There is all this worry over global markets, communism, contracts, etc and this is supposed to be the Rockets forum, NOT the Hangout! Thing is, this is a risky business and sometimes you just have to say...no, nevermind. What I meant to say was that what will you say if, in 3 years, Yao is the great player we all hope he is and the problems with China are minimal, will the risk have been worth it? What if we decide not to take him and New York ends up basking in it? And, worse, if we pass and Yao is the real deal, will we sit around and complain that we didn't have the nuts to pull it off? We always want to be mentioned in the same breath with New York, Chicago and LA. The way to do that is to roll the dice. You can't be the hero if you are afraid of being the goat. Even if we fail, at least we went for it. No one could accuse us of being less-than-ballsy and that is important. Taking risks is what makes people successful. If we don't step up and take a chance, someone will take that chance away from us and I don't want us to be the 100-pound weakling getting sand kicked in his face.
or to put it another way.. No Guts, No Glory! I think we take Ming and pray everyone stays healthy next year. I wanna take this rare posting opportunity to thank everyone for their takes (pro and con) on this issue. I would never have the time to find all the info that is posted here.
Yes,i couldn't agree more,too!Last night i asked me a question:What will be if we pass on Yao and the Knicks or another tem will end up with him!2 Possiblities: 1.We trade him,let's say to NY for Spree and their 7.Soon Yao Ming puts very good numbers with 26 pts,16 reb and 4 bpg and we sit around staring on the TV screen saying:"Man,why did we pass on Yao!" This would makes me sick!Sprewell is injured and we are again around 30 wins in the season. 2.We trade him again,again to Dallas for Finley and LaFrentz.Soon we will see that Ming is a scrub,has problems inthe USA and LaFrentz is destroying him in Games against Dallas! That were the two possiblities,which came to my mind last night!Man,i couldn't sleep!!!!!!I think that the first could be true!****,i'm not sure what to do with the first pick!It sounds bad,but sometimes i wish,we would have ended up with the 5th and draft Woods or the best SF avalilable,that would make some things much easier!But **** it,we hae the first,and i'm also happy about!
Jeff -- I respectfully disagree... You don't throw out all logic in the name of being a risk-taker. Every NBA draftee is a risk...every single one. They could get injured...they could take the money and run...they could end up being criminals...they could end up not having what it takes in crunch time, etc. But Ming's risks aren't about that...the risk of taking Ming is that he might not ever actually play for you at all...he is not in control here...the Chinese government is. And it is quite possible the Chinese government may say, "no...you're not playing for the Rockets"...or they might say, "ok...you've played for the Rockets for 2 years...you're coming home now!" I don't think these are "chicken little" concerns...these are very real possibilities! IN ADDITION to those concerns, are the same concerns we have for every other player in the draft....EXCEPT THEY'RE AMPLIFIED BECAUSE NO ONE HAS SEEN THE GUY PLAY AGAINST REAL NBA COMPETITION! The list of guys above seven feet who have had tremendous impacts on the game of basketball is a VERY short one. Guys this tall have names like Eaton, Nevitt and Bradley. And the problem is further amplified when you know for a fact the guy can't even participate in training camp. If anyone needs NBA training camp, it's this guy...and he won't be able to participate. Before we ever got the first pick in the draft, I think we almost all agreed here that this was the most important offseason the Rockets have faced in a LONG time! To risk taking a guy who NEVER plays a minute for your team (not because of injuries or something like that..but because his home government won't let him or will cut him short) is too great a risk. The Rockets have more than just one need to address....they can likely address those needs through trade of that number one pick. Keep in mind...there's risk in that too....but at least we can trade for a proven commodity...and maybe maintain a high draft pick as well to pick up a quality player from a pretty deep draft. We took a chance last year with Eddie Griffin...the jury is still out. The Rockets need to win THIS YEAR!!! The Nets were able to address that issue by trading for draftees ready to contribute right away. Those are the kinds of players the Rockets need if Tomjanovich and Dawson hope to be employed for the Houston Rockets after this coming season.
I agree with MadMax. The real issue is how accurate the non-basketball problems really are. Les has shown in the past that he's kind of a surly negotiator so I wonder what he's thinking right about now. Les doesn't seem the type to put up with a lot of this kind of baggage.
I know all that. We all do. More than any of us, I'm certain the Rockets are KEENLY aware of the situation. My point was that you should know the facts but not let every "possibility" dissuade you from making a decision that could be extremely beneficial. I think we may not be giving the Rockets enough credit here. No one understands the dangers of risk more than a bond trader (Les Alexander). I seriously doubt they are entering into anything like this with blinders on assuming only the best will happen. I assure you that is not in Alexander's nature. Yeah, but what's more important, the jobs of the staff or the success of the team? I'm as big a fan of Rudy as they come, but would I trade him for championships down the road if it meant sucking this year too? Damn right. It is the nature of the game. The Nets needed bodies. They were in a unique situation. Drafting Jefferson and the others would not have put us in the playoffs last season and it is doubtful it would have sped us any closer to a championship. Griffin is a risk worth taking and Ming MIGHT be too. The problem is this...every great team in the history of sports has taken risks to succeed. There were some who thought the Lakers made a mistake by acquiring Jabbar. Bill Walton was just a broken down older player but the Celtics made him their sixth man and it got them rings. Everyone laughed at the Lakers when they traded Divac for some high school kid named Kobe Bryant - too big a risk. I would rather the Rockets be seen as willing to do what is necessary to improve even if it means rolling the dice and taking a gamble. Better that than a wannabe. Do you ignore the risks? Absolutely not. You research and research and research some more until you feel as comfortable as necessary to make it work for you. If it doesn't work out, fine. You move on. Notice that they are still bringing in other players. It isn't as if they have dedicated every waking moment to Yao. But, if you feel like you can manage the risk - if it is worth it - you HAVE to take that chance or you will be sitting around in 10 years wondering "what if?" I would rather regret something I did than something I didn't do. At least I know the outcome of that situation.
I agree with you that the Rockets are doing the background work on this...the problem is they have no idea what the Chinese government will ultimately do...whether it be this year..or the next...or the next.... The risk is too great! I agree with you about Les's background being a great help...there's no doubt that's true. But the Chinese do business VERY differently than we do business here in the States. And the Chinese government is not exactly respectful of anyone's rules but its own. I think the risk is too great to use a #1 pick on...it's not every year you win the lottery. You're right...I think Griffen was the right choice...but I don't think he'd be the right choice this year. This team needs to win sooner rather than later. We don't have time to develop a guy who you think might be the best player 3 years from now. They're going into a new arena...they have an eroding ticket base...they were second to last in attendance...the introduction of the Texans is imminent. And as for what's more important, the success and stability of the coaching staff or the success of the team...while I agree in the abstract, you must also recognize that the coaching staff consists of the people who will be making this decision!!! And they're smart enough to see the writing on the wall, I'm sure. I'm certain that will influence their decision. Taking Walton wasn't near the risk that this is...neither is trading Divac for Bryant...not even close. It's apples and oranges. And I would also disagree that every great team took risks to assemble themselves...the Rockets of 94 were built over a course of years. Taking Hakeem was a risk...taking any player is a risk!...but nothing like taking a guy whose home government may pull the rug out from under you at any time. This is like signing a free agent when the team you sign him from still has the right to pull him back at any time. That's just too great a risk for a team like the Rockets. Why does taking any player other than Ming mean the Rockets aren't willing to do what it takes to improve??? I would argue that they are more likely to improve immediately by adding a Caron Butler and someone we could pick up in a trade. If the Rockets are averse to drafting Ming it shouldn't necessarily be spun that they don't have the balls to be great...or that they're not committed to improving. There are real issues surrounding Ming...and whether or not he's worth those issues is still a mystery. Of course they should continue to evaluate him...but ultimately, I'm not convinced he is worth those risks. Would you take these risks if you knew he was Shaq??? If you thought you could get Shaq...but that Shaq could be pulled away from you at any point in time...that he might never even wear your team's jersey...even if you knew he was that talented, would you spend the draft pick??? I mean, to me "rolling the dice" isn't a fair analogy....this is dealing with the Chinese government which has their own goals and aspirations here. If Ming takes a while to develop, will they pull him out to save face...if the Rockets face more injuries next year and the team sucks, will they pull him out??? All of these are very real possibilities!!
Two points MadMax, hopefull without repeating myself, too much: If he is signed by us and not a free agent, no other team can have him. It is that simple. There is no way a court of law would allow him to switch teams against contractural obligations. Stern would have to majoring compensate us with like two #1s in a row, because we'd be going to court. There are already indications over a year that the signing of Yao will accompany a longterm revenue sharing/business agreements with the NBA and the CBA and Shanghai TV (owners of the Sharks with 100 million viewers) and other merchandising companies, etc. Maybe not immediately, but within a year. If Stern locks up that agreement, and all indications are that China wants to build their sports profits and markets as much as Stern does, you are saying that China would break a major business contract there, as well. Do you realize we have ex-Congressmen in China working on this for over a year, and NBA execs. They want to expand markets just like us. If the NBA increases revenues and merchandising by the ridiculous estimates of $1-2 Billion, and China's media Moguls owning the Sharks and the SINA team increase their own by broadcasting NBA games, you're are saying China's political leaders will just shoot themselves in the foot and ruin all that. I don't buy it. To me, the only fear is resigning him after 5-yrs, but that risk exists for all players, like McGrady and Jermaine O'Neil.
It doesn't work that way, Jeff. If you draft Ming, and he turns out to be a bust, you won't regret having drafted him; you'll regret NOT having drafted player X or trading for player Y who became the all star.
1. "if he is signed by us" -- yeah...if they allow us to sign him after we spend the #1 draft pick 2. we might draft him and the Chinese govt might say, "we don't like the rockets...we'll try next year!..we'd rather him play for a NY or LA." and if there is as much money in it for the NBA as you claim, Stern would bend over backward to make the Chinese happy with everything...including the team he plays for. 3. Do I think the Chinese are capable of breaching a contract...ummm..yes. So are Americans...but please understand that contracts in China and contracts in America are vastly different things. Don't apply your concepts of American/English contract law and business to the Chinese, because they don't play by those rules. That's not a judgment...that's just a cultural fact. 4. The Chinese government is in control here...not the Chinese businessmen...their concerns aren't the concerns of the businessmen there. This is a communist government, after all. 5. They may very well have every intention of having Ming playing here...expanding markets, etc....but that doesn't mean they have to do it through the Houston Rockets. And ultimately, they, not the Rockets, are the ones in control here.
First off, I think we all may be putting the cart before the horse on this one. Is there anyone here who honestly understands Chinese foreign policies, business practices and legal arrangements well enough to know, even with the slightest inkling, what is going to happen? I seriously doubt it. Given that we haven't even chosen him as a pick yet, it seems a tad premature to assume he won't or will be able to play. Trying to second-guess what the Rockets will even do in the first place is probably jumping the gun. On this point, who do you think will be a bigger draw in the new arena, Caron Butler or Yao Ming? Who do you think will sell more jerseys? Who do you think fans will be more excited about? I understand your risk arguments and they are very valid, but you cannot compare any other player in this draft to Yao Ming when it comes to filling seats, selling jerseys and marketing the team. This is a whole new ballgame. I'm sure Butler and Williams and Woods and many of the other young players are great and will be solid players. Some may even be better or safer picks than Yao. But, it is unfair to compare any of them to Yao when it comes to the potential to draw fans to a new arena or push merchandise. No one in this draft - maybe no one in the past 5 or 6 drafts - has the potential Yao does. Not even close. Pole: Well, I think just about every team says that EVERY draft. Sam Bowie instead of Olajuwon? All those guys ahead of Drexler and Jordan and Vince Carter? It is the nature of ANY draft to look back and see the possibilities and wonder.
It doesn't work this way. We would still have the draft rights based on "legal impediments" preventing Yao from signing a contract with us. As long as there are "legal impediments" (phrase quoted from our CBA) or the player is under contract elsewhere, we keep his rights. I don't care if they don't honor our laws, Stern must! We can hold him hostage from Stern. Stern will have to close that revenue sharing deal that China is after. He will not play for another team without our OK. Like I didn't know this. You are crying wolf. If the contract opens up huge markets and huge profit, you're saying they are just going to throw that away. Don't treat their businessmen like idiots. OK! Simply a huge overstatement. The Chinese govt is in control of Hong Kong now, too, but markets didn't dry up, did they. Contracts didn't get severed by the govt, did they? Show me the links. You must have been one of those who thought Hong Kong would be stormed with tanks. Sure the govt "controls" the CBA, but you are making way too much of this. Read this article and tell me why you think owners of the CBA aren't expected to turn profits and expand markets, and where does the govt try to prevent that? http://www.time.com/time/asia/biz/daily/0,9754,203602,00.html Read this article and tell me why China would let a Taiwan business man own a CBA team if they didn't want profit and want full control. And tell me why this Taiwanese business man would take the risk to run a team...the answer is because both sides consider it a marketing bonanza. Don't be so xenophobic about Chinese markets. http://www.china.org.cn/english/2001/Sep/19179.htm Read this one about the tension from Taiwan authorities over naming of the team, yet the team still joined the CBA. The owner of Sina (Daniel Chiang) apparently didn't care much about naming to let it interfere with him getting his team in China. http://english.cri.com.cn/english/2001/Dec/38882.htm You see, you are like the Taiwan Authorities posturing over the name with Chinese Authorities, but the team owner and the CBA still got the deal done. <i>CBA and Taiwan Sina began to discuss the possibility of Taiwan Sina joining the CBA league in August. <b>Actually, the issue is a win-win deal for both sides.</b> Competing with CBA teams which represent the highest level of the sport on the Chinese mainland, the long-time Asian hoop giants, Taiwan Sina, would play against the highest level teams in Asia. They have the benefit of entering the huge sports market in the mainland. For the CBA, a Taiwan team in the league is a good selling point because a new team with new faces can mean bigger audiences and more profits. </i> This is not the way NBA draft rights work. See answer to #2 above.
I can't agree more. Its a risk with any pick in the draft. No one can show me a player without a risk. About the most sure fire player is probably Williams, but we don't need him. Other than that we have players who had good college careers but people are over analyzing the players. Gooden is probably the most skilled 4 man in the draft yet, people are putting a guy who avg 10 pts a game over him in Wilcox. Jeffries practically carried his team in the tourney just like Dixon, yet he's a middle rounder and Dixon is probably a 2nd rounder. With success comes risk in everything. No one ever thought Hakeem would become as great as he did, but look what happened. What if the Rockets had opted for Bowie instead where would we have been? We need the best center availible and Ming is it, so whats the problem?
Houston Community College Chinese For NBA Coaches Homework Assignment 1: Food and Beverages Rudy Tomjanovich October 2002 Part I Translation: Welcome to Chinese Restaurant. please try your Nice Chinese Food With Chopsticks the traditional and typical of Chinese glonous history. and cultral. BAMBOO CHOPSTLCKS PRODUCT OF CHINA
ROFL, CBFC I hate those chopstick wrappers with a passion. As old as those things are, they still haven't changed after all these years.
Max, I think you may be misinformed about China and Shanghai. I have a classmate from Shanghai, and she's more "western" than most people I know. She has a definite shopping addiction, and a preference for designer cloths. She doesn't like to buy them here, though. She gets them when she goes back to Shanghai. They're cheaper Shanghai and there is better selection in Hong Kong. My point is that Shanghai may not be the backwater you think it is. It is a major business city with a very consumer and business oriented lifestyle. They know what contracts are. I don't see this as being very much different than dealing with a player who has a European contract, except there is less of a precedent for dealing with Chinese players so some of the same arrangements will have to be worked out again. Yao probably has a lot fewer of the other concerns you alluded to. He's not some punk kid full of attitude with a posse in tow. He's Chinese, which means he's almost certainly well educated, socially as well as academically. He apparently speaks English very well. He's played on the Olympic team, so he's played against some top players, better players than most college kids have. As for winning, if Francis plays a full season, the Rockets are a playoff team. Add Taylor, and they're better. Griffin is a year older too. If the Rockets draft pick doesn't play a minute next year, the Rockets are still in the playoffs. This year was an aberration. And from a profit standpoint, I think there just may be some money to be made selling Rockets television rights, paraphernalia, etc. to a market of millions of affluent Chinese. I think the risks associated with Yao are injury risks, or possibly that he doesn't adapt to the NBA as well as is hoped. If he is playing well here, there is no reason why the Chinese government would try to interfere? And if he's under contract, then he's under contract. I don't think they would interfere with that either. I'm sure some of the Chinese basketball people will hate to see him go, but they're adjusting to that with Wang and they'll learn the benefits that his popularity will bring to their sport in China. Edit: 1. "if he is signed by us" -- yeah...if they allow us to sign him after we spend the #1 draft pick 2. we might draft him and the Chinese govt might say, "we don't like the rockets...we'll try next year!..we'd rather him play for a NY or LA." and if there is as much money in it for the NBA as you claim, Stern would bend over backward to make the Chinese happy with everything...including the team he plays for. I'm sure this would be worked our before draft. Not only worked out, but contract signed. 3. Do I think the Chinese are capable of breaching a contract...ummm..yes. So are Americans...but please understand that contracts in China and contracts in America are vastly different things. Don't apply your concepts of American/English contract law and business to the Chinese, because they don't play by those rules. That's not a judgment...that's just a cultural fact. Well, I don't have specific information about how contract law works over there, but I suspect that it's based on British law. At any rate, particularly in Shanghai, they are a VERY business oriented culture. Consumer heaven, if you have the money, so making money is what it's al about. Conspicuous consumption is in vogue. For further contract information: http://www.qis.net/chinalaw/prccontract.htm 4. The Chinese government is in control here...not the Chinese businessmen...their concerns aren't the concerns of the businessmen there. This is a communist government, after all. That "C" word is going to bite you again Max. ;-) Saying that a government is communist is becoming meaningless at the best of times, but particularly so when discussing China. Hong Kong and Shanghai are communist cities. Technically true, but this fact won't get you very far in understanding what these cities are about. 5. They may very well have every intention of having Ming playing here...expanding markets, etc....but that doesn't mean they have to do it through the Houston Rockets. And ultimately, they, not the Rockets, are the ones in control here. Not nearly as much as you may think, I suspect.
Jeff -- Caron Butler will sell more seats in the long run if he assists in providing wins....Yao Ming will sell seats in the short term to see the freak show...but when the Rockets fans find Ming is merely sharing time with Cato at the center position, learning an entirely new way to play basketball and not significantly contributing immediately to the win column, that little novelty act will wear out. heypartner -- i know in other drafts, if a player never decides to sign with the team he's drafted by, that team loses his rights after a year. that's my point...i'm not sure if that's the case in the NBA, but I sure think that's the way it works. as for communist china...my point is merely that this whole scenario adds an entirely new layer of risk. I think it's far more likely that the Chinese are unhappy with his development in the NBA and pull him back then it is that he suffers a career-ending injury. And I'm like Taiwan??? please, man....spare me the theatrics....i'm simply restating some of the concerns shared by a ton of NBA executives who are heading into unchartered waters here. I'm not the first to say he's not worth the risk. By the way...the legal reality and the practical reality of a situation are not the same thing. Assume the Chinese govt breaches the contract and pulls Ming out in a year....great....do you really think the NBA is going to sue??? Do you think they'll allow the Houston Rockets to sue??? Particularly if they're as interested as you say in developing this market. I think it's highly unlikely. Oh, and by the way...you can't win specific performance from a court of law in this country for services contract. A little nuisance called the 13th Amendment keeps you from forcing anybody to work anywhere. All you get is some monetary compensation....that doesn't answer the Rockets' needs. Again...at the end of the day, the Rockets are not in control here. Grizzled -- im not trying to do some deep cultural analysis...but I can tell you right now I've represented more than a few Chinese individuals...they do not do business the way we do, and one of my clients (who has been in America for a while now) refuses to do business with other Chinese people for that very reason. I'm not saying it's "backwater"...just that cultures have different ways of going about things. And contracts mean different things in different countries...has nothing to do with laws...just entirely different ways of doing business. Hell, doing business in Mexico is VASTLY different than doing it here in the US. What is illegal here in the US (particularly greasing up politicians) is the cultural norm in Mexico and is out in the open. The "c" word is going to bite me again??? huh??? what does that mean??? They are a communist government...they're not biting anyone but Ming...and perhaps the Rockets, ultimately. It is quite atypical to have to negotiate with a government for the services of a citizen. It's ridiculous!! You can talk about how progressive they might be all you want...but it still leads you back to the fact that this guy can't wipe his ass without permission! They are ultimately in control...he is not...and neither are the Rockets. Believe me...if they want out of that contract, they're the freaking Chinese government, and they'll find a way out. Just as the rumblings are beginning that they're ready for Wang to come back...the same will be true of Ming if things don't go exactly as they hope.
MadMax When I said we would sue, I'm saying we would sue the NBA Office if Ming tries to play for another NBA, while we hold his draft rights. I never said we would sue China. I said China would not shoot itself in the foot if they are getting major revenues from a revenue sharing agreement with the NBA. They pull Ming, and breach that contract, and Stern stops paying them. They lose all the money for pulling Ming. Besides, I don't share your concerns that China pulls him back based on performance. They'll care more about the Mings profitability than Ming's bball performance. And that is my whole point. This is true, but not really. Kirilenko was drafted in 1999, and so was Wang, and each drafting team maintained their rights. To become a rookie free agent after being drafted, the player cannot play for any professional league for a year. Further, he also cannot have any "other legal impediments"-- a catch-all phrase providing broad legal interpretation in determining whether some outside force is preventing him from signing a Uniform Player Contract. Isn't that outside force the China Govt, in your opinion. Right now, Ming is under contract with the Sharks. If the Sharks or the CBA don't release him, then we retain his draft rights due to him being obligated to other teams; that's a fact. Even if the Sharks do release him, yet hold him back for other reasons, those will be considered "other legal impediments," as defined in our CBA. Ming has said he would sign with anyone. Clearly the Sharks and CBA are asking for more than a standard Uniform Player Contract; that qualifies as legal impediments in my book.
