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JVG: Expectations and Overcoming the Rudy T Factor...

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by haven, Oct 26, 2003.

  1. haven

    haven Member

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    Figured I wanted to start this thread before the season officially starts, so as to avoid altered expectations influencing the thread :).

    Many people on this board were either directly in opposition to, or at least squeamish about, letting a Houston sporting icon go as coach. Quite a few of us thought Rudy had underachieved with and failed to adequately teach a young, talented team. Others pointed to the youth of the team - and thought that Rudy just needed more time with a 7'5 center. It wasn't Rudy's fault that Francis turned out to be fool's gold. And two winning seasons in 3 in a difficult West isn't that bad (the other season can be excused due to horrible injury woes). I'd really like to hear from the Rudy-backers in particular, so we can have their thoughts on record :). (and avoid the inevitable: "65 wins and an NBA title? Please, with the talent Rudy left, I would have expected no less" comments.)

    So, what does JVG have to do to extricate himself from Rudy's shadow? How much progress would the Rockets likely have made under Rudy... and how much success does JVG have to create to leave no doubt?

    I think the magical mark is about 52 wins and the 2nd round of the playoffs. It seems to me that anything below 50 wins isn't that impressive. The improvement of Yao alone should net a few more. And while just making the playoffs would be a success, absolutely nobody could have any criticism with a coach who made the 2nd round of the playoffs in the West with essentially the same team that failed to make them the previous year.

    I'll be satisfied with 50 wins and the playoffs. Anything below that, failing extraordinary circumstances, and the hiring can be deemed a first year failure. There would still be hope (for example, getting rid of players who don't buy into the scheme)... but it's hard to justify getting rid of an icon without immediate improvement afterwards. So:

    Undoubted Success: 52 wins, 2nd round
    Satisfactory (but still w/in the range that we could easily have had under RUdy): 50 wins, playoffs.
    We fired Rudy for what?!?!: Anything less.

    I expect improvement. In some situations, that may seem unfair - especially when the coach inherits somebody elses's team with personnel that aren't really to his taste. But getting Yao Ming in his 2nd year in the league is a boon that can't be overstated. And with that huge, huge, plus... comes expectation.
     
  2. RunninRaven

    RunninRaven Member
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    I guess I wouldn't really call myself a Rudy backer. I was of the opinion that it was time to make a change. I loved Rudy, but he no longer seemed like the man for the job in Houston's current situation.

    As for my expectations, mine fall right along in with yours...save for the 2nd round of the playoffs bit. I don't think they need to make it to the 2nd round before I would consider it an undoubted success. 52 wins would be enough for me. I suppose, ultimately, it would depend on who they play in the first round of said playoffs. Hard to say. But I definitely agree that if we end up with less than 50 wins, with no extenuating circumstances, it should be considered a failure, within the framework of that one year. Certainly it doesn't mean that it won't be a good move, or the right move, in the long run. I have every confidence that Van Gundy will meet my expectations, though...and maybe more. :)
     
  3. MFW2310

    MFW2310 Member

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    Let's see if I get what you're saying. You expect 52 wins in a much improve WC with a new coach in a new system with a bunch of new players and our so called future 4 now a jailbait. And you consider anything less a failure?
     
  4. Zacatecas

    Zacatecas Member

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    I expect between 45 and 49 wins.

    I think that is realistic because this team isn't used to winning. There is no doubt in my mind that the Rockets will still go through some losing streaks; but the winning streaks will be more.

    45 to 49 wins put the Rockets into the playoffs for sure. But the down side is that this record gets you a match up with Either the Lakers, Spurs, Mavs, or Kings. Pick your evil!!

    Expecting to get through the 1st round is a pipe dream right now. Sure if the Rockets do as well defensively as they did at the end of the preseason, I will go along with you and say the Rockets could be a Wester conference finals contender.

    But with last year as my best point of reference, I say this team squeeks into the playoffs, and doesn't get swept in the first round!!!
     
  5. iOrange

    iOrange Member

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    make the playoffs

    put up a good fight with one of the big 4(5?), like the Suns did this year.:confused: I can't believe I mentioned the Suns....
     
  6. munco

    munco Member

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    I'm happy if we make the playoffs. We go from not making the playoffs for years and then we're expected to make it to the 2nd round for it to be a success. I think that unless we're the #4 seed in the West, we'd be the underdog to make it to the 2nd round. Spurs, Kings, Mavs, Lakers, Minnesota are all going to be tough to beat this year. 52 wins from 43 wins is a big turnaround especially since the Western Conference got much better.
     
  7. munco

    munco Member

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    I also forgot to add that there does not seem to be a single NBA Preview that picks us to be in the top 4 teams in the Western Conference. I think the highest was the #6, which again would likely mean being the underdog in the first round of the playoffs.
     
  8. rockbox

    rockbox Around before clutchcity.com

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    Anything less than 50 wins is a failure. With this year's team (Yao being more aggressive, Cato actually learning how to shoot, Pike, JJ, and A. Griffin), Rudy would have gotten them to the playoffs with at least 48 wins. I expect more from JVG and believe he can deliver 52 wins.
     
  9. IndianPlaya

    IndianPlaya Member

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    I also agree that if we can get 52 wins and make it to the second round, letting rudy t go and picking up JVG was a great move.
     
  10. haven

    haven Member

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    I don't expect the team to make the 2nd round. But if we did, I think that's the point at which it's no longer plausible to say: "Rudy would have done it, too." If JVG can lead the team that far, he's out from under the shadow. 52 wins and the first round? Like you said, that'd satisfy my expectations. I'd be dancing a jig. But I couldn't really tell the people who would inevitably say, "Rudy would have done it, too" that they should shut the hell up. I'd disagree - but that's not quite the same thing.

    MFW2310:

    Actually, I view the Eddie-removal as a temporary bonus. I always liked Griffin's game - as a future benefit. I thought it was imoprtant that he get playing time sooner, rather than later. But I'm not sure we lose a damned thing (and may gain a bit), by playing Mo T and Cato at the 4 instead.

    And the Western Conference is not improved, aggregately. IT's in decline. The team that have improved are teams that were always going to finish above us. Will it affect our win total? Who the hell knows. Maybe we'll lose a game or two against those teams that we would have had... but it's doubtful. OTH, those players didn't come out of thin air. Some already beatable teams elsewhere just got that much weaker.

    Not to mention, Utah's finished as a playoff team. See any new playoff teams emerging (other than us)? I sure as hell don't. Maybe Denver in a couple years - but not yet. LA will be ****ty, as always, despite the persistent expectations.

    No, this is a good year, not a bad year, for the Rockets to break out.

    And as for having a new coach - bull****. A coach's biggest mark is often (not always, of course) made in his 1st year. If the players buy what he's selling, there'll be drastic improvement. (hell... look at the frickin' Cowboys... the NFL is *far* more complex than the NBA in terms of strategy... yet Parcells has completely turned that team around... it takes a lot less in the less complex NBA).
     
  11. dandorotik

    dandorotik Member

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    If the team makes the playoffs, it was because of JVG.
    If the team misses the playoffs, blame Jeff.
    If the team does better than last year, don't give Rudy credit.
    If the team improves on last year, it's because Rudy T. set the foundation.
    It's the players, not the coach.
    It's the coach, not the players.
    It's the players and the coach.

    Yeah, yeah, we've heard it all before.

    Personally, I don't care if it's Van Gundy, Van Halen, or Van Damme coaching the team- as long as we play hard and win.

    Nuff said.
     
  12. Old Man Rock

    Old Man Rock Contributing Member

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    Gosh this is getting old. Enough with the Rudy and Van Gundy comparisons and trying to compare the two. The Rockets would have done great with Rudy and I don't see Van Gundy any amazing things that Rudy hadn't already established. Let's face it the biggest improvement on the team is not anything Van Gundy. It's Yao plain and simple. Yao's improvement is what has made the difference in the preseason. Please don't give JVG crdit for that. This is not a knock on JVG he is a good coach. But even Yao has said that the differences are just minor and the Rockets just need to continue what Rudy had already established.

    Rudy and CD built this team and JVG is fortunate to take advantage of a great opportunity that Rudy built for him. He knows and he has already said as much. He turned less because he knew he had a great nucleus of talent that was ready to burst on the scene and they would have done it without JVG and probably done it even better with Rudy.

    But there is no point in arguing this because we will never know because Rudy is gone. So please enough with these silly posts trying to compare one of the best coaches of all time with JVG. You can't prove it and it's just speculation. The only thing we do know is Rudy has one 2 championships and JVG when the going got tough quit and then now has the smarts to hop onto a gravy train that worked hard to make happen. He's no idiot, give him credit for good judge of talent. He is a good coach and he will do fine with our team. He should, he inherited a well prepared team from one of the best to have ever coached the game.
     
  13. snowmt

    snowmt Member

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    Van Gundy should get credit to install a better offensive and
    defensive scheme. None of us wants to see Steve and
    Cat's dribblemania and lack of defense this year.
     
  14. MisterMister

    MisterMister Member

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    Now that we know what you mini-mi owners demand,I wonder what Les demands.The Nerve of you Holyer than thou hipocrits.Wakeup us Humans make mistakes all our lives.And guess what I can't spell and I don't do english well either.Get a life would be purists and life critics.Maybe The players today don't play the game like it was played 30 years ago or the way alot of so-called basketball purista insist it was ment to be played,but I feel with all the stiffs that played the game in years past they had to win the best way they could and anyway they could.Todays players are stronger,faster,more athlectic and tall guys are not just tall and slow anymore.The bottom line is,oh forget it already.I'll just leave you critics with a line from Bum Phillips when I think he said something along the line of it may be rainning and snowing in Three Rivers Stadium on the day of one their AFC championship games but it was going to be doing it on both sides of the field,message being all 29 teams have the same obstacles to overcome to become champions.:cool:
     
  15. haven

    haven Member

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    The Rockets were well-prepared last year? Goodness, of all the compliments you could possibly pay to Rudy (good morale, good at identifying with hard-working but not incredibly talented players, honest, etc)... well-prepared hasn't been among them the last few years.

    I can't think of another team with a winning record that defended the pick-and-roll worse (which is almost entirely a matter of preparation). The Rockets played worse zone than most, despite having better presence in the middle than many teams. The Rockets rotate terribly off of double teams.

    Rudy has many virtues. But never - not even during the halcyon championship years - did he prepare teams well strategically. I can't remember anybody thinking that, even when we were winning titles.

    If you're going to attack a post that aggressively- at least stay within the realm of reason in your Rudy-love instead of attributing virtues to him that he never possessed. You've gone bonkers with that statement...
     
  16. haven

    haven Member

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    Incidentally, I was so annoyed on that single point that I forgot to point out the critical flaw in your argument:

    your basic assertion, that JVG's successs will be impossible to judge, leaves Rockets management in an untenable position. Is it difficult to judge how one coach would have done in place of another? Of course. There are few things that are less tangible. But then, it's also very difficult to judge how one role player (20 mpg, 8 points, 3 rebounds) would have done in place of another. It's damned hard to know if James Posey would have proved a better option than having Adrian Griffin and Jim Jackson.

    But you know what? CD made that decision. He has to - and we don't, of course. But just because something is difficult to analyze doesn't mean you shouldn't.
     
  17. DavidS

    DavidS Member

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    Old Man Rock,

    Do really believe that Rudy would have changed the offense and defense? We heard of promises last year, but they never came (regardless of Yao).

    I mean, Five years with Mobley. Four with Francis. Not much change. We couldn't go on like that an expect to win on any consistent level.

    You are right that this is all about speculation. But, I guess we'll just have to wait until the end of the season. Wouldn't it be soooo funny if we win 55 games!?! Last year there were a lot of game we lost that were close that ended in one-on-one clankers. This year I expect to involve the team a *little* more which will take out that predicability (our offense) we've suffered from the last few years. Oh, and the team seems to buying into that thing called, "defense." Thanks to Jeff.
     
  18. solid

    solid Member

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    A transformation from a disorganized, playground, streetball, selfish, over-dribbling, no defense, stupid passing, silly turnover, run out the clock, poor shot selection, completely dumbass, semi-pro, uninteresting, pathetic excuse for a basketball team to a disciplined, defensive-minded, structured, organized, playmaking competent, sharpshooting, professional basketball team would do it for me. I would consider the playoffs a nice bonus. :)
     
  19. Sane

    Sane Member

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    I personally don't think that Rudy would've been able to take this team to more than 45 wins.

    I'm realistically expecting 45 wins, and 7th seed. However, I wouldn't at all be surprised if we ended up something like 50 wins and 6th seed.

    With JVG's style and Yao in the middle, we will DOMINATE the East. At home, our record was already good, and improvement is expected. What we need is to win all the games that we SHOULD win: Memphis, Denver, Golden State, etc..

    I love Rudy T, however, his style didn't fit the Rockets.
     
  20. chris845

    chris845 Member

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    This team will be quite a bit better from last year. Yao Ming has a year of experience under his belt, Jim Jackson has been playing decent and an upgrade from rice so far in the preseason. The only disappointment has been the Eddie Griffin fiasco. I wonder if he will be available for the opening night game? That being said though, since this is the west, it'll be tough to make up the gap from the top teams in just one single year and the teams that finished behind us barley has also gotten a bit better. You can say Utah ain't a playoff team based on the fact that the core has been taken away from there, but (I know preseason is just that, preseason) based on their performance and the fact that if a team is projected to not do well in the regular season but has a decent preseason, they usually exceed the expectations. I don't expect the Jazz to make the playoffs. You never know though.

    I think barring any sufficient injuries, we'll finish with a 48-34 record with a sixth seed and take our first round opponent to six games. If he can get under their heads everytime the Franchise tries to make a shot harder than it is to drive to the basket just to show off, and to not allow Moochie's dribbling clinics out there, it'll give us discipline. The main thing he should do or what us rocket fans hope for is that he's 7'6" and that he's young and can play for at least 3/4 of the game. Frequently last season, Rudy T and Larry Smith took him out when we was fired up or about to get his game on and when they put him back in the 4th quarter, either he was rusty from waisting his energy on the bench, or the other team when right through the Rockets' inept interior defense due to lack of a post presence to intmidate the other teams' attack (something that seems improved so far this year as well).

    I don't think that not getting into the second round would be really a failure nor not winning much over 50 games. This is due to the strength of the western conference and the fact that it'll take the Rockets a few weeks to get acquinted to Van Gundy's system. I don't expect us to miss the playoffs either though. Most of all, we can't lose to too many lottery teams because that's what cost us a shot at 50 wins last year.
     

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