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Juwon Howard Injury Revisited - What Should the Rockets Do?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Tango, Mar 20, 2005.

  1. Tango

    Tango Member

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    I was doing some quick checking of some stats and discovered something interesting.

    Consider the following 04-05 season stats:

    Player -- FGA/Game -- FTA/Game
    Sura -- 8.4 -- 4.9
    James -- 12.2 -- 2.9
    Barry -- 5.4 -- 2.4
    McGrady -- 21.3 -- 8.1
    Wspoon -- 1.8 -- .5
    Padgett -- 3 -- .6
    Yao -- 12.3 -- 9.5
    Deke -- 2.8 -- 1.5
    Bowen -- 1.3 -- .2
    Howard -- 8.9 -- 1.9

    Team: 79.5 FGA/Game
    Team: 18.4 3PA/Game

    Consider the avg Stats from the Blazers & Celtics game:

    Player -- FGA/Game -- FTA/Game
    Sura -- 10 -- 5
    James -- 8.5 -- 0
    Barry -- 7 -- 3.5
    McGrady -- 18.5 -- 8
    Wspoon -- 2 -- 2
    Padgett -- 5 -- 0
    Yao -- 6 -- 9.5
    Deke -- 2.5 -- 2
    Bowen -- 1.5 -- 1

    Team: 73 FGA/Game
    Team: 20 3PA/Game

    Nasty indications here...
    (1) Our PF's aren't making up for JH's absence
    (2) Yao's shooting 1/2 has much as he usually does
    (3) Our number of shot attempts has gone down
    (4) Our number of 3 pt shots have gone up

    #1 and #2 are the most alarming to me. Not only are we not making up for JH's presence, Yao is not nearly involved in the offense as he should be.

    Observations? How should the Rockets respond?
     
  2. Stack24

    Stack24 Member

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    I think we have to wait a few games to get some definate numbers to back these up....after that one game it's a bit premature to say all that.
     
  3. tinman

    tinman 999999999
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    Uhhh.
    the Rockets should.. just play basketball and win.
     
  4. MONON

    MONON Member

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    About the only thing I would say is Yao needs to get more than 6 shots per game.
     
  5. rockbox

    rockbox Around before clutchcity.com

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    The one thing that Howard did is he kept the other teams honest so you couldn't double as much on yao and Tmac. Now the opposing 4 can cheat off of spoon to double yao before he gets the ball and help cover tmac of the screen.

    The second thing Howard did is help get the ball across midcourt quicker. This helps the rocks get into their offense easier and quicker and relieves some of the pressure off sura and james.

    Jho will be missed just because he was capable if not good power foward that took away options from opposing teams.
     
  6. r-fan-since-81

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    How about signing TB to fill in while JHO is out!
     
  7. Willis25

    Willis25 Member

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    [​IMG]
     
  8. rm365

    rm365 Member

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    Howard was also close to unstoppable when he posted up on the low block and flipped up the 5 footer. A lot of plays where the shotclock was running down and we couldn't get hte ball to Yao and they're swarming T-Mac, JHo would bail us out with that play. He didn't hit quite as high a percentage vs Yao on the low block, but Howard was less turnover prone.
    I think we should just stick with what we got - Weatherspoon and Padgett. Obviously, the two should focus on rebounding and defense first and foremost. Padgett has a decent three point shot which should make teams pay for doubling Yao. We should feed him that shot. Spoon's shot is streaky and I prefer if he keeps cutting to the basket if they double off his man. Yao is a good passer and he will find him. Thats what happened last game and it led to 2 freethrows.
     
  9. pgabriel

    pgabriel Educated Negro

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    This morning's Chronicle said the Rockets were thinking about bring back Braggs.
     
  10. AroundTheWorld

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    [​IMG]
     
  11. NIKEstrad

    NIKEstrad Member

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    1.) Don't need stats to tell me that. :)
    2.) Check your stats. A couple caveats- Yao averages 6 FT a game regularly, so his FTs are up. Also, Yao averages 31 minutes on the season- he got 24.5 in the past 2 games.
    3.) We got to the line a lot more. 33.5 FTA/gm, vs. 23.8 FTA on the season. That's roughly equivalent to about 5 more FGA a game, which makes that FGA difference less than 2 a game.
    4.) Let's revisit this later. The Portland game we shot 16 3s, vs. the 24 in Boston. This averaged out to 20, but one game was slightly below average, and the other fairly above average.

    It's too early to see real trends in 2 games, especially with such divergent results (a 30 pt road win, a double digit home loss).

    I would not be surprised to see the loss of Juwan have an adverse effect on Yao- Juwan did a great job stretching the defense into no man's land with his midrange game, which neither Padgett nor Spoon seem to have. The result has been more collapsing on Yao- more fouls, less field goals. Certainly was the case against Boston.

    I think what's clear- we lack talent at the 4 spot. Padge is a great spot player off the bench, but you don't want him in for more than 20 minutes. Spoon has been pretty useless, and Baker's even worse. The dropoff from Howard to these guys is almost as bad as the Sura-Barrett/Strickland dropoff we faced earlier. I expect we'll go after one in free agency, or in trade using expiring contracts. We've added the veterans, now time to add more talent.
     
  12. tinman

    tinman 999999999
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    You are mistakening this person for Shaquille ONeal or Garnett.
    I've seen Juwan miss 5 footers many times.

    Juwan is making less mistakes and helps out on the boards. occassionally scores on the outside or puts back some trash. But to call him unstoppable? Why even play Yao?
     
  13. mateo

    mateo Member

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    I think the Rockets should hope that a well-rested Juwon will kick some ass in the playoffs.
     
  14. Tango

    Tango Member

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    NIKEstrad- Thanks for the Yao's FTA check. I pulled the number from 82games.com. 9.5 FTA48 vs. 6.1 FTA/game. I have no idea what the FTA48 means.

    Here's a repost of the stats post the Minnie game:

    Consider the following 04-05 season stats:

    Player -- FGA/Game -- FTA/Game (1-64 games)
    Sura -- 8.4 -- 4.9
    James -- 12.2 -- 2.9
    Barry -- 5.4 -- 2.4
    Wesley -- 9.2 -- 3 <--- missing prev.
    McGrady -- 21.3 -- 8.1
    Wspoon -- 1.8 -- .5
    Padgett -- 3 -- .6
    Yao -- 12.3 -- 6.1 <--- updated
    Deke -- 2.8 -- 1.5
    Bowen -- 1.3 -- .2
    Howard -- 8.9 -- 1.9

    Team: 79.5 FGA/Game
    Team: 18.4 3PA/Game
    Team: 26.6 FTA/Game <--- new

    Stats for the past 3 games (Blazers, Celtics, TWolves)

    Player -- FGA/Game -- FTA/Game
    Sura -- 8.3 -- 4.7
    James -- 10.3 -- 1.3
    Barry -- 5.3 -- 4.0
    Wesley -- 10.0 -- 1.7 <--- missing prev
    McGrady -- 19.3 -- 8.7
    Wspoon -- 1.7 -- 1.3
    Padgett -- 4.0 -- .7
    Yao -- 7 -- 11.7
    Deke -- 2.7 -- 3.3
    Bowen -- 2.3 -- .7

    Team: 72 FGA/Game
    Team: 19.6 3PA/Game
    Team: 38 FTA/Game <--- new

    I'll need to think on this some more. There's probably other stats to analyze here.

    We are definitely missing something on the offensive production side of things missing Juwon Howard. I think the most telling is what a few of you all have stated here already and that is what JHO gives us in stretching the defense to open up the inside more for Yao. Yao's the most notable drop off from an offensive efficiency standpoint. The frontcourt is not making up for JHO's presence. A little closer look:

    Season:
    Yao -- 12.3 -- 6.1 = 15 eFGA/game
    Deke -- 2.8 -- 1.5 = 3 eFGA/game
    Howard -- 8.9 -- 1.9 = 10 eFGA/game
    Padgett -- 3 -- .6 = 3 eFGA/game

    Last 3:
    Yao -- 7 -- 11.7 = 12 eFGA/game
    Deke -- 2.7 -- 3.3 = 4 eFGA/game
    Wspoon -- 1.7 -- 1.3 = 2 eFGA/game
    Padgett -- 4.0 -- .7 = 4 eFGA/game

    Which brings me back to my original thought regarding this thread.
    (1) It doesn't appear we are making up for 10 eFGA/game we were getting from JHO.
    (2) Where are we trying to make up for the 10 eFGA/game?
     
  15. Tango

    Tango Member

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    Ooops- correction...

    (1) It doesn't appear we are not making up for 10 eFGA/game we were getting from JHO.
     
  16. Willis25

    Willis25 Member

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    Q:What Should the Rockets Do?

    A: Make their open shots... make their layups... and hit a few free throws
     
  17. tinman

    tinman 999999999
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    oh my bad, with Juwan, Garnett would have gone off for 28 pts instead of 30.

    I liked it when JVG put Dikembe as the PF.
    Bottom line,
    Tmac tonight =

    [​IMG]
     
  18. NIKEstrad

    NIKEstrad Member

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    Tango- FTA/48 is FTA per 48 minutes.

    The one constant over the past 3 games is we're getting to the FT line significantly more (particularly Yao). The problem is, we're not making our free throws like we're capable of.

    Now, there are a few potential answers for our jump in FTAs.

    1.) Without Howard, the inside on offense is entirely Yao's- draws more fouls. Or, the defense is collapsing inside more without Howard's midrange J to fear, leading to more fouls.
    2.) Other than Portland, our perimeter shooting has been ugly, leading to more interior play=fouls.
    3.) We might just be playing tougher.

    We shot 35% compared to 44% overall, and 22% from the 3 compared to 50%. We still only lost to Minnesota by 8. We shot below 70% from the line, they shot above 80%. If you normalize both teams to their season averages, it's a 6 point swing (plus 4 Rockets, -2 Minnesota) right there. And from there, it's a tie ball game if Mike James or TMac makes the freaking layup on the 2 on 1 in the 4th quarter. It's amazing despite how bad we played, and how bad TMac shot, this was a winnable game.
     
  19. DavidS

    DavidS Member

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    This issue isn't that KG wouldn't have scored 28-30. It's that we're missing another scoring option that can ease the pressure by giving us some offense/defensive consistency; i.e. Howard (10-14pts/6-7 rbs). Psychologically, this helps the team. Not just statistically.

    Regarding tonight's game....all we were doing -- all game -- was trying to find a mix of players that could work together....Just beacuse two of our PF replacements happen to score 9 pts (Deke/Padg)...well, that's NOT what I call offensive chemistry. More like an offensive experiment (pun not intended). Yes, TMac/James missed a lot of shots. But part of that problem is that we are struggling to find the flow *within* offense...as a team. Having our PF as an option helps the whole team work together. Not just individual stats.

    Tmac can't save us all the time. We need to have a balanced team if we want to consistency win. The *best* teams should be able to win even when the stars don't have a particularly good game.

    Oh, and the only reason you "liked it" -- that JVG put in Deke at PF -- was because *it* was our *only* option (desperation/novelty). And it was *not* Howard.
     
    #19 DavidS, Mar 20, 2005
    Last edited: Mar 21, 2005
  20. room4rentsf

    room4rentsf Member

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    you know our PF depth is really really bad when the 50 yr old backup center comes in at PF!

    *oh man.. it was cool seeing Deke and Yao in together (as a novelty) but it says alot about what JVG thinks about our other PF's.

    No one seemed to respect them (Spoon, Padgett, RBowen) and JVG must have no confidence in VBaker.

    someone mentioned earlier that PF is our weakest position and we have no depth.

    J
     

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