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Jalen Greens 3rd Year Analysis Vs Current SGs

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by BigMaloe, Dec 1, 2023.

  1. TheBeastSystem

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    green for ivey straight up
     
    Jontro likes this.
  2. BigMaloe

    BigMaloe Member

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    Kobe Bryant in his 3rd year was avg. 19.9/5.3/3.8 on 46/26/84 with a .549 ts%

    Which is wild to think about because he was an all-star in yr 2 at only 15.4/3.1/2.5, missed it yr 3, then continued making the all-star game 17 straight times.
     
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  3. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

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    You deserve a lot of credit for digging into the facts and letting opinions follow.
    Much too often, the opinions on this board precede the facts.
     
    Y2JT, Monkeychef02, roslolian and 3 others like this.
  4. shakes05

    shakes05 Rookie

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    Everyone who tries to post these stats to justify Jalen Green of being a future Star needs to stop...he's more of a Cuttino Mobley type of player, very streaky...when he's hot he's and when he's cols he's cold. Stats are very skewed, always trust the eyeball test. Trusting stats will make you overpay a player. I just don't seeing Jalen Green being that player to build around Sengun
     
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  5. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Member

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    Nah. That isn't his role. This isn't a "dump the ball to one player and clear out" type of offense. Green is asked by Udoka to create for himselfand others for long stretches of games also.

    He is literally tied with Sengun in usage.
     
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  6. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Member

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    Cuttino Mobley wasn't in the nba yet at Green's age. They are not similar at all.
     
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  7. glimmertwins

    glimmertwins Member

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    TheBeastSystem for nobody - straight up.
     
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  8. verysimplejason

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    LOL!!! The fact that you called me fanboy without any proof or stats make you laughable. You had the memory of a 1 year old. I don't mind if you trade the whole team. What I want is to win. But unreasonable people like you are always bottom tier. Such negativity are not helpful at all. I want to be objective but you're just simply trolling.
     
  9. BigMaloe

    BigMaloe Member

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    I'm not trying to justify Green being a future all-star. What I am doing is comparing him to the leagues current best SGs and where they were in relation to hopefully gain some insight.

    Even if he doesnt become an all-star, I think its safe to say Green will be considerred a top 10 SG in the league at least. Comparing his 3rd year to others, its clear to me the future has a bunch of different paths Jalen could possibly take, some better than others.

    Now after doing this experiment I will say I'm more optimistic in his chances of being an all-star or fringe all-star player than I had before because I gained a bit of perspective. Often times we are just too laser focused on our own team/players and it can cloud our judgement. Especially when you factor in expectations and lack thereof.
     
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  10. Corrosion

    Corrosion Member

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    I don't really care to compare Jalen to anyone else. They are all so unique, comparisons never seem to do either party justice.

    What I would like to know is what exactly does Jalen do well.

    We know he's an explosive athlete, but what basketball skills does he possess?

    Finishing at the rim has improved from .591 to .735. League Average is currently .701.

    3 pt Shooting - He's improved to .360 which is right at the league average of .362.

    Mid range shooting - Utterly Terrible.
    From 3-10 feet .315 compared to a league average of .455
    From 10-16 he's .273 where league average is .447.

    Jalen Green 2023-24 Shooting | Basketball-Reference.com
    2023-24 NBA Season Summary | Basketball-Reference.com

    I really think this is where he can make the most improvement, in the mid range. If he gets to the rim he can finish well enough, it's when he can't get all the way to the rim that the efficiency drops significantly. He just doesn't make the right play often enough in that situation.


    Ball handling - average for a 2 guard.

    As a passer - average for a 2 guard.

    Rebounding - again average for the position.

    As a defender, as much as he has improved under Udoka, he's still pretty bad. Sure, he blocked Luka but how many times has he been beat on back cuts, missed rotations or failed to close out on shooters ....


    So other than being a bouncy athlete and "our guy" ..... what are we basing all this optimism on?
     
  11. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Member

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    Aren't you the guy who doesn't understand how guys like KJ Martin have higher scoring efficiency than guys like Devin Booker and use use role player scoring efficiency to say that Green is worse than those said players?
     
  12. Corrosion

    Corrosion Member

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  13. Dobbizzle

    Dobbizzle Member

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    Nah that's DD's new weird narrative because of those few games in the G-league bubble. Bear in mind that this is the guy who last season was trying to run the narrative that KPJ was really only a second or third year player not the fourth year player he actually was. No consistency, but a lot of bias.
     
  14. StroudAndYorDaddy

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    does anyone think harden signing with the rockets would have been good and possibly a passing of the torch to the jalen green as the next up and coming great guard for the city

    I know harden aint too popular around these parts, but i find it intresting the the young guards he has played with since he has left houston have spoken very highly of him and how much he has helped their game when it comes to finding easier ways to break down defenses and score/facilitate. For example Cam Thomas and Tyrese Maxey have nothing but great things to say about what harden did for their development as young guards. I dont know if harden would have helped jalen green the same way, but thats besides the point because now we will never know
     
  15. JayGoogle

    JayGoogle Member

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    Yeah it's always been BS its based more on age than anything.

    Green was a 19 year old rook and is only 21 now, he's still a baby, many players come into the league the age he is right now. For example, Brandon Miller is 21, Jaime Jaquez is OLDER than Green, our own Amen is 21...

    So yeah, if Green had entered the league at 21 and be 23-24 years old I would get the concern but he's still a kid and I think he can still be everything we hoped for him to be. Honestly this year if he would just play better on the road lol...
     
  16. AlperenSengun

    AlperenSengun Member

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    I think he is improving finally this year and this is the most important thing. His defense and playmaking is already better. For shooting form and driving to the basket, we can wait till the end of the season easily.
     
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  17. Deckard

    Deckard Blade Runner
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    Good heavens.
     
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  18. Corrosion

    Corrosion Member

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    [​IMG]
     
  19. topfive

    topfive CF OG

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    Stroud for Bryce Young straight up.

    Wheeeeeee!
     
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  20. Stephen_A

    Stephen_A Member

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    I would go deeper into the numbers in terms of where and how he scores relative to the top guards in the league.

    Here are Green’s paint numbers and fouls drawn per game last year since he only played 16 games this season and Included these numbers as well just to show his numbers thus far this year. I included some top combo/2 guards 3rd year numbers to compare.

    Green 22-23
    Restricted Area: 55.2%
    Paint (Non RA): 39.4%
    Less 5ft: 53.5%
    5-9 ft: 36%
    Fouls Drawn: 4.1

    Green 23-24
    Restricted Area: 62.1%
    Paint (Non RA): 33.6%
    Less 5ft: 57.1%
    5-9 ft: 26.3%
    Fouls Drawn: 4.2


    Fox
    RA: 63.1%
    Paint Non RA: 43.4%
    Less than 5 ft: 61.2%
    5-9 ft: 44.9%
    Fouls Drawn: 5.5

    Booker
    RA: 59.2%
    Paint Non RA: 33.7%
    Less than 5 ft: 57.7%
    5-9 ft: 33.3%
    Fouls Drawn: 5.4

    SGA
    RA: 61.4%
    Paint Non RA: 49.6%
    Less than 5 ft: 61.2%
    5-9 ft: 52.6%
    Fouls Drawn: 5.3

    As you see here Green shot lower % in RA area than the top guards which all shot around 60% in RA. Their non RA paint scoring is also
    better (book negligible). Green has done better in RA this year but shooting considerably lower in that non RA area for some reason. He is also getting about 1 less foul a game than these top guys.

    Butt looking deeper Last year Green had 262 FTA on drives. This is more than Fox, Booker, Trae, Kyrie, and Edwards in 2022-23. Only guards that went to line more on drives is Morant and Luka. This supports the eye test that Green gets fouled a lot going to the paint.

    On ISO plays he had a Shooting Foul Freq of 14.6% and and1 freq of 4.5%.

    Fox had SFF 14.7% and1 3.8%
    Edwards SFF of 6.7% and1 freq of 1.4%.
    Book SFF 13.7% and1 2.2%

    For pick and rolls Green had
    SFF 13.8% and and 1 frequency of 2.4%

    Fox had 11.8% and 2.5%
    Book 10.6% and 3.8%
    Edwards 10% and 2.8%

    Green’s numbers on drives, ISO’s and PNR shows he is getting into the paint, scoring, and getting a high rate of fouls compared to some of the best guards in the league. But his FG% is lower than most of these guards. His FG% on drives last year is at 44% compared to 50% and up for the elite guards including year 3 Edwards. His FG% on PNR is also lower. Size and strength can be attributed to the lower FG% on drives and PNR plays as the elite guards all play a more physical style using contact in the paint to score. I noticed he doesn’t drive his body and bounce players off him in the paint and usually relies on finesse and quickness resulting in blocks or turnovers at times. Maybe Strength is what he needs to work on to get that paint FG% up. Let’s see if he can maintain that 60% RA scoring.
     
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