I voted on the fence . He’s got tools . He showed so much more this year than he did his first two . part of my negativity in the past definitely can be attributed to how the rockets “developed” him . I did not like the blanket getting minutes no matter what . scoring is valuable for sure . For me to be fully optimistic he’d have to show more than that . It’s hard to see what’s just a hot streak and what’s legitimate offensive prowess . at some level it does come down to how effective/ efficient you are at putting the ball in the basket (unless you are an assist wizard) definitely giving Jamal Crawford / jr smith vibes his defense this year was promising , but still not up to snuff for someone with his tools
I chose "somewhat optimistic" because that is the way I am making myself be when it comes to Jalen however if you held a gun to me I would have to admit I am "somewhat pessimistic".
Poor playmaker and a streaky shooter. He settles for too many 3s that he's just not good at. He has an underrated mid-range game but does not space himself well to get good looks. He has improved his finish at the rim. Sometimes I feel he does not take winning seriously but it is a subjective observation. I'm on the fence on this one but will move to pessimistic if this upcoming season he plays more of the same.
Optimistic in the sense that I think Jalen will 100% have a long NBA career. With the mold of player he is at present, Jalen's only viable roles on a good team are as one of the lead on-ball guys in that team's starting lineup, or as a bench offensive weapon. The challenge is, getting to that level offensively is really hard. You have to become one of the best ~40 offensive basketball players in the world. It has become more unlikely for Jalen, although not impossible, given his first 3 years. Not going to rehash it all here, but the number of current 2 guards who've gotten to that level while never breaking 35% from 3 on either C&S or pullup looks in their first 3 years is zero. But it's not completely impossible. Jalen has shown flashes here and there. And you can squint and see bits of Fox or Ja in Jalen. I'd guess this path has ~15% chance of success. Now, Jalen could also expand his mold to be a better defender / spot-up shooter / connector to give him outs as a starting level complementary guard. I think that's still possible for him, although also unlikely. So IMO, makes total sense to play this season out. Small but meaningful chance he pops and shows he can for sure be a lead guy. Also small chance he's effective in a complementary role and signals he wants to stick around at a reasonable number. All other scenarios, you have the optionality to move on. There's no opportunity cost here because I don't think you could move him for much now anyhow, and I don't think we would get any discount extending him this summer vs. next. Absolute worst case scenario that must be avoided is paying Jalen like a lead guy before you know he can be a lead guy, and the most likely thing turns out to be true - he isn't one. We have so many other possible paths, can't foreclose on those with a misplay here.
I voted Somewhat Pessimistic because he hasn't shown the level of improvement over the years typically observed from great players. Obviously, I would love to be wrong and JG would take the massive step forward this year, but my biggest fear is, he does play better marginally this year because it's basically a contract year, only for Rockets to give him the bag, and he plateaus into a pretty good but overrated player who puts up numbers but doesn't contribute to winning and we're stuck to him with a big inflated untradable contract. I would rather him play better, get his value up, trade him at the deadline, and invest in next up and comer, hopefully that's Jabari and/or Amen who take the next big step like Sengun did last year.
I don’t understand why so many people on this site who either are against Green or who sees the glass as half empty keep saying Green only had 10 “good games” ? This is misleading and inaccurate especially when he had multiple 30 pt performances prior to that MAR streak. He also had several performances where he had 25 plus points and over .450 overall FG%, high assists, rebounds but with a low 3pt % (22%) such as his triple double FEB10 where he had 26pts 14 reb and 10 asts. He also played solidly in the last 4 out of 8 games after the streak. Remember Rockets defended poorly as a team and as a team struggled offensively in those games against MIN, DAL, GSW etc. He really was one of the few bright spots in that MIN game at the end of the season getting other players involved with playmaking. This gives us hope. If we are judging him by efficient games in terms of 3pt% and overall output then he had at least 16 great games going back to DEC. This begs the question what is the standard we are measuring him by? Is this 10 game mark assessing his “great” performances covering all aspects such as efficiency as well as scoring output and assists etc? Or is this 10 game mark assessing his most “efficient” games? Anthony Edwards went on a huge tear with multiple games scoring over 30 but had several games where he shot below .250 from 3 and multiple 5 plus TO games. Remember he turns the ball over more than Green and this was evident in the playoffs as well. So what is the barometer and lens we are assessing Green with?
What is your definition of someone that deserves the rookie max? What the fo believes to meet that commitment is the measurement he has to live up to to continue to be a rocket.
I am not in the business of playing GM. I am simply addressing how fans assess his performance this year and seek clarity as to what and how they assess him considering they keep citing these “10 games”. And considering other players in his peer group shoot inefficiently or have had other deficiencies while still scoring at a high output and making plays for teammates. Playing well doesn’t necessarily mean having a flawless game or high efficiency game. It’s what kind of plays the player makes to effect winning including making plays for others and that MIN game late in the season is an example of what im talking about. But again the question is how and what we judge him by.
Defense and then offense, regardless of team......do you give up more than you score/create?..........
Green did break 35% on catch and shoot 3’s his first 2 years. NBA finals MVP Jaylen Brown did not break 34% on either categories in 22-23. That is an arbitrary number and not necessarily a deciding factor on how effective a player is in terms of winning.
I’m optimistic because if he succeeds the rockets succeed, don’t we want that? What I don’t abide is supposed fans rooting for him to fail so they can be right.
He shot 35% and 35% on C&S both years, i.e. he did not break 35%. Less than 35% on all other shot types and years. Jaylen Brown is a wing who primarily guards 3s and 4s and was the primary defender on LeBron in the playoffs as a rookie. Jalen Green weighs 185 lbs. Jaylen Brown is not a comp for Jalen Green. You’re missing the point anyway. Look at every 2 guard who is a top 50 or 100 offensive player in the NBA. Basically every one had better 3pt shooting indicators by the end of their 3rd season. You can choose whatever threshold you like. Booker, Maxey, Mitchell, LaVine, Sexton, Bane, Simons, McCollum, Herro, Poole, Edwards, White, DiVincenzo, Bogdanovic, Beal, Thomas, Reaves, Vassell. I’m not out on Jalen, just being realistic. The remaining paths to being a lead offensive weapon are slim - either take a leap as a shooter that would be an outlier among his peers, or develop more into a rim pressure PG type a la Fox or Ja. Still think it’s possible and bet worth taking in 24-25 given the minimal opportunity cost, but it’s a low-ish probability / high reward bet at this point, and that’s how the FO is treating it.
I guess I don’t understand why “breaking” 35% by year 3 is a benchmark or indicator of an “effective” player who effects winning or a “Great” player. Or am I incorrect in stating your premise? Is Simons necessarily an overall “better” player than Green? Or Sexton? Or Poole? Bogdonovich? There are different ways players affect the game such as dribble drive ability and playmaking and that arbitrary 35% mark you set doesn’t necessarily indicate how much a player effects winning. I mentioned Brown because he shot less than 35% in year 7. And isn’t shooting 35.2 above 35%? This is arbitrary and perhaps I didn’t understand since you did not state what “breaking” means. Jaylen Brown btw has played more 2 guard than 3 in his NBA career. He played a lot of minutes as 2 his rookie year with Crowder at 3. He also played 2 alongside Kyrie with Heyward and Tatum at 3. Then he was 2 with Kemba, Smart, and now he is a 3 with White at 2. Demarr Derozan has had a great career without being able to shoot 3s. I do agree in terms of developing him as a primary ball handler and playmaker as a combo guard. FVV or whomever is at the 1 can still bring the ball up but the ball needs to be in his hands not FVV. Then he can work with Sengun as this team’s best players. Anyway just wanted some clarity on what you meant.
If he makes it to the deadline I think its because they couldn't find a deal they liked to be honest. It really sucks because I think he's the most talented player on the team and has everything he needs to be a superstar except for having it all together mentally. He is what holds himself back and you can see he doesn't have the same killer instinct that uber talented players like him usually need to ascend. I also don't believe he will ever find that on this team and will need to do it on another team. The first few years with Silas really messed things up for Jalen in Houston and I think that damage is done. He is a guy that needs a change of scenery and to be really knocked down to find a way to fight through that adversity to get to the heights of his talent and it'll most likely happen elsewhere. Just a crappy situation for the Rockets because I think he will eventually be really good, I just dont think it can happen with us.
Remember that was the knock on Tatum. Also I would put the blame on Stone and management for waiting till year 3 to surround him with vets who have had winning experience.
The fact that you're using these players as comparisons for Jalen Green pretty much sums up what he is right now. I won't even bother arguing whether he's a more effective winning player compared to these guys, but just the fact that you are trying to use these players to make Jalen look good, as a former #2 pick in the draft, that's already pessimistic outlook for him.
I was using what the other poster used dude and responded to him. I believe The other poster’s premise was that these players are effective or good SG’s in the league and compared them to Green. Did you read the other poster’s response or no? What are your thoughts on the rest of my post besides that part you just mentioned?
A lot of us have made similar statements about Jalen, myself included .... 6th man type stuff. I've got to question that - generally your 6th man / microwave scorer is a guy who can shoot but has some other "limitation", maybe he's short or a poor defender or maybe he's just your 2nd best at that position but usually, these guys can shoot and 5 nights out of 7, that's Jalen's "limitation". If he can't shoot, he can't be that microwave scorer. Maybe you can put him in, see if he's hot that day ..... but that's not a 6th man, that's more end of the rotation Dude.
Yes that's his premise. And yours is these players aren't necessarily better than Jalen Green last year. Which is an ok opinion. For instance, you can go to the Blazers board and ask if they'd rather have Simons or Green, majority would probably prefer keeping Simons. But there may be some that prefer Green. That's why they're comparable players. But if you ask the Rockets board if people here want Green or Brown, no one is choosing Green, at least no one who isn't a troll.
