Katherine Harris for Senate

Looks like the GOP is thinking about the 2000 fiasco. Hmmm...
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G.O.P. Worries Face From Past Will Haunt Florida Senate Race
By ABBY GOODNOUGH, NYTimes

MIAMI, Nov. 25 — It would seem that the last thing President Bush needs as he seeks re-election next year is anything that reopens the profound wounds from the Florida presidential recount of 2000.

So it is little wonder that when Representative Katherine Harris, who became the globally known face of the recount as Florida's secretary of state, expressed interest in running for the Senate in 2004, Mr. Bush's advisers shuddered, Republicans say.

The image of Ms. Harris campaigning alongside Mr. Bush in Florida next fall, stirring up partisan memories and potentially driving Florida Democrats to the polls in record numbers, was one of the biggest factors the party considered as it reacted to the surprising news that Senator Bob Graham would not seek re-election, several Republicans in Washington and Florida said.

Republican officials in Washington and a close associate of Gov. Jeb Bush, the president's brother, said that with an energetic nod from the White House Mel Martinez, the president's housing secretary and a Cuban-American Republican from Orlando, began hinting within days of Ms. Harris's statement that he was seriously considering the race.

That news, and the timing of it, raised eyebrows in Washington and Tallahassee because earlier this year, Mr. Martinez said he would not run for Senate and would instead wait to run for governor in 2006.

But several lawmakers said his reversal made sense, given that Mr. Graham, a popular Democrat, had decided not to run and given the specter of a Harris candidacy.

"Katherine will energize certain forces in the electorate, when the president is on the ballot, that may not need to be reminded of what happened in 2000," said Representative Mark Foley, Republican of West Palm Beach, who dropped out of the Senate race in September because of a family illness. "I've told her, `I don't know how this will play.' "

Ms. Harris said in a telephone interview on Tuesday that she had not yet reached a decision, but made clear that she was aware of her potential toxicity for the Bush campaign and would not do anything to undermine his re-election. "I want to make certain I have a positive effect, not a negative one," she said.

As if these twists did not carry enough drama, some Republicans in Tallahassee and Washington said Governor Bush was initially miffed by what he saw as an effort by the White House to micromanage his state's politics by encouraging Mr. Martinez's candidacy.

In one example of its keen interest in the matter, the White House sent some of its political strategists to a meeting with Mr. Martinez and leaders of the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee days after Mr. Graham dropped out, Republicans in Washington and a close associate of the governor said.

The governor has repeatedly denied any tensions with Washington. But he has gone out of his way to stress that Mr. Martinez does not deserve favored-candidate status. When The Palm Beach Post asked him about a Martinez candidacy recently, Mr. Bush replied: "If he runs, he's going to have to earn it. This year we have had candidates who had the courage to run when Bob Graham was still in the race."

On Tuesday, when reporters in Tallahassee asked whether he and his brother had argued over the issue, Governor Bush said: "No, no. We're totally in sync."

But the governor also reiterated that while Mr. Martinez would be "a formidable candidate" he should not get special support. Mr. Bush has said that neither he nor the White House would endorse a candidate in the Republican primary next August.

"He's not going to be anointed," Governor Bush said of Mr. Martinez. "I've made it pretty clear that I think it ought to be an open process."

Several Florida Republicans said that while the governor recognized Mr. Martinez's strengths and probably wanted him to be the party's candidate he would never say so publicly because two of the announced candidates, including the House speaker, Johnnie Byrd, are state legislators whom Mr. Bush cannot afford to antagonize.

Governor Bush has said little publicly about Ms. Harris's potential candidacy, but his relationship with her is cool at best, many Republicans say, and as chairman of his brother's re-election campaign here, he would not want her to run.

Asked on Tuesday about a Harris candidacy, he said, "If she wants to get in, she'll have to earn it."

Ms. Harris has far more name recognition than Mr. Martinez, a former chairman of Orange County. A wealthy, fourth-generation Floridian, Ms. Harris is also at least as capable of raising money for what may prove the year's most expensive Senate race. Her supporters and even her detractors say it would be foolish to underestimate her strength.

"There is no question that a lot of Republican activists — conservative, moderate, you name it — think the world of her," said Jim Kane, director of Florida Voter, a nonpartisan political news and polling service.

Ms. Harris's spokesman said Tuesday morning that she did not want to be interviewed for this article, but she called in the afternoon to say that she was still weighing the request.

"This is not something I had really considered," Ms. Harris said, "but my phone has just not stopped ringing" since Mr. Graham announced that he would not run. She added that between her Congressional duties, she had been trying to determine whether her candidacy would hurt President Bush.

"I know that we conducted the recount honorably and we can prove it," Ms. Harris said. "On the other hand, perceptions are what they are and my top priority is for the president's re-election."

Ms. Harris said she did not have a specific time frame for making a decision. She said she had not talked with White House officials or Governor Bush about running, because "until I decide for myself what I want to do and have the facts in front of me, I just think it's premature."

Several Washington Republicans said that they thought Ms. Harris would announce she was not running if and when Mr. Martinez announced he was and that she was using a potential run as leverage to win assurances of backing for a 2006 race against Senator Bill Nelson.

"She's playing poker here and she's got a good hand to deal," a Republican lawmaker said.

Although Governor Bush was emphatic that Mr. Martinez was not the party favorite, other Republican lawmakers spoke fervently of his attributes. As a Cuban-American, they said, Mr. Martinez could mitigate what some Republicans call President Bush's "Cuban problem," the feeling among many Cubans in South Florida that he has not been hard enough on Fidel Castro or welcoming enough to Cubans trying to flee.

Mr. Martinez could also help the president collect votes along the I-4 corridor, which runs from Daytona Beach to Tampa and is a huge swing-vote region. The area is also home to increasing numbers of Puerto Rican and other Hispanic voters, who represent a big question mark in the presidential race.

Mr. Foley was among the Republicans who said the White House played a role in Mr. Martinez's decision to reconsider the race. "He would have had to have some permission or conversation with Karl before he even entertained the possibility," Mr. Foley said, referring to Karl Rove, the president's chief political strategist, who has called Florida ground zero in Mr. Bush's re-election.

Mr. Foley also said he had spoken to Ms. Harris about her potential candidacy several times. "My advice was simply to be very careful as she enters this thought process because she has a very good career started in the House," he said. "Before she potentially risks that, I want her to consider all the ramifications."