James Harden's Trade Value: Re-Reading Bill Simmons' Column from March 2012

After the Harden deal went down, I've been thinking about just how desirable a piece the Rockets just acquired. Most of us are very high on Harden, but a few (including folks here and commentators like Jalen Rose) have argued he hasn't proven anything other than as a sixth man and/or that the Rockets perhaps gave up too many assets.

So, I was reminded of Bill Simmons' annual "NBA Trade Value" column, which he does before the trade deadline every season. In the column, he lists NBA players that he thinks has the top 50 trade value and ranks them. He compares players' "trade value" by asking that, considering talent, age, contract and all other circumstances, how willing would Player A's team be willing to deal him for Player B if the Collective Bargaining Agreement allows it (and vice versa for Player B's team). I don't always agree with the rankings, but it's usually an interesting and entertaining read.

Anyhow, here's the most recent column, written on March 9, 2012, shortly before last season's trade deadline:

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/7664492/nba-trade-value-part-1
http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/7666048/nba-trade-value-part-2

Some relevant rankings:

James Harden: 33rd
Jeremy Lin: 34th
Kyle Lowry: 38th

Scola and Martin were ranked in 2011 but fell out last year. Goran Dragic was not ranked.

So, looking at the list now, I'd think he would rank Harden higher now even without last night's stunning debut-- Simmons called Harden a "top 20" player in a recent podcast. Many of the higher-ranked guys are either much older (Duncan, Ginobili Pierce, etc.) that even VERY strong sentimental value doesn't justify picking them over Harden, some have suffered serious injuries or are in iffy health (Rubio, Bynum), and others I just don't agree with (Derrick Williams-- who got put there cuz he put up good stats right around March 9 with Love injured).

Where do you think Harden would go?


(Also, kind of interesting to see how even a slight change in timing affects perception on a player's value. On March 9th, Lin has just experienced a string of strong games, so he got ranked 34th (which Simmons admitted was a hard one to determine), but Dragic, who had yet to experience his post-Lowry-injury explosion, was not even an "honorable mention"-- in fact, most of us also thought of him as nothing but a somewhat solid backup at that time.)