I really think there are lot more 3rd tier LLE money SG or SF/SGs available that can help us than 3rd tier LLE money PGs at this point in FA. If we are choosing someone like this player instead of the available PGs for an LLE like Dickau or Lue (Watson will get a lot more), I think the available swingmen would help us more. Thus we should target some of the more athletic 2/3s to compliment Barry and Bowen as our back-up swingmen. IMO the ideal is a poor mans Mario Elie, good hard nosed all around player who does everything pretty well and can stick the open 3. Here are ones that that the LLE or vet min might get us a chance at (not Finley when he is released later today). (I assume we lux tax waive or waive Ward to make room--we need to do both to bring back Deke + Baxter + this player)) Remember this is for an LLE. We are just looking for a guy to provide depth and contribute (15-20MPG). Next year we have a full MLE to go for bonified starting SG to replace Wesley/Barry, this year's guy would also hopefully provide depth to that player in 06-07. NAME TEAM STATUS HT WT age gp mpg ppg fg% 3% 3pa FT% ST. BL. RB AS a/to pps +/- e-jump Ger.Wallace… CHA rfa 6-7 220 23 70 31 11. 45% 27% 0.9 66% 1.7 1.3 5.5 2.0 0.9 1.22 +4.2 34% Keith Bogans. CHA rfa 6-5 215 25 74 24 9.6 38% 33% 2.3 73% 0.9 0.1 3.1 1.8 1.1 1.04 -2.0 41% Dem.Johnson. DEN Ufa 6-9 201 25 71 17 7.1 50% 36% 2.1 79% 0.6 0.3 2.1 1.1 1.2 1.36 +5.4 49% Greg Buckner. DEN Ufa 6-4 210 28 70 22 6.2 53% 41% 1.7 78% 1.1 0.1 3.0 1.9 2.1 1.43 -1.3 52% James.Jones.. IND rfa. 6-8 220 24 75 18 4.9 40% 40% 2.2 86% 0.4 0.4 2.3 0.8 1.3 1.17 -.04 50% Maurice Evans SAC rfa 6-5 220 26 65 19 6.4 44% 33% 1.3 76% 0.6 0.1 3.1 0.7 1.3 1.12 -4.4 41% Devin Brown.. SAS rfa 6-5 220 25 67 19 7.4 42% 37% 1.8 79% 0.6 0.2 2.6 1.4 1.70 1.21 -9.0 43% DamienWilkins SEA rfa 6-6 225 25 29 18 6.3 44% 27% 2.00 62% 0.8 0.3 2.3 0.9 1.6 1.09 -12. 38% Ronald Murray SEA rfa 6-4 190 26 49 18 7.0 36% 25% 1.9 74% 0.6 0.2 2.0 1.3 1.10 0.95 -12. 34% Kareem. Rush. CHA Ufa 6-6 215 24 48 20 8.0 39% 37% 2.9 77% 0.4 0.1 1.9 1.4 1.5 1.01 -0.3 45% NAME TEAM STATUS HT WT age gp mpg ppg fg% 3% 3pa FT% ST. BL. RB AS a/to pps +/- e-jump Derr Anderson Por Ufa 6-5 195 31 47 26 9.2 39% 38% 3.2 81% 0.8 0.1 2.7 3.0 2.0 1.10 -0.4 43% Latrel Sprew Min Ufa 6-5 195 34 80 31 12.8 41% 33% 2.6 83% 0.7 0.3 3.2 2.2 1.4 1.06 -4.4 42% Dion Glover career Ufa 6-5 228 27 294 21 8.2 41% 32% 1.6 76% 0.8 0.2 3.1 1.5 Other/injury checkouts: Kittles/Houston/McKie/Peeler Other flyers (less data): Travis Hansen, Billy Thomas, Damone Brown OVERALL IMPRESSIONS AND OTHER NOTES I'd strongly consider the best LEE offer (2 years 3.5 mil with player option in year 2) towards a few players. In particular, Buckner, Jones, Wilkens and maybe Dermarr Johnson. I think someone was offering Wilkens double this so it really isn't feasible (they may be overpaying, he did look good in the playoffs, but his season was so-so). James Jones is restricted and Indy is likely to match, but we could test the waters. Both Buckner (coming off a career year, he had not shot near that well before) and Demarr are unrestricted, and it is doubtful Denver will keep both, an LLE has a particularly good chance to land Demarr IMO. I am not sure how tough/defensive oriented Demarr is, he doesn't rebound well for a 6'9 guy, but worth a look. Wallace is productive despite his shooting, but he will probably command more than the LLE (and is restricted) and would make more of supercharged- athletic Bowen who we already re-signed for the min, not a guy who can make you pay on the wing. Just very unlikely at this point for all these reasons. I think there is a good likelihood we will approach Mo Evans and Devin Brown--very much poor mans Mario Elie figures, including their frames and pre-NBA travels. Sac probably would not match a contract with Evans given their depth of similar but younger SGs under contract. Some reports suggest SA and Brown are at odds over money (Brown thinks he is worth more than the 1 mil offer), and in fact SA has also talked with Evans (who has his home in SA). If the Rockets wanted either guy they could probably get them away from their current teams with LLE deals. I think we have higher aims, but these guys are not bad fall backs and could probably give you 15-20 minutes of decent all around play. Taking them away from conference rivals or at least making those rivals pay full price if the match is an added bonus. I really don't want Flip Murray, even if we could land him with an LLE. He is overpriced based on productivity from a spell over a year ago when no-one knew how to play him, and his jumper stinks. If your were going to get a jumper challenged guy, Wallace at least would be a lot more of a force in other phases (blocks, rebounds, steals, up tempo guy). Rush I am not that impressed with either in terms of being a complimentary piece to the current roster. Good shooter, but very light on the rebounds and nor any kind of defensive presence. Granted Barry is much older, but he does what Rush does only better. Anderson was productive, but he is going to get more than the LLE and is questionable chemistry wise. Rather get the workman with a little less talent like the ones above You can really tell Spree fell off last year--it is easy to see why teams are not lining up for him. I'd be surprised if he did get over 3 mil this year, LLE could get it done. FINAL RECC I were the Rockets I would have already talked with Buckner. Still, it is not too late. We could offer or negotiate an LLE, forcing Denver's hand to committ to him. Since these guys are unrestricted and Denver does not have Full Bird or even Early Bird rights, they would have to at a minimum commit to use their LLE (if they have it) or break into their MLE to keep pace. The fact we approached them 1st, no Texas income tax, and more PT, could make Den really have to pay to keep them. It would have been even better two weeks ago (Aug 1), forcing Denver's hand before the lux tax amnesty cuts, but I guess we were waiting to see what was available too. Now if Denver keeps Buckner or another team offers him more, we can move to Demarr, or Evans or Brown if we like them better than Dermarr for defensive reasons (I think Denv probably will re-sign Buckner but not Dermarr). I think any of these 4 could be likely, plausible, choices. If none of these work out, we could give Glover (or maybe Bogans) a trial in training camp to earn a two year vet min deal with a team option. I think working out McKie or Kittles and see if they are healthier this year is also a better option than considering other former star vets like Spree/Anderson--and before I looked more at these very poor numbers for him last year I had thought Spree might work out for us.
I was very high on Buckner before, but that was when I thought we could get Damon Stoudamire. He would be the defensive stopper, damon would be the quickness, and both could hit the three, although buckner has to be WIDE open. With both buckner and sura out there I don't think we have enough athleticism, which is what we're striving for next year. Demarr would be my choice if we're sticking with our current PG's. He's very athletic and a good shooter too. He's not a defensive specialist like buckner, but his height gives him a good advantage. I honestly don't think we can get either for the LLE. The LLE is likely going to land us a washed up old veteran, or we won't use it.
Nice analysis DS. I would love Wallace or DerMarr. Buckner would be nice too. The Bobcats would match if we offered Wallace the LLE. The fact that Denver has not offered one of their guys a deal tells me they want to find someone better and their fall back plan is to re-sign them, probably for 1-2 year deals. I think we could get one. All this ofcourse is if we trade and get some roster space or cut some players.
Gerald Wallace has the potential to be much better than 3rd tier. I also like Kareem Rush. I know, he's an ex-Laker.....but he has really nice size and scoring ability all the way to the 3 point line. Hmmmm.....I do like Buckner, but I don't think he is the caliber of player as he was when he was with Dallas. Or maybe that he's just not getting the minutes. Flash in the pan?
Great post, DS. Knowing how they like experienced players, I'm guessing the Rockets are targeting Gary Payton for the LLE.
Scar: That was a very good analysis, and I know it took alot of work to put together. Thank you for the effort. I am personally a DerMarr Johnson fan ever since I watched him bomb us to death in Denver last year. He would be a change of pace when teamed with DW that could give other teams matchup fits IMO. Plus he can slide to the three. I think 83games.com rated his defense acceptable. I've heard the Rockets have been after him for a couple of years now. Maybe if we offered a starting position he would come for LLE 2-year deal with second year player option. As an aside, he was seriously injured for a year so his upside may be better than the others. He is really almost coming off his rookie year.
as of right now I don't see us signing anyone. if we make a cut today then it will look as if we would try to sign someone or just make room for baxter/glover.
Demarr would be nice, but i dont think Denver would do us any favors. The Rox have something to trade for its just a matter of finding the right team at the right price. Wallace would be nice and i would like to have him also, but the money we have isnt going to make it work. It would be nice if we could use spoon and a 1st to get Wallace and Knight. Another guy would be Mason from Mil who might be caught up in a numbers game. Eddie Robinson, Lee nailon are also guys who can slide tracy back over to the 2.
I think Wallace would have made a lot of sense to trade for, but that was before the Bowen signing. Wallace does have a lot of upside, but with the questionable jump shot, probably not worth trading for. Like you said he potentially could be better than 3rd tier, thus more expensive. I see Rush as only a shooter, and not as good as Barry at that. I think a more defensive oriented but rounded out player is the kind to add in the mix. Buckner's best year by far is last year. I't could be a flash in the pan, but at 2 years 3.5 max contract--the LLE isn't much risk if he regresses next year. Denver did bring back Leonard for no small some. Both Dermarr and Buckner are unrestricted FA due a big raise and Denver does not have Bird Rights, thus would have to break into their own exemptions. I don't think Denver will want to pay them both in the neighborhood of 2 mil per season and killing their MLE. At 1.7 mil per season (no state income tax, potential important role on a great team) we can offer either, we can put pressure on them. I'd much rather go with Mo Evans or Devin Brown than Robinson or Nailon. Full LLE probably gets it done with either. Likewise Glover or someone like Bogans for the vet min I'd probably prefer than Robinson or Nailon. If we want to go vet, we can try McKey or Kittles.
Check out our basic 9-man rotation as it stands right now: Sura Wesley McGrady Swift Yao James Barry Howard Mutombo If we do add another player through free agency, he'll probably just be a 10th man or insurance if somebody gets injured. With that in mind, I think we'd be best suited to another Ryan Bowen type who won't worry about playing time, but will make the most of his time on the floor and will bust his butt in practice. Anyone immediately come to mind?
Wallace gets steals and blocks like a poor man's Kirilenko. I'll pick him up next year again on my fantasy team... for some reason, based on those stats alone, I think he would be worth a gamble...
johnson, buckner, evans, brown are all good picks. if we don't make a cut then i highly doubt that we will use the LLE.
Man O man, check out that front line! C: Yao/Deke PF: JH/Swift or Swift/JH SF: T-Mac/any living creature That's the best in the league. When you look at depth, our backcourt is in fine shape also, we just have too much dead weight. I'm not even sure we will use the LLE. Johnson or Buckner from the Nuggs would be OK with me. If not one of them, don't use it and save it for next year. Desert Scar, if we use the LLE on a player that gives us 15-20 MPG, either we are in big trouble or got the steal of the summer.
If we are going to award the LLE to anyone, please register my vote for DerMarr Johnson (truly). It's time for the Rockets to step up to have a big Johnson to be matched with a little Head.
I don't know, most of those guys (Johnson, Buckner, Brown, Evans, could add in Jones and Wilkens, but they are longer shots that we could land them with an LLE) were on playoff teams and averaged about 20 MPG last year. All of them made less than the MLE, most of them the league min. If we got a guy like this I figure we could give him 10-12 minutes at back-up SF (get Tmac more rest, Bowen is out of the regular rotation) and say give him 5-8 minutes at the 2 guard. Keep Tmac and Wesley much fresher than last year. Buckner I would guess would have a chance to start at the 2. But mostly I am looking for 2/3 depth and more athleticism in a decent but not special player. I think it is feasible and possible. If I was a young or in my prime hungry 2/3, the Rockets--where I could fight for a lot of PT and maybe starting spot on a title contender this year and next--would be my first choice among equal (LEE type money) offers.
JYD, he plays hard, rebounds well, could be another hustle guy, although I doubt he would come that cheap.
Nice analysis. I think some of those guys are more available than others though. From what I have seen from DerMarr I am not that much of a fan. He has a nice shot but isnt all that quick and isnt that good defensively. I guess he is a poor man's Walt Williams. And I guess off the bench he might be nice. I dont know. But I have see Mo Evans play a fair amount for the Kings and I loved watching him play. He is rather athletic and a hustler. He could end up being that athletic 2/3 we want to add behind Tmac. Damien Wilkins is also pretty good but chances are he will get a richer deal somewhere else. Ditto with Gerald Wallace. I like James Jones but he is more of a true 3 than a 2/3 and the Pacers want to resign him.
I don't really like Buckner. Great defense, sure, but I don't trust his offense and he needs to be taller. For me, someone who can play backup 3 is crucial. I put it above finding a "true" 1. I wouldn't trust Wallace's offense, either, but I would obviously take him for his athletecism and steals/shotblocking. I really like James Jones, Devin Brown, and Mo Evans (although Brown and Evans are a little short). I am not sure Jones is attainable, but I think there is a very decent shot of Brown and/or Evans being there for us. I would definitely settle for Johnson. He would be solid with a better attitude. Even after his accident, he has a ton of offensive skill. If he was aggressive, he could come in in bursts and have the green light while he was in. That way, rebounding and defense wouldn't be as glaring. As he is, though (timid and/or apathetic), he would just be a fallback. Although, after a slow February, he really seemed to pick up his game towards the end. perhaps a pushing coach such as Karl helped him out? If so, then he could be better here (Karl always ends up with players that hate him, Van Gundy doesn't). I just really hope we don't use our roster spot just opened up by Spoon by signing Payton. ANY of the guys on Scar's list would be better for us.
Hmm, I was going to say that I'd rather keep the money for now and wait but looking at our roster . . . Sura/Wesley/Tmac/Swift/Yao/ James/Barry/Howard/Deke Head/Bowen/Baxter it's clear our biggest need is an athletic/defensive swing man. if we can get someone that will come here to play a hard nosed 10-12 mpg, to be the stopper type player that can change momentum on the defensive end, that's what need. I'd like to see what McKie has left and talk to buckner.
