

The Rockets in the meanwhile lost two of their star players. For those who are intrigued by the what could-have-been: since we were in SR mode, there were very few teams to exchange star players with. (They couldn't calculate the outcome and they were right to not trade with us anyway.) Teams in LR mode had no interest in grabbing McGrady since they were improving their prospects and did not need a huge payroll taking up capspace. The Rockets effectively went from SR - SLR mode which is they tried to get prospects while hoping on Yao. Why? Because noone would take over Yao. Why? Because Yao is a risky thing and SR teams do not need huge gambles, they need small gambles since they have the key pieces. LR teams simply don't need Yao because it is certain that Yao won't be a huge factor in 2013 and on. None of this has anything to do with Morey.

Let's consider this trade deadline. We are in limbo now. There were two ways to take. The Gerald Wallace way (remember, the Bobcats are an LR team with a player who is more suited for an SR team)? Sure he was cheap for what he is now. But what do we do with his contract? We would be stuck in SR mode without any key pieces to build around and teams would treat us as such.

Deron Williams? Why would Utah trade with us? The declared going into LR. Since Deron is young (has like 8 years in him) if they trade to us, we will interfere with their plans in the LR. (We're also semi LR, remember?)

Carmelo? Same thing.

So what happened to the Rockets? We were SR until 2009 December when it became obvious that Tracy won't ever be a key piece again. Since Morey did heck of a job before to create a good SR team around Yao and Tracy (remember because of the team's status, he had to stick with it) the team constructed of role players had a 42-40 season. Compare that to Cleveland which was an OK supporting cast losing approximately the same number of important pieces. Our team was well constructed and would've been a surefire contender had the injuries not happened. But we had no choice anyway. This year again, we put our hopes in Yao and he got injured and we were in SLR mode (with a worse chemistry) until the deadline. Now it is official: we are in LR mode.

One more interesting application of the "model" (which is nothing but a statement of trivialities in an organised way). Now many teams in the West have gone LR the same year: Denver, Utah and Houston. OKC will bloom before these teams. LAC is in LR mode too, but coming close. The SR teams that are in the West now are question marks. If e.g. Dallas can sell Nowitzki high to an eastern team who wants to join the arms race, then they will be in the group with us. The situation of LAL and SAS is something else, but I've ran out of time, so maybe I'll post later about them.

 

One thing that I didn't post:

What is to be learned? Well, obviously something cyclical is going on. We were in the SR pack when everyone was there (reducing our chances to win the west, therefore the Ch'Ship) and we are in the LR pack when some of the teams decided to go LR (not tank mind you). A much better way of winning is going against the tide: becoming a crap team when other teams are strong and becoming strong when the competition is lower. Sure it is not the epic way of winning, but even if you are epic, Phil Jackson comes and talks **** about it, so noone should care about being epic.

I'm not promoting mediocrity, I'm just saying that the most important thing to do would be to get off the tide and strike when it's the most appropriate. A lot depends on injuries of course and the draft classes that come out when an SR arms race is going on in the West.

 

I think you did your best to elaborate your point, I completely sympathize with your lobotomized state.

 

Yep they committed themselves. With three players like Aldridge, Camby and Batum on the team you cannot suck so much to make those picks really valuable. I guess what they are trying to do is stockpile assets to supply the arms race going on in the East. I think they are planning to make moves in the summer. They have the same problem we have except they have a stud player (the other two got destroyed by injuries). No easy road to take. Anyway that's why I respected Morey's decisions. Morey was in an extremely tough situation, made a tough choice and I think he chose the right direction. We could've changed places with Portland, there were talks about Camby and Wallace. People would be more excited I'm sure.