I'm going to assume that Kubiak gets to make the call on the first pick. With that, we need to peer into his mindset. I think there's a lot more downside with him staying with Carr over Young. 1. If he stays with Carr - he better be right and they need to win quickly. Expectations will be a 7-9 season or so. Bush better not be a bust. After all, it was the coaches fault that we slid to 2-14. With Carr being coached up, and with 4 draft picks in the first 66, we should be able to get back to 7-9. Those will be the expectations, fair or not. After that, we better be in the playoff hunt. (nevermind what things would be like if VY goes nuts for the Titans) 2. If he goes with VY, the pressure's off. Expectations will be measured and we're basically starting over. Since the selection would be VY, the fans will be kind enough to give a "new honeymoon period." Enthusias will be at a new high - like when we did the expansion draft. VY won't be expected to do much until the 2nd half of 2006-2007 season, at the earlist. He takes the helm in 2007 full time . . . after we have completed the painful transition into a 4-3 defense. In short, Kubiak will decide what he thinks is best for the team. But I submit that there's a strong incentive for him to choose VY, an incentive that is best for him. Now, if Kubiak decides that VY is the right choice, can he sell McNair on it? I have to think that McNair didn't hire Kubiak only to tell him what to do with the most important decision.
We get Bush, we get better direction...the Texans should and I believe WILL improve to 7-9. If VY has nothing to work with and bad coaching direction, his first 4 years will be just as bad as Carr.
If we draft VY and Kubiak doesn't do a good job coaching him, what makes you think he would do better with Carr? I don't think there's an argument that VY possesses greater skills to be successful than Carr. If Kubiak drafts VY and can't get him to be an above-average to elite QB, I'd shudder to see how much further Carr would've fallen under him. Unless you meant bad coaching direction in Tenn, then I apologize
Not really buying that. My expectations, no matter what happens (Bush, VY, trade down, hell or high water, etc) are still going to be 6 wins. There's tons of people on this board who think Big Ben in Pitt is the greatest QB in the game because of his win-loss record.. If Ben can do it as a rookie, why can't VY? Oh, right... because the team is far more important than the QB. Also, why aren't you factoring in the defensive transition into scenario #1? If VY gets the benefit of doubt because of that, so should Carr, and the rest of the Texans offense. Everyone needs to cool their jets. This team sucks, and even with a good coach, may suck for another 2-3 years.
Pls keep in mind that this is my attemt to predict or capture what Kubiak is thinking and what fan expectations are/will be. Not an attempt to pass judgment on the thinking or expectation. I'm interested in analyzing the likely result. With that said, the defenisve transition is not really a factor in scenario 1. I don't think the fans will care about the defensive transition if we keep Carr. Keeping Carr will symbolize management/staff's statement that we can win now. The defensive transition to a 4-3 should impact expectations, but won't.
Vince Young myopia is really amusing. Can you put this "New Honeymoon Period" in writing for Mr. McNair and his investors? Not all of them bleed burnt orange. What about the trade down option, for those of us who want to do what's right for the team?
Well I'm sure McNair and his investors have enjoyed the Carr honeymoon that previous 3 seasons. This season was a perfect example of the honeymoon crashing to a screeching hault, 1/2 empty stadiums, booing, etc... Drafting VY will give the Texans another shot at starting over. Let VY sit on the bench for a year and I would still guarantee you that all the games will be sold out. People will be saying "just wait til' VY comes in," "We'll be really good next season, etc..." If you draft Bush and we don't improve to atleast 6-7 wins, the boo-birds will be out again and people will stop going to the games again. Of course, if we do win, then everything is solved. But drafting VY does give a little more slack for McNair and the Texans, not just from Longhorns, but for the city of Houston that wants to draft him. Where is the trade down option? That is definitely a viable option for the Texans and Kubiak.
As are the BushGoggles that lead to a landslide Heisman voting despite other worthy candidates and are apparent to a lot V-haters around here. That said, I don't agree with the premise of the initial post. There are major risks whatever Kubiak and the Texans do, picking neither VY (there are a lot of V-haters around Houston, getting you ass kicked over and over by him can do that) nor Bush is safe at all. The safest path is trading down for a boatload of picks including a stud OT like Dbrick or stud LB/DE. But then you have to love with what happens if VY or Bush blows up. It will be interesting.
Good point on my failure to include the trade down option. But now that I think about it, fan expectations will be based on whether we keep Carr. Again, if we keep Carr, he will be an ongoing symbol of management's message - we can compete now. Whether we draft Bush or trade down, expectations will still be high. And that's the angle I'm trying to analyze. I think fan expectations will weigh in favor of Kubiak taking VY. Gucci makes a great point. The recent memory of empty seats at Reliant will weigh heavily on McNair's mind. When he and Kubiak meet, he will have to ask Kubes - "How strongly do you feel that Carr is the guy?" Shoot, If Kubes doesn't give Carr a ringing endorsement, McNair should be thinking things over. By mid year, if we're flailing, people will be quicker to tune out. Fans will think, man, this is more of the same crapola (nevermind the tough schedule and change to the 4-3 defense).
Personally, I think Kubiak's input on the draft choice will definitely be solicited, and of all the "football" opinions, will definitely be given the greatest weight, but ultimately I think McNair will make this call. He's got several sources of info and advice now (Reeves, Casserly, Kubiak, scouts). I kind of see this season as a probationary term for Casserly in which McNair and co. will see how well the previous four years of talent perform under new coaching. If it is still highly subpar, then Casserly is gone. If not, then Casserly might then again be allowed to make football personell decisions without someone looking over his shoulder. But for this draft/free agency, it will be mostly McNair pulling the strings based on all the information he has flowing in. I couldn't really comment on what Kubiak will do, but I do think part of why he was brought in was to "fix" David Carr, and he is well aware of that. For that reason, I doubt he is pushing for us to draft a QB with the first pick. If he has a brain in his head at all (and I suspect he does), I think he is pushing to trade down. But if no good offer surfaces, I definitely see us taking Bush.
Neither Bush nor VY will do anything until this team gets an NFL caliber offensive line. Once they get that, then they need to start working on their defensive line.
The problem is it could be a decade before the Texans get a shot at talent like VY and Bush. It may be easier to build the Oline through free agency and the rest of the picks. This is the toughest and most important decision the Texans will make. Much tougher than drafting Carr, because I think this draft is even more top heavy in rarer, elite, prospects.
I think they are committed to Carr. But I suspect they won't be terribly interested in Bush. The entire Denver philosophy, and why they dumped backs like Portis, is that you make one cut and go upfield. They absolutely *HATE* the dance-around-until-you-find-a-hole idea - which is one of Bush's biggest strengths. I suspect in the end, we'll trade down, but who knows. That may also be a Shanahan thing as opposed to a Kubiak thing.
True. They are crazy as well. But which group tells more stories about (insert draft choice here) playing for the Titans and DOMINATING THE UNIVERSE???
Or more like 1 year with Adrian Peterson and Brady Quinn comming out. And yes, A healthy Adrian Peterson is a top 3 pick. You're kidding yourself if you think otherwise.
Except we as fans don't really know if the Texans have a decent line or not. That's part of why we hired Kubiack. If the O-Line's problem is coaching, then Kubiack and potentially Sherman should be able to turn it around. It's not as if we have no talent on the line. And the run-blocking is not half-bad. Now if only we can put in a solid pass-blocking scheme, we might not need a D'Brickashaw. Perhaps nabbing a lineman with a 2nd/3rd would suffice.
Well, other teams have experienced the phenomenon of getting a new Oline coach that suddenly gets great production out of players that were worthless in seasons past (San Diego a couple years ago comes to mind...Miami this season). Hopefully Mike Sherman comes in, and he plus whatever help Kubiak and his other Oline coach (forget the guy's name) will be able to get our unit to appear respectable, regardless of who we draft or sign.
He probably is. But there is no way AP and Quinn will be higher rated picks than RB and VY come the end of their Junior season.
