Lineup Data - 15 games in.

KMJs slashing and blocking brings a whole new dynamic to the lineup. When pair him with Eason and Garuba, they really cause havoc on defense because they are all so active

 

I suspect moving EG out and popping in KJ is going to move mountains for this group defensively.

With Sengun, 2 of Tari/KJ/Jabari should always be in the game so we have multiple weakside shot blockers.

 

So Garuba is the defensive anchor at C for our best defensive lineup. Also, Jalen Green is in our best defensive line up which is great news.

Unhappy with Sengun's net impact (offense minus defense) stats not just here but all over the place. Either his defense has to catch up or his offense has to get even better so that he's a winner on the court. There have been many players who could get double doubles but can't start/star in the NBA. The passing and 3pt shooting are so important now because his defense seems like it will need significant time to improve.

 

I would take it a step further and also look at line-ups that have a positive NETRTG overall (which there are 6 of, at least based on this criteria), especially since the 5th and 6th best line-up aren't too far apart.

1. KJM and Eason are both in 5 of the 6 positive NETRTG lineups.
2. Green and Garuba are in 4 of the 6 positive NETRTG lineups.
3. KPJ and Gordon in 3 of the 6 positive NETRTG lineups
4. Sengun and Nix are in 2 positive NETRTG lineups.

 

The biggest and obvious take is that the most used our starting 5 does not do a good job and we should try the other line ups more and see where they go.

I think it is more informative to look at the fives as composed of group of players, rather than looking to see how many of the lineups has a certain player. The starting five has no hustle players and Sengun & Jabari is a bad defensive duo. Sengun has only two line-ups without Jabari that has logged more than 20 minutes and both have positive ratings, with one being the best lineup.

The second, third and fourth best 5s all have the big 3, Garuba-Tari-KMJ and the best line-up and the fifth both have two of the big 3, So it looks like, we need to mix the defensive hustle guys with the offensive talent.

I don't think the fifth will have positive rating in the long run, just did well in 10 minutes, can be ignored from the analysis.

 

My lineup data = play all the young bulls from past two drafts inclusive with KPJ/Tate to see who is who and what is what going forward on building towards a playoff / ship contender

Send Gordon home or give him the Kawhi load manage treatment and only play Matthews if needing a 3 or late game free throw squad

 

Playing against starting groups more often is obviously going to hurt your net rating. As with all stats, these should be taken with context.

Throw Garuba with the starters and watch the net rating of those lineups plummet.

 

Of course this is true in general. We are not just comparing our starters to our bench players though. The most used 5 has a net rating of -16.1. That says they are unplayable. And if you look at the rankings they are one of the worst starting 5s, while our bench is performing above average compared to the benches of the rest of the league.

This matches the eye-test easily as well. The most used 5 has a 4 players with the highest turnovers. Sengun, KPJ, Green all have defensive problems. Jabari has not contributed much and has not helped Sengun on defense as expected (he is not ready yet, not trying to play him down). KPJ and Gordon are the two main ball stoppers in the team.

 

When you're on the bench, you face bench players. When you face starters, your teammates are starters so it eases the jump. When you face bench players your teammates are bench players, so it puts a damper on your ability to generate wins. It all roughly evens out give or take some minor adjustments (like if the gap between your starters and bench is extremely wide or depending on how your team staggers starters). The only thing that doesn't transfer from bench to starter is iso creation ability and that's not a part of his game at all.

Garuba has never not been promoted to play with the more senior team than his age group since he was 12 years old. Every team he's played on at every level wins more when he plays more (Real C, Real B, Real A and Spain). Every single coach he's ever had has said this guy should be promoted early. At 20 years old when Garuba is in an NBA game, he is always guarding a starting level scorer, that's the kind of faith coaches have in him. It would require a mountain of opposing evidence to disregard this evidence. Sagging off him at the 3pt line is not working anymore and when he gets the ball, it goes where it should go quickly and precisely. It has never ever gone well for anyone who has said: "let's see if he can deal with a more difficult role." He has aced every such assignment, except when it comes to his diet.

His intangibles and defense are incredible and he understands his offensive limitations. Be happy, we have a winner on our hands and there is 0% chance he won't improve his defense and offense at 20 years of age.

 

If we specifically look at only positive NETRTG 5-man lineups, with at least 15 minutes played, there is a very clear trend.




There is a possibility that the Goon squad is performing well not necessarily only because they are playing well, but anytime the Goon squad is on the court, the Rockets are not fielding a 3-guard lineup.

Jabari Smith's struggles do play into this, but a 3 guard line-up doesn't make a lot of sense since both KJ Martin/Eason play a vital cutter/glue guy role, and they do not demand shots (whereas you need to portion shots out for 3 SGs on the court). A 3 guard line-up means you are not utilizing the strengths of your players, but then again Silas kept Green and KPJ glued together for most of the season despite the fact Green seems to thrive a lot more without KPJ.

 

I like that the top lineup is KPJ, Green, KMJ, Eason, Sengun. It makes a lot of sense that it's one of the top lineups.

I'd be interested to see a lineup of

KPJ
Green
Eason
Garuba
Sengun

 

Agreed. All I am saying is to apply context.

Additional context: These are kindergartners who are not currently what they will be in a few years.

A bad net rating wouldn't dissuade me from playing certain groups for developmental purposes.

 

Apart from the bad rating,

- I just don't see any value playing Gordon with the rest.
- I see a lot of developmental value mixing up KPJ-Green-Sengun-Bari with KMJ-Tari-Garuba

 

It is going to be a good day for all parties when EG is shipped to a contender.

I'd also like to experiment with Usman as the primary PF behind Jabari.

 

analytics dumbalytics...

 

So you’re saying that 2 20 year olds, a 19 year old without a point guard do not have a good net rating against other starting lineups in the NBA? Thank you for the info

 

Said it before but - Sengun's getting penalized for having to go against other team's all NBA talent and the bench mob of Martin-Garuba-Eason gets to go against the Davis Bertans of the world.

This same thing happened last year w/r/t Green and Sengun. Sengun looked great lineup wise - bc he got to come on after the rockets were down 10+ and the opposition essed up

Too bad Jabari was drafted so high bc he could do with a stint going against other team's #2 and 3 guys.

It doesn't "all roughly even out" . That's wrong. Some guys have drastically different lineup #s and efficiency #s based on who they play with and against. See the Warriors this season for example, Sengun YoY, many other examples.

 

Also should say - Gordon needs to sit his ass down

 

KPJ, Green, Tari, KJ, Sengun should start.
With Usman, Jabari, Gordon and another guard-Nix by default being the main rotational guys.
I’d personally like to see Green, Tari, KJ, Usman, Alp lineups too, just to see what it can look like. Two facilitators, 3 hustle guys that play good D and can space floor. I still see Garuba as a 3/4 that can play 5