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Jalen Greens 3rd Year Analysis Vs Current SGs

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by BigMaloe, Dec 1, 2023.

  1. BigMaloe

    BigMaloe Contributing Member

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    Jalen Green in his 3rd year (thru 16 games) is avg. 19.6/4.4/3.4 on 43/36/79 and a .558 ts%

    Compare that to these current SGs who I believe he is outperforming in comparison:

    Jaylen Brown in his 3rd year was avg. 13/4.2/1.4 on 46/34/66 and a .547 ts%
    Zach LaVine in his 3rd year was avg. 18.9/3.4/3 on 46/38/83 and a .576 ts%
    Bradley Beal in his 3rd year was avg. 15.3/3.8/3.1 on 42/40/78 and a .521 ts%
    Dejounte Murray didnt play his 3rd season but in his 4th year he avg. 10.9/5.8/4.1 on 46/37/80 and a .524 ts%
    CJ McCollum was 24 in his 3rd year and avg. 20.8/3.2/4.3 on 45/41/82 and a .544 ts%
    Klay Thompson was 23 in his 3rd year and avg. 18.4/3.1/2.2 on 44/41/79 and a .555 ts%
    Jamal Murray in his 3rd year was avg. 18.2/4.2/4.8 on 43/36/85 and a .538 ts%

    Interestingly enough JG4 is more efficient then everyone except LaVine and, which is a shocker considerring how much better of a shooter Klay and CJ are/were. Albeit, I will admit that ts% isnt the end all be all so I consider both players to have been more efficient.

    Who he does trail behind are the following players in my opinion:

    Devin Booker in his 3rd year was avg. 24.9/4.5/4.7 on 43/38/88 and a .561 ts%
    Anthony Edwards in his 3rd year was avg. 24.6/5.8/4.4 on 46/37/75 and a .564 ts% (made all-star)
    Desmond Bane in his 3rd year was avg. 21.5/5/4.4 on 48/40/88 and a .606 ts%
    Tyrese Maxey in his 3rd year was avg. 20.3/2.9/3.5 on 48/43/84 and a .605 ts%

    This was a fascinating data collection experiment to me, so I decided to share. I am curious and hopeful to see how the year continues to shape our young prospect.

    If you would like to add other players or even historical player comps, please do.
     
    #1 BigMaloe, Dec 1, 2023
    Last edited: Dec 1, 2023
  2. Houston77

    Houston77 COOKIES AND CAKE, MY TEAM BAKED!
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    Great stuff. Funny, I read on here that 99% of stars break out in their third season. If you can’t believe what you read on the internet, what can you believe?
     
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  3. mfastx

    mfastx Member
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    This is very interesting. The archetype for a Green type of player is clearly typically a later bloomer a few years into being a pro. This is why I've always maintained patience and waiting to judge after several years in the NBA. The overreactions on this site are hilarious.

    I'd be very happy if he ended up a top 30 guy some years similar to the first group. However, I'm not sure I see him in that second group, top 20 or soon-to-be top 20 level guys. Guess we'll see.
     
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  4. napalm06

    napalm06 Huge Flopping Fan

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    Including the TS% was helpful because that was my biggest curiosity. I've been disgruntled with Jalen but he really does just need more time. He's still recovering from Silas-Porter syndrome. He has gotten smarter and better defensively but he needs to be working on his handles and 4 foot finishes at all times. His TS% could take a bump from that and I die inside whenever a dribble goes 7 feet high.
     
  5. BamBam

    BamBam Contributing Member

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    [​IMG]


    Go Rockets!!!
    .......
    .......
    .......
     
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  6. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Contributing Member

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    I doubt Jalen will be at 20ppg by the end of the season. We are looking at less than a quarter of a season where there is a major adjustment period of a new system and new roster around him.

    By the end of the season I'm hopping he's more closer to the third year Booker/ant stats of around 23-25 ppg on 55+% ts.

    His last four games hopefully is what he is going to be in terms of scoring efficiency for the rest of the season which is around 24 ppg on 59% ts.
     
  7. Houston77

    Houston77 COOKIES AND CAKE, MY TEAM BAKED!
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    I’ll also add that Green is younger than several of those guys were in their third season, such as Jaylen Brown, Desmond Bane, and Tyrese Maxey.
     
  8. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Contributing Member

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    I would say if Jalen is somewhere around 23 ppg 58% ts 4 apg on a roughly 40~ win team by the end of the season he's still at Booker/Ant trajectory.
     
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  9. jerryclark

    jerryclark Member

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    Not a single one of these players were the 1st option on their team aside from murray (who is ass) and booker who is obviously head and shoulders above green

    You also failed to factor in the increase in pace and scoring across the league
     
  10. jordnnnn

    jordnnnn Member

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    Thread started with logical opinions based on support of relevant statistical evidence.


    [​IMG]
     
  11. AroundTheWorld

    AroundTheWorld Insufferable 98er
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    Good thread! Support our guys.
     
  12. verysimplejason

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    Interesting facts!!! That and the fact that he's playing with a new coach and a new system. I'm not sure what others were eating. I'll be fine giving JG another 2 years to make it work. I bet, he'll be better by year 4.
     
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  13. verysimplejason

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    Did you ever think that he's playing for a new headcoach and new system right now? The fact that he's still performing like that attests to how good he is.
     
  14. xaos

    xaos Member

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    I know he isn't used as often, but I'd also like to add Jamal Murray using those same stats:
    18.2/4.2/4.8 on .437/.367/.848 53.8TS.

    I believe he's an interesting player because I think him and Green are both being asked to do very similar things (3rd year into league) and are both players who don't have a whole offense built around them, but can explode any game (team ceiling raiser, but not much of a floor raiser)
     
  15. jerryclark

    jerryclark Member

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    did you ever think many of those players also had multiple coaches, horrible coaches, and new systems as well?

    Nice "gotcha" though
     
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  16. BigMaloe

    BigMaloe Contributing Member

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    Murray imo is a bit more of a PG but none the less i added him to the OP as i agree with what you are saying.
     
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  17. Houston77

    Houston77 COOKIES AND CAKE, MY TEAM BAKED!
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    Huh? None of these points make any sense given the OP provided TS%.
     
  18. BigMaloe

    BigMaloe Contributing Member

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    ill try to find pace of play stats to compare, not sure it has changed much tbh.

    Edit: The following are the teams Pace of play that season(vs the league that year).

    Jalen Green
    - 96.3 (28th of 30)
    Jaylen Brown - 99.6 (16th of 30)
    Zach LaVine - 94.6 (25th of 30)
    Bradley Beal - 93.7 (18th of 30)
    Dejounte Murray - 100.5 (14th of 30)
    CJ McCollum - 96.0 (13th of 30)
    Klay Thompson - 96.2 (6th of 30)
    Jamal Murray - 97.7 (27th of 30)
    Devin Booker - 100.3 (3rd of 30)
    Anthony Edwards - 101.0 (7th of 30)
    Desmond Bane - 101.1 (5th of 30)
    Tyrese Maxey - 96.9 (27th of 30)

    @jerryclark Looks like JG4 plays at a bottom half of pace in comparison, so that argument doesnt really pan out.
     
    #18 BigMaloe, Dec 1, 2023
    Last edited: Dec 1, 2023
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  19. hlmbasketball

    hlmbasketball Member
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    He's doing better than I thought.
     
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  20. invocux

    invocux Member

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    Progression is linear only if you have good fundamentals. It's the ability to replicate a good behaviour on the court more often than not. In bb if you want ball to consistently go in you have to shoot in in certain ways. There aren't 140 ways to become a good shooter. You can never be consistently good from 3pt line if your release point is too low. That behaviour caps your 3pt percentage. Let's say you have good shooting form but can't make your shots. Then it's very likely you will find your shot soon. Jabari is the example. He has a very good shooting form it's beautiful but he was terrible from behind the arc. People were mad worried because a guy with that form had to shoot much better. Then he improved as expected. Or let's say you have a soft touch around the rim but somehow can't make your layups don't worry you will certainly start making them soon.

    What makes a player consistent is his fundamentals. You have the ability to do that **** again and again. What makes a dart player so good? I dunno probably his hand motion. Let's say your hand has to move forwards only 1,2 meters then you should release it to hit the bullseye and there is a little room for mistakes. It has to be bw 1,15 and 1,20 meters and those dudes are capable of landing on this interval 9 times out of 10. That makes them consistent.

    Every single dude you mentioned other than Dejounte and Brown who btw doesn't even play like Green have better shooting form than Green so linear progression theory applies for them. They were expected to get better based off of their fundamentals and they did. How am i supposed to watch a kid who almost entirely relies on his athleticism, has mid shooting form, handles and still expect him to take a similar leap others on your list took? If anything his shooting form is carbon copy if Clarkson's shooting form. Clarkson's career 3pt % is .338 while Green's 3pt % is .342.

    Your data isn't fascinating because it only shows that players with good fundamentals gradually get better which is already expected. I would get fascinated if you had brought me the list of shooting guards who were subpar 3pt shooters who went on to become cornerstones of their franchises (In modern era where 3pt shooting matters a lot).
     
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