CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W S OF CUBA WITH A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N. OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOY 42058 SUGGEST THERE IS A WEAK LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WITH WLY WINDS RECENTLY REPORTED...THOUGH THOSE WINDS ARE LIKELY ENHANCED BY DOWNDRAFTS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW BANDING FEATURES DEVELOPING ON THE N SIDE OF THE WAVE WITH SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW. THIS AREA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE WNW IS LIKELY... PLACING THE SYSTEM IN THE W CARIBBEAN LATE WED/EARLY THU. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13.5N-17.5N BETWEEN 74W-78W. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR JAMAICA LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. The above is from the NHC, but Steve and Jeff are discussing it as well: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/show.html
yeah, i have. i read steve's most recent update to his blog. sounds like they expect it to develop, but that the Gulf isn't fertile ground for hurricanes right now. but who knows???!!!
I don't really want to think about storms at the moment. But, yeah, I've been watching it. Here's my personal opinion: If it continues to develop, which it looks like it might, there is a pretty good chance it will ram into the Yucatan peninsula as a depression. If it does make it into the Gulf, no doubt it will become a tropical storm. What makes forecasting it tricky is the fact that there are quite cool waters throughout the Gulf at the moment. The Gulf waters in most places, with the exception of that one very warm eddy that caused Rita to expand to a cat. 5 storm, are 4-6 degrees cooler than when Rita passed over them. When Rita passed over them, they were generally 2-4 degrees cooler than when Katrina passed over them. So, it would be tough for a storm to gain any significant development given the cooler waters. However, the front that should pass by us on Thursday night is likely to stall out in the Gulf over the weekend. If this disturbance interacts with that front, it could very quickly develop into a hurricane. That is exactly how Alicia formed. If and when that happens, there's no telling on steering currents at the moment. It is just too far out. But, interaction with that front would probably happen in the southern and southeastern parts of the Gulf. Alicia formed much closer to Texas than that. We'll have to keep an eye on it, but given the time of year, the cooler waters left behind after Katrina and Rita and that massive uncertainty as to if it will even make it into the Gulf (the last model runs have it heading mostly towards Mexico) mean we won't know anything before the end of the week and, even then, I suspect we have nothing to worry about.
The cool fronts are headed our way, not only do they lower the heat and humidity but they keep those pesky hurricanes at bay. Yes, this weekend it will only be a balmy 88; that's chilln' in the new age of global warming.
Sort of. Actually, they do help lower surface temperatures, but it will be another month before any fronts come through that significantly lower water temperature, which is key for hurricane development. In our case, Rita and Katrina did benefit us by churning up the Gulf and lowering water temps, but the cold front coming through won't help that significantly. Also, fronts are regions of low pressure that server to add fuel to hurricanes when they interact. It is the high pressure that is usually behind a cold front that keeps hurricanes away. If this storm does materialize AND makes its way into the Gulf AND isn't picked up and moved north AND makes it over to Texas, we still could see a hurricane hit the Gulf coast. I still don't think it would be of significance in terms of size, but Allison wasn't a hurricane and you saw the damage it can do. Personally, this one doesn't have me as concerned as Rita did, but it bears watching.
Too bad storms over here don't have cool names like typhoon Long Wang I can already see theheadline, "Long Wang threatens China, stiff winds expected"
http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/ Should we be worried about the Caribbean disturbance? As much as this pains me to say: Maybe. In the course of reporting a story on a cool front headed our way Thursday (don't get your hopes up too much, it's a weak one), I called Chris Hebert, a forecaster at ImpactWeather. Chris is a sharp guy, and a crack hurricane forecaster, so I asked him about the disturbance. Here's what he said: 1. There is potential for development, with some rotation characteristic of a tropical storm already present in the upper atmosphere. 2. Chances are better than not the system will become Tropical Storm Stan near the Yucatan Peninsula by Thursday or Friday. 3. Neither Rita nor Katrina stirred waters in the Bay of Campeche or southern Gulf of Mexico, so conditions there remain ripe for intensification. The same model that predicted those storms could reach category-5 status says "Stan" could become as strong as a category-4. 4. After the crossing the Yucatan, the storm could reach hurricane status by Sunday, with a landfall possible from the northern Mexico coast to the middle of Louisiana by the middle of next week. Sound familiar? 5. All of this should be taken as water cooler talk. It's simply a good forecaster's best guess right now. The system might not even develop into a tropical storm. Some early model runs look promising, at least from the U.S. perspective. I asked Hebert about these, and he said the same models were forecasting Rita to do something similar, putting too much stock in the strength a high pressure ridge across the southeast United States. Also bear in mind that 5-day models for a system that hasn't even formed into a tropical depression are incredibly unreliable. I'm not trying to be an alarmist, but it's possible there will be a hurricane in the southern Gulf of Mexico early next week. And although waters nearer to our coasts are well stirred up and cooled down, the storm could be mighty strong before it comes this way.
