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Jalen Greens 3rd Year Analysis Vs Current SGs

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by BigMaloe, Dec 1, 2023.

  1. MystikArkitect

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    I mean...Mobley still isn't even the 3rd best player on his team so not sure what he'd even be doing here. Bringing in more defenders into the paint because he can't shoot past 5 feet.
     
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  2. Corrosion

    Corrosion Member

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    He finishes well enough at the rim (1-3ft), the problem is the shooting percentage in the midrange (3-10ft, .315 & 10-16ft .273).
    He doesn't have a floater or a pull up shot he can use in the mid range when the defender cuts off his path to the bucket and he's missing the open man on the perimeter when he gets cut off and takes tough shots instead of making the right pass.

    I really think that is the place he can make the biggest improvement is in that middle ground between the rim and the 3 point line. Getting easier shots or making the right pass .... Lots of film study.
     
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  3. JayGoogle

    JayGoogle Member

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    Exactly and Green HAS improved this year. Defensively he's MUCH better. Yeah his offensive game hasn't grown much so far this year, it's pretty much the same and more about if he's hitting his shots, he didn't add a new move but there's still time for him to add a few crafty moves to get buckets, that comes with experience.

    Personally, this year should be about his defensive improvement which he's definitely grown a lot on that side of the ball.
     
  4. ExTexanNowEastCoast

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    Why not? He is basically at 20 ppg now. I bet he ends at 23 ppg.
     
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  5. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    What an insane hot take
     
  6. DaDakota

    DaDakota If you want to know, just ask!
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    Don't think so with this team - he won't get the ball enough to do that

    DD
     
  7. MadMax

    MadMax Contributing Member

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    Coming into tonite, Jalen was 20/4/3 on 43/36/79 shooting. 56 TS%. .6 SPG and .4 BPG. 2.2 TPG. All in 32 minute per game.

    Comparing to Klay who was in his third year a very long time ago is missing context, imo. Currently Jalen is 42nd in the league in scoring…in Klay’s third year he was 25th….that’s significant context. There are 39 guys averaging 20 points or more…in Klay’s third year there were only 19 guys who averaged 20 points or more. The game has changed big time. The guy who was 42nd in scoring in Klay’s 3rd year? Wesley Matthews.

    Jalen is absolutely gonna be better at counting stats than Jaylen Brown, for example. Brown was.on a team that went to the 2nd round and was playing with Kyrie, Tatum, Marcus Morris, Al Horford, Terry Rozier and Marcus Smart. Brown averaged less than 11 shots/game. Green is not a team close to that offensively talented, so of course he’ll score more and get more opportunities to do so.

    LaVine played 47 games in year 3 cause he got hurt…he averaged 19ppg on a team that had KAT and Wiggins…with Rubio handling the ball a ton. I think LaVine is actually the best comp, though LaVine is bigger and a better ball handler…but he’s also a guy no one really seems to want around. He could stand to open up a can of care, tbh.

    Dejounte was in year 4 playing less than 26 mpg…taking less than 10 shots per game with DeRozan, Aldridge, Patty Mills, Rudy Gay, all guys who can shoot or do something with the ball in their hands. Dejounte was earned all defensive honors in year 2 and helped the Spurs win 47 games that year with the 3rd best defense in the league. Jalen is a much better shooter than Dejounte was at that point…and he also has way more opportunities to score than Dejounte did.

    CJ was flat out a better ball handler than Jalen is. CJ was the clear #2 to Lillard in year 3 and they won 44 games with the 6th best offense…and won a playoff series. He led the Blazeers in minutes in the playoffs while Lillard shot below 37% for the playoffs. Jalen doesn’t have the intangibles CJ did.

    Klay was the clear #2 scorer on a team that won 51 games in year 3…a much better defender with more size. A LIGHT YEARS better shooter. Jalen is not that, despite being a better athlete. Nowhere near the shooter or defender that Klay was.

    Murray was the #2 offensive guy on a 5 win team that was 1 game away from making the WCF in year 3. He ran the offense when Jokic wasn’t in.

    Jalen looks like the #2 scorers, 3rd offensive guy on a .500 team that will likely be a play-in team and rank 17th on offense. Just very different roles than Dejounte or Brown. Those guys were asked to be role players on consistent playoff teams and teams that were winning a lot. They were asked to do less on the offensive end and more on defense…I don’t believe Jalen is capable of being what they were defensively. LaVine is the best comparison to me, but Jalen doesn’t have to compete for points the way he did with KAT and Wiggins averaging 25 and 22 ppg. Beal is somewhat comparable, though a different role and different skill set.

    The 2 who were super high picks like Jalen were Brown and Beal. Brown came into a winning situation and had to earn his way to more opportunities on the offensive end…had to play gritty defense in an off-ball role on a successful team. It’s difficult for me to imagine Jalen being that. Beal was playing off Wall and was asked to run bench units when Wall was out….they swept the Raptors in his 3rd year with Beal as the #1 scorer.

    Booker was a 6th man in college and a late lottery pick. Played as the #2 scorer on a 21 win Suns team and was still more efficient than Jalen despite all the scouting reports.

    Anthony Edwards was a top pick and he’s clearly ahead…as you said, all star..more efficient…better defensively by a lot. Led a team to the playoffs and Denver said it was the tough test out for them. He averaged 32/5/5 on really high efficiency against the eventual champs despite a ton of roster turnover.

    Bane was the 30th pick…shorter wingspan…was #2 on offense to Ja on a 51 win team in year 3. Was their #2 offensive guy in year 2 even when Memphis won 56 games and made it to round 2.

    All the guys mentioned except Booker are winning out of the gate and are helping year 1 to win…by year 2-3 they are one of the main reasons why their team is winning. Jalen is just not that. He plays an offensive role for a decent team that is meh offensively, but he’s clearly 3rd fiddle to Sengun and FVV.

    Nights like tonight…where he just disappears. To compare him to these guys is just crazy to me and robs context entirely. I want him to be great. I do not see it.
     
    #127 MadMax, Dec 3, 2023
    Last edited: Dec 3, 2023
  8. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

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    It remains to be seen if that carries over to another coach or was that Udoka just yelling at him all the time.
     
  9. cumutk

    cumutk Member

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    This Jalen kid , is spending his Credits Day to Day.

    Eason is a better alternative to start, at least he has defense.Green has no consistent offense and no defense..
     
  10. Entropy

    Entropy Member

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    Jalen is Fool's Gold. Shows up once every three games, and that third game isn't a guaranteed win unless it's against a tanking bottom feeder . This is who he is right now. Racks up empty calorie stats when the game is already out of reach and he has zero pressure to perform. The low IQ Green of the last 2 years is still with us today, basketball gods help us.
     
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  11. jerryclark

    jerryclark Member

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    Jalen Green is a Randy Wittman certified future Super Star
     
  12. BigMaloe

    BigMaloe Contributing Member

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    Great post.

    Always nice obviously to have added context.

    I disagree with him not being like Jaylen Brown. Obviously he isnt the defender Brown is but their roles are very similar. Green is being held accountable and forced to play defense, and its been pretty good, not great, sometimes bad, but overall good defense.

    He is the clear #2 guy on offense behind Sengun, sometimes #3 behind FVV as well. That lines up in similarity to a lot of the other guys role on this list of players.

    Jalens 3rd year is still underway. We dont know of how many wins we will have, how the playoffs will come out if we even make them. He could drop to 15pts/game or even jump to 25 a game.

    Hes inconsistent because a lot of his shots come from difficult looks instead of easy ones, and he isnt getting the line enough. He needs a reliable goto shot and needs to learn to create contact to draw fouls.
     
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  13. MadMax

    MadMax Contributing Member

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    I would argue he’s the #2 scorer but the 3rd best offensive player

    I would also argue his defense is being way overrated on this message board at this point. That it may be better than the awful it was prior doesn’t make it good. He’s not a good defender. He loses his man way too often.
     
  14. cml750

    cml750 Member

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    While I have not been very impressed with Green up to this point, I am not ready to write him off 17 games into the first season under a real coach. Silas was historically bad. Lets give Ime at least the rest of the season to see if he can turn Jalen around. He likely will never be a superstar in the league but he may become a decent #3 guy or 6th man. If he does not progress the rest of the season under Ime then it is time to part ways with him.
     
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  15. MadMax

    MadMax Contributing Member

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    I am totally fine with that. That’s a realistic expectation. Having said that, if another team values him higher and is willing to pay for it, I’d definitely listen.
     
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  16. Entropy

    Entropy Member

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    Judging from both the eye test and advanced stats, Green is not very effective or efficient right now on the offensive end which should be his strength.

    OWS, ranked 403.
    WS, ranked 203.
    OBM, ranked 105.
    BPM, ranked 129.
    VORP, ranked 139...
     
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  17. T for 3

    T for 3 Member

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    If you think Jalen Green has been good this year, you aren't watching games. Alarm bells should be ringing. Low IQ, bad handle, extremely inconsistent shooter, inability to finish...The list goes on. Look at numbers alone doesn't paint a clear enough picture of what actually goes on.

    This is who he has been, and It doesn't look like he has changed one bit except for increased defensive effort. I was really excited for the first few games when he was really playing within the offense, making better reads and taking good shots, but it didn't last.

    His shooting numbers are massively inflated by the occasional shooting hot streak, but as a whole I would much rather have Tari on the court in crunch time.

    I hope he proves me wrong. I think he can, but I don't think he will.
     
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  18. MadMax

    MadMax Contributing Member

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    I said this in the game thread…He is a make or miss player. If the shot isn’t falling, he brings very little else.
     
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  19. Easy

    Easy Boban Only Fan
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    I think most of the time when a team trades a young player who is not fully developed, they don't get fair return back. When you are shopping someone who is still on rookie contract, other teams know that you are giving up on him. What you get is lowball offers not based on his potential but on his current performance level.
     
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  20. beardsanity713

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    Jalen has all the tools no doubt.
    His BB IQ isn't there yet
    Doesn't read the game that well.
    No offensive counters.
    His athleticism and quickness is what has gotten him by
    Great in Iso against average defenders.
    & When he gets hot its fun to watch.
    Not as bad as past seasons but defense is average at best.
     
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