As we all know, January was going to tell a lot about this team. The Rockets had finally got back to .500 on December 31st but December's schedule was pretty soft as we beat 10 non-playoff teams. So how bad was January? Pretty bad... The Rockets went 6-11 during the month of January. Chuck Hayes was out for the first 7 games of the new year and our record was 1-6 with our only win coming against Boston. The Rockets played 13 playoff teams during the month of January and they only beat three of those playoff teams all coming from the East. The Rockets played all but one playoff team (Lakers) in the West and lost all seven of them. Our other three wins came against lottery bound teams. The only non-playoff team we lost to was Memphis How bad was the defense during these 11 losses? The Rockets gave up 110 points per game and 49% shooting. Not only was the defense so bad, we were out-rebounded 9 of those 11 losses. Opponents were averaging 45 RPG compared to our 39 RPG during this stretch.. Our offense isn't the problem. The Rockets were averaging 102 PPG during these losses and shooting 44% from the field. The Rockets were very close in some of these games but we pissed the game away in the fourth quarter. This shows how important it is to have a closer on your team... There weren't many blow outs in these losses. It's pretty obvious, IMO, that Morey will have to make some major changes to this team. There is two things we're clearly lacking on this team, a closer and a defensive minded Center. We all know Morey will be active come the trading deadline but can he address both needs by the deadline? I don't he can. I would rather Morey try and land a big during this deadline then anything. I hope he can address the log jam that we have on this roster because we have way to many wings on this team. Either way, this trading deadline and upcoming off-season will be the biggest challenge Morey will have to face as GM of the Rockets. Yao's situation and the decision to either completely rebuild will be some of the key things he'll have to address this off-season.
Overall, I like your post. However, it is generally a good idea to present facts from both sides of the debate and then draw a conclusion rather than to make a point and only include points that make your case. You focused on the losses, but I'd like to have seen how we performed during those wins. Were we outrebounded? How did the offense compare from wins to losses. And the same for defense? I would bet that I would agree with your conclusion, but it doesn't feel right until we know facts from both sides of the debate.
Dude your graph is way better then that self proclaimed "Clutch Fans Statistical Genius"!! With that said, you better sleep with one eye open tonight because he may want to shank you.
Ideally you would have wanted them to win 8-10 out of 17 games in January and they came up with only 6. That means they really need to focus in February to make up ground. With only 12 games in February, they would ideally like to get 10 wins out of 12 in February. 10 of the 12 being games the Rockets should be favored in. I am giving the Rockets the edge on the 2nd in Utah because of the Jazz's losing streak and DWilliams being on the mend. Current Record - 22-27 February Outlook= Tue 01 @ LA Lakers 9:30pm FSNHOU Wed 02 @ Utah 8:00pm FSNHOU Sat 05 vs Memphis 7:30pm FSNHOU Mon 07 @ Denver 8:00pm FSNHOU Tue 08 vs Minnesota 7:30pm FSNHOU Sat 12 vs Dallas 7:30pm FSNHOU Mon 14 vs Denver 7:30pm FSNHOU Wed 16 vs Philadelphia 7:30pm FSNHOU Tue 22 @ Detroit 6:30pm FSNHOU Wed 23 @ Cleveland 6:00pm FSNHOU Sat 26 vs New Jersey 7:30pm FSNHOU Sun 27 @ New Orleans 6:00pm Favorable record after March= 32-29 -After March the Rockets have 21 games left. Half of those games they are favored in, roughly. 15 wins would seem to be the magic number here to get in the playoffs with a 47-35 record.
As of now Yes. First off, you really dont know what the roster will look like after February anyways and once you get in the playoffs, you never know what can happen. 2 Seasons ago the Rockets were 1 game away from the WC Finals against a winnable team in Denver. The first round would be a 7 game series against the likes of a San Antonio or the Lakers that I believe the Rockets can beat given a couple roster upgrades and some luck. Plus, young players will get better from playoff experience and will have higher value from playing and excelling in the playoffs. The 14 pick vs. the 17th pick doesn't mean nearly as much to this organization as having a succesful run in the playoffs.
I have ZERO faith in this version of the Rockets, every time they have had a test put in front of them, they've FAILED. They will be 22-29 going into their easy stretch but have shown no sign that they can beat a WC playoff team on the road or at home with any type of consistency. Without any significant changes, I see them 28-33 going into March. Their schedule seems pretty mixed after March so 38-44 seems like a fair projection HOWEVER everything could change at the deadline.
I can't see them making the playoffs unless major moves are made IMO. This team isn't the same like last year's team. Last year's team had a lot of heart and I don't see this in this team.
And here comes the soap box= Man... great "fans" we have in Houston... Im sorry, but I want my team to win big. Im realistic about the options but to have the chance at upsetting a top team and dropping two picks in the draft for a player they could probably pick there anyways... I mean, come on. *The Rockets are not tanking and they are not going to have one of the top three picks anyways, so why not take a chance at upsetting a major team? Also, to comment from the previous post about the heart of this current team. I agree that there is something lacking from this team... heart, defense, you name it, it hasnt been there most of this year. But Look at games like the one against the Celtics... they seem to have the most fight in them when they are truely considered the underdogs. The players on this team all have ego's and if they were in a seven game series against the Lakers or Spurs, there is no doubt in my mind that they would play like they mean it. As a fan of this team for many many years, I dont ever want to see them back down from any opponent, and the fans should feel that way even more. You want a star player well let me give this to you straight. Prospects become stars in the Playoffs. Not the regular season.
I believe we could quite possibly win 11 of these games, starting with a win in L.A. Only the Dallas game looks daunting if we haven't made a trade for a center to stop Tidings Chandler from using us as dunk practice. Realistically we are only 1 or 2 players away from being a contender. Of course the Center position, and a perimeter defender or just someone who can close out a tight game. Seeing our schedule, I am excited. If we put in the effort we will be in the playoffs, and if we can get that trade/s done we could have another parade in Houston. I believe it! As much as people whine and complain, we do have excellent complimentary players, just no one to compliment. I wasn't a big fan of the Melo drama, but looking at it now Melo and a decent big guy would equal championship
Thanks for some enthusiam. Would have to respectfully disagree with Melo being the guy the Rockets really truely want to win it all with, but I am still more than willing to role the dice as long as it doesn't cripple the team in the future. I think this team has a chance to win big with more of the 2004 Detroit Pistons formula. February is such a cruicial month. If they can win 10 of these very winable 12 games, they are right in the mix. After that 15 of 21 against a fairly easy schedule should be a real possibility especially since Morey will most likely upgrade the squad in February at least with one or two small moves.
After the Trade deadline moves which are inevitable, im sure it will look like a roster miracle, because this team surely will play better knowing this is the team that will be going into the next season with very little uncertainty, and players should know their roles much better and play for the team goal rather than just playing to not get traded (Thats you Battier).
Of course I'm enthusiastic, I love my team. Frustrated, yes, but to put it in perspective: take Hakeem off our first championship team, what is left? Thorpe, Horry, Maxwell. Smith & Cassell. All complimentary players built to support The Dream. In regular season how many wins would this crew have without Olajuwon? 30? 35? 40 maybe? Now take out Clyde & Dream off the next years team.....exactly. This team was built for a purpose, to compliment Yao & T-mac. Injuries derailed that plan but we still have some good to great young talent out there that IMO is only 1 or 2 players away from another title run. Props to DM as he said in Hoopsworld article, he is not going to trade just for trading sake (sic) the other teams in the league know what we have, and unlike Memphis did for L.A., won't gift wrap us a title, as much as we'd love them too. As for the pistons formula, they had star players but they 'played the right way' and were USED CORRECTLY to maximize the strengths. At the moment some of, if not most of our team are not being used in a way that maximizes their strengths, and we are definitely not playing the right way. I prefer to look at what we have to work with and not focus on the wreckage. We have got a very deep SUPPORTING cast, 2 elite - second tier scorers, and the heart of Chuckwagon. Add a center and solid 3 and we are not that far off. Now that's Positive!
Actually 52 games, minus Horry, Cassell and Dream for a chunk of the 90-91 season, the Rockets went 52-30. The 1st championship team had a HECK of a supporting cast, better then our court squad, IMHO.
